If Ward beats Dawson and looks good doing it...

I see what you're saying there. It makes sense, too.

I had always believed Ward would win because of:

* Ward's higher ring IQ
* Chad's mental lapses

However, I really think Scully has a unique connection with Chad. Dawson really impressed me against Hopkins. In the early middle rounds, Hopkins was getting in Chad's head. He was being Hopkins, and it started working. Iceman quickly got him on track, and he remained more focused throughout an entire 12 rounds than I recall seeing him in some time.

Chad wanted to make this fight to the point he was willing to drop to '68 and concede every advantage to Ward.

This, combined with the fact Ward once admitted to me in an interview that it took him 5 or 6 rounds in order to make his adjustment against Bika got me thinking....

One of my reasons for believing Chad would lose, may have been remedied. I believe Scully can and will keep Chad focused.

The question of weight? That could be a legitimate concern. For now, I'm taking Chad and Iceman at face value. I'm assuming this will not be a major issue, and I never felt weight (168, 175, or in between) would have determined the winner in this particular contest.

I think it's very close. But if Chad can operate the way he did against Hopkins and Scully keeps him focused (both of which I believe will happen), I think he takes it - even with Ward having the better ring IQ.

A Ward win would not surprise me, however. In fact, a dominating win for Ward where my prediction is far from the mark would not surprise me, either.

All of this said, I'm going with Chad. I think Ward will find him a tricky puzzle for too long, and that he will dig himself in a hole.

I'm seeing something like a SD: 115-113 x2, 112-116.

:smoke

 

Also, in the spirit of this thread, I think it's interesting to consider what might happen to Dawson in a P4P sense should he beat Ward, despite moving down to 168 and traveling to hostile territory in Oakland.

 

Bigger, but fighting at a weight he last made over six and a half years ago.

Ward put himself in a lose-lose situation. Once Froch bludgeoned Bute, Ward should have just moved up. There was nothing left at 168, and he would receive more credit in victory.

 

I really think you're underestimating what Chad is capable of.