The reason you get a decent breakdown is that he only can adjust to offensive fighters. What happens if the fighter waits for Calzaghe to come forward? Well, we would get a really boring fight! Don't think that Calzaghe has the power or pure offensive skills to make a fight entertaining! If the fight Pavlik with Pavlik happens, I think that Calzaghe will lose even though Pavlik only can fight offensive! Pavlik is to strong and has lots of power!
Lot of folks say stuff like that ; if Kessler couldn't , Pavlik couldn't, blah blah blabedy blah... Why? What makes you folks so certain that Kessler is superior to Pavlik? They're only seperated by 8 lbs and Pav is a big middleweight. Pav crushed a guy that Kessler wouldn't fight and what wins does Kessler have that are better than Kelly's wins over Taylor? I think Booradley put up a resonable scenario for a Pavlik victory and the only way of refuting it that you have is to declare Kessler's superiority to Pav? That's the best you can come up with? Sounds kinda' thin to me... I think I'd probably favor Cal over Kelly by very close UD or SD, but not based on that Pav is not as good as Kessler. I'd base it on how good Cal has looked in some of his fights and if Pav beats Hops in convincing fashion it'll make me think twice about favoring Cal over KP. Finally, I'd take Pavlik over Kessler in a FOTY candidate by late TKO.
I watched Calzaghe/Kessler live, and then watched it a couple more times. I had a clear decision for Joe. Styles make fights, and I can easily see a scenario where Pavlik beats Calzaghe, but loses to Kessler. I've stated many times that I think Kessler is the biggest threat to Pavlik. There is not one single quality orthodox boxer on Kelly's resume'. There could be a reason for that. Joe's biggest strengths are work-rate and stamina. He beat Kessler because, to his credit, he seemed 100% willing to leave absolutely everything in the ring. Kessler did not seem to have that willingness. I do not know if it was the hand injury, or if he lacks heart. Whatever the cause, for much of that fight he looked like the proverbial deer in the headlights. I seriously doubt if workrate and stamina are going to buy a win against KP. Especially not considering Joe would pay a heavy price for every one of his innaccurate and sloppy flurries. Go back and look at the end of Calzaghe/Manfredo. Joe threw over 20 punches, but only about 5 actually landed. Pavlik would have put Joe on his ass in that situation. Go back and look at that video loop of Joe doing his infamous doggy paddle against BHop. Pavlik would have ended the fight right there.
Calzaghe clear UD. The key to beating Pavlik is taking away his jab and countering when he try's to throw the jab or lead punch's. Calzaghe would beat Pavlik to the punch and win down the strech.
I said Kelly has more power than kessler, size has sweet **** all to do with it. I merely stated IMO Kessler is more skillful than Pavlik and the blueprint that boo set out was kesslers bprint aswell, and it didnt ****in work. I would love to see Taylor-Kessler as much as i would love to see Calzaghe-Pavlik. And no i agree Kesler doesnt have a win on his record against as big a name as Taylor coz he lost his to a bigger name,Joe.
Excellent post!!!! I disaggree the Pav would not test Joe's weakeness. Chiefly these two. Watch Joe when he goes to the body with his left. He almost invariably leaves the right side of his head open. That is a very dangerous thing to do against KP. He has stopped guys with left hooks (tomato cans) but of more signifigance watch Taylor in the corner. There was always a chance he could come back until he got hit in the head with a left hook; then he was done. Second; Joe would have to really watch himself about throwing those wide slaps. Pavlik would fire back, and if Joe got caught, well .... we all know what happens when KP lands flush.
I dont think for a minute Pavlik would be covering himself up on the ropes without throwing back a SINGLE shot for that amount of time so that comparrison is stupid, Again, the reason i said the kessler fight when i answered your question is because thats the type of tactics Joe will employ, he didnt do that against Kessler coz he would have been smacked on his arse. Same with Bhop, Pavlik wouldnt be holding and only throwing 3-5 punches a round would he? Joes warryness(if thats a word) of kelly would stop him doing that. Joes tactics would be that of the Kessler and Lacy fights, in and out short quick flurries from ****ed up angles, no windmills, doggypaddles or whatever else unless he had him hurt and thought he could take him out. It would be a tough fight as ive said before but if i had to put my house on the outcome it would be Joe on points.
Leave Lacy out of this. Pavlik and Lacy both hit hard. The simliarites end right there! Kessler choked against Joe. Of course I don't think Mikkel's corner, with their brillaint instructions like "hit him back," helped him out much. Pavlik has a better corner than Kessler, he's far more aggressive, he's busier, and until Kessler proves otherwise, I'll say Kelly has a lot more heart. Comparing Kessler's performance to what Kelly might do falls apart on many levels.
But comparing the manfredo fight to a Calzaghe-Pavlik fight is solid!? Are you sure you are a Pavlik fan. Nothing i have written is in any way derogatory, nor have i stated it would be a walk in the park for Joe. As for the comparison of Lacy and Pavlik-who said that? I said the TACTICS that CALZAGHE would employ would be similar to the Lacy fight, nothing else would be,but the end result, Points win for Joe.
The simple fact of the matter is that ALL these anologies and comparisons break down at some point. I think the one thing that most people can agree on is that this is the fight that should be happening now; not Pavlik/Hopkins or Calzaghe/Jones. HBO wanted Pavlik/Calzaghe, Top Rank and Team Pavlik wanted it, Frank Warren wanted it, the fans wanted it, and Joe spent 7 or 8 months claiming he wanted it. Apparently Joe changed his mind. I expect Joe to ride off into the sunset with a win over RJJ who is 25% of what he was in his prime. He wants no part of Pavlik.