This is by far the biggest test Ward is in and I admire his courage for participating. If he wins this then it's the beginning of a great career.
Ward has all the skills to win. The question is what happens if Kessler connects a few times. If Ward can take some big shots and come back, he can win the fight on points. If not...
Without Bute and Balzsay involved in it the tourney will not establish "the heir to Calzaghe's throne." If Pavlik moves up and fights Balzsay in October, and wins, a Bute/Pavlik fight next year is probably inevetiable. The winner of that fight would have just as much right to the #1 spot in the division as anyone else. However this goes down, if the IBF and WBO titles end up with the same fighter, a fight between that guy, and the tournament winner would establish the proper "heir to Calzaghe's throne." As far as your original scenario goes, if Taylor beat Abraham, I think interest in the tournament would increase. I know I would be jacked to the moon, and ready to back JT to the hilt. I don't think Dirrell beating Froch would get much respone from average fans either way. If Ward beats Kessler, we are looking at a super star on the rise, but the average fan doesn't even know who Mikkell is. So, again, I would not expect that to affect the tourney miuch.
I was thinking this too, i mean if either of the young fighters is exposed in the first stage, do we end up with a four man tournament and dead, meaningless matches in stage 3.. I suppose the best thing for the fighters is that even the one's who lose their "0" in the first stage, will get 2 more big fights right? Which might not happen normally..
I don't believe it's single elimination, so it wouldn't diminish any interest at all. It would increase it, likely.
I'm sure he will be able to handle the shots without serious problems, Kessler is not a one punch KO artist and Ward is taking too much **** for being dropped early in his career. It happens to the best, Pacquiao was dropped from a clean shot and looked seriously hurt/out of it getting up against Hussein yet later he takes punches from ATG quality fighters in Morales, Marquez and Barrera without any serious problems. These things happen early in the fighter's career, these guys don't go through the same training camps fighting "stay active" opposition than they do for major fights as it takes too much out of the fighter. Other similar situations, Muhammad Ali being dropped numerous times early in his career then taking shots from ATG opposition with serious problems, Holyfield, Barrera, DLH, Hopkins, Calzaghe, Leonard and MANY others share similar situations.