The circa 2008 Roy Jones presents a big stylistic worry for Calzaghe. Of course, Jones isn't the fighter he was when he was 32, but he isnt the fighter he was when he was 35/36 and getting KO'd, either - he's better. Jones still has enough speed (he's still faster than just about anybody else, in a single movement explosion; but he can't do it consistently anymore) to catch Joe with counters - Joe is wide open and we saw Hopkins put him down with a well times counter-right; Jones can land this same punch and with more power. Jones is/has been an underrated technician, student of the game and all round ring general; he's watched Calzaghe and knows how to counter him- it just comes down to whether he can pull the trigger (I think he can). But the main reason I favour Jones is I think his new style (a sort of imitation of Winky Wrights earmuff guard) is a great style to beat Calzaghe with; he doesn't have the power to burst through the high, conservative guard, and he doesnt have the physical strength to move Jones around, clinch him and create openings that way. If you look at fighters who use this style and their careers, it usually comes undone against bigger, more powerful fighters: Winky suddenly looked beatable and hittable against the bigger Taylor and Hopkins, but impenetrable against smaller, arguably better fighters like Trinidad and Mosely. What Calzaghe will do is flurry like crazy and rack up a lot of points (judges score punches thrown, not landed- or at least in part activity is a big point scorer) - but I don't think it'll be enough; Jones will break out of his shell often enough to land a couple of big left hooks and crosses to put Joe down and out - maybe scoring a couple of knockdowns before a mid-round KO.
If Jones just slumps himself against the ropes like he was doing often against Hanshaw and Trinidad then things aren't looking up for Roy, although I really would love nothing more than to see him win.
I would praise the heavens if Roy KO'ed Joe Calzaghe. I swear if he wins, I will get wasted to no end.
Good thread....but I would argue that the "Winky Shell" that Jones used in the Trinidad fight is more effective against straight punchers but can leave you open to getting hit by awkward fighters like Calzaghe that throw from weird angles. I remember Wright getting hit more than usual against the highly unorthodox Solimon....but it was good to see Roy finally adapt his style to compensate for his loss of mobility and reflexes. it was as if he finally admitted to himself that he wasn't superman anymore.
If he does that will be a day I will NEVER EVER EVER forget, will be REALLY happy about it that I can't even describe how happy I will be. Thinking of it gets me excited already though I know it won't happen.
I think Roy has a somewhat decent shot. He's not what he used to be, but Calzaghe looked like an old man against BHOP. Nobody looks good against BHOP, but still.
Very good post. I do think Roy is going have a gameplan specific to Joe. Honestly all Roy has to do is not be afraid, I'm so scared of him just sitting on the ropes and Joe throwing 100 unanswered punches, landing none and the fight gets stopped. If Roy can pull this off though I'll be satisfied for the rest of my life as a boxing fan.
In the sense that Jones has a certain shamelessness and modesty to him now is a really good thing. He'll stay in the pocket and throw back with everything he's got because there's not much else he seems to be comfortable with at this point. On the flipside though Roy's defense is not very good at all, whatsoever. That's his biggest liability at this point. Calzaghe is going to do his best to swarm all over Roy on top of the guard, and Roy might let that happen more than he should.
Roy's shell is pretty shitty though, ain't it? Calzaghe loves the shell anyways, and he's not exactly tiny in comparison to Jones.. He's just waiting for an opponent to raise the guard and then he can **** all over the guy with his girl flurries. Good thing this fight isn't taking place in the UK.