If Muhammad Ali didn't have a 3.5 year ban how would his career have looked?

OK, so, Ali came back in late 1970, having 2 fights and let's say 9 months of activity. How much more wear and tear would Ali have in 3-6 months more with 1-2 more fights more? Also, Frazier I wasn't present. Frazier wasn't the fighter he was in 1971 in 1968.

 

Well, I was originally answering the OP's:

Hence, the other side of the coin of potential wear and tear for that 3.5 years instead of rest. And I was simply using the same times they all fought as references. One or two fights could still have unforeseen injuries. Still, I pick Frazier 1 and Norton to win even if Ali had additional 3.5 years of activity when they fought.

 

Patterson, Bonavena and Spencer were already being looked at as upcoming defences. So not unlikely that he would close out '67 with them. For '68 Frazier, Quarry and Ellis would really be the ones left standing. He could probably make room for a rematch with Chuvalo there as well. After that there's very little left. Practically MacFoster, some fringe contenders and rematches. 69-72 would probably be a bit of a waste land, with a rematch with Frazier in '70 or '71 as the one bright spot. Here I think we have the first potential banana peel for Ali if he's overconfident.

Then it starts to be on the uptick going into '73 with Foreman, Lyle, Bugner, Shavers and Norton. Norton was really a fringe contender at this point, so he might have to wait another couple of years for his shot. Any time from '73 onwards he's a very risky proposition for an ageing and probably somewhat complacent Ali. As for Foreman, I just think Ali had his number. He's not beating Ali until the later half of the 70's imo, and Ali might have retired by then. He would probably come back, though, until he didn't have any more to give. Just like in real life.

So that's 12 defences by the end of '67. If he kept up 4-5 defences a year he would have beaten Louis's record before he turned 30. The big risk I see for him there is a Frazier rematch, but he should know by then that he needed his A game for Joe.

 

Yeah, I think that's entirely plausible.

 

The FOTC was by no means a one way whooping and it was a lot closer than many have it, just imo.

Frazier was lauded for the punishment he absorbed in the FOTC but conversely, it seems Ali wasn’t duly rewarded in the scoring for meting out that punishment - as if Joe, ironically, was receiving score worthy credit for withstanding Ali’s own excellent work.

First fight in back from exile, Ali looked good for 3 rounds vs Quarry but appeared uncharacteristically tired when it was stopped - and Ali admitted as much after the fight.

Second fight in, he still looked very rusty vs Bonavena but gutted out a win and to be fair, it was the best possible one fight prep before going into face Frazier - a very hard, near full 15 rounder.

3rd fight back, he looked better again vs Frazier but clearly still couldn’t keep the pace he once did, slowing down after giving Joe a drubbing over about the first 4 rounds.

Vs Frazier Ali had 2 things going against him - substantive, irreversible deteriorations and he still wasn’t match fit to his fullest, second career potential anyway.

Without the exile Ali would’ve incurred more as you go wear/tear but as at the time he stopped boxing, at his peak, he was copping far less damage than most fighters.

The exile drew a clear line between Ali taking not so much punishment and then, immediately taking that much more punishment due to his years out of the ring.

If Ali had fought through to ‘71 he wouldn’t have been anywhere near as badly off as he was against Frazier. He didn’t display the stamina or mobility of old.

Even Cus D’Amato reasoned that Ali couldn’t possibly come back as the same fighter - not due to natural aging but due to the intervening years of inactivity.

Cus was also concerned about the punishment second career Ali more or less invited and was willing to take in training in compensation for his deteriorations.

I can’t see any fight in Ali’s first reign that suggests Ali wouldn’t have upheld the same durability that he displayed against Frazier as and when required.

Ali weighed a first career high of 214 1/2 lbs for the first Chuvalo in 1966.

He was still very mobile, energised from go to whoa (over 15 rounds) and plenty tough with notable power behind his punches, particularly when planted.

I think that’s the optimal version that would beat on Frazier similarly in the early rounds but not tire or let up as he did in the FOTC.

All in all, without exile, Ali goes undefeated for that much longer until a notable downturn, and yes, that would likely come that much earlier had he fought through the exile years - but, in counter balance, he might not have begun taking that much more punishment as early as he did in his second career.

Again, all just imo.

 

He’d’ve been taking on prime Jimmy Ellis instead of a past his best Jimmy Ellis, so the layoff was a blessing in disguise, as that may well have been the undoing of what his legacy has come to be today.

 

Yeah, I think Joe deservedly won, but round by round it's close.

 

The whole refusing induction thing was a ruse to avoid peak Ellis. Ali knew that the game would be up the moment Jimmy made the move up to HW.

 

I’d have to say better in some ways, but worse in some.
Him having the layoff and coming back and by the time he won the title, his feet had slowed, which showed to degree that he had a lot of tricks and technical skills to fall back on, and also allowed him to show longevity.
If he didn’t have his exile, he may not have had those losses and may have retired undefeated, but who knows?

 

They took best prime years from him...like Tyson when he went to prison and Vitali when he had motobike crash....

 

Yeah, Frazier pulled away in the later rounds.