If Ortiz v Allen gets made for Dec 10th, do you make Allen the favourite?

Agreed, and I think your first point explains your last. It's a competitive fight so that's why we get AJ vs Molina. I'm guessing Hearn signed Ortiz to keep him at arm's length from Joshua until he can gauge how big a threat he is, build him up into this human wrecking ball and then sell AJ vs Ortiz to the casuals (some of whom are already on this forum blowing smoke up Ortiz's backside) and cash in. It's also an insurance policy... if Ortiz beats AJ, Hearn's got the new champion in his stable. It's a method Don King used for decades.