If you're Victor Ortiz...

Test Floyd early and often, but don't over-exert your energy.

Stay active but measured and controlled. Try and disrupt Floyd's rhythm in spurts and flurry in strategic spots to maximize the appearance of effectiveness (even if what he is doing is actually ineffective).

Ortiz is easy to hit, so it is ESSENTIAL that he gains Floyd's respect early, but if he does happen to disturb Floyd, he needs to pace himself.

I figure he needs to be able to successfully disrupt Floyd's rhythm at least 3 times per round to have consistent success.

If he lets Floyd start controlling the range and pace, IT'S OVER! But Ortiz can't shoot his load early if he's having success.

Ortiz is lucky in the sense that he is a fast starter and other southpaws have given Floyd trouble early in the past. That, and the fact that Floyd has had a long layoff (which even Uncle Roger says will cause any fighter's skills to become diminished), Ortiz is fighting Mayweather in about as ideal of a situation as he could hope for.

Ortiz should be dangerous early and could maybe even score a surprising upset. This would not totally shock me.

But to me, Floyd showed a dimension of his game against Mosley that he had been hoarding, which we had never previously seen.

When Mosley hurt Floyd, his instinct was to fight him. I was impressed by his fighting spirit and the display of warrior mentality. Floyd overcame adversity.

At the end of the day, he's too talented for Ortiz.

Even if Ortiz executes his plan perfectly and gives Floyd some shaky moments earlier, I think Floyd has great survival instincts. I see him persevering in the event Ortiz has some early success, and I think Ortiz falls into trap after trap once Mayweather figures him out, gets his range, and starts tricking Ortiz into all types of bad positions which Floyd will exploit often.

Ortiz is easy to hit, and I think Floyd's reflexes are still sharp enough that he will evade the most dangerous incoming fire Ortiz unleashes.

Simply put, this is a tall order for Ortiz, but he does have a chance.

He will need to be more disciplined than we have ever seen him, though, and I doubt that the perfect performance of focus will be forthcoming this particular night.

I think Floyd will win by late mercy stoppage as he continuously peppers Ortiz at will in the later rounds. Floyd couldn't miss with that punch on Mosley, and Ortiz is probably even easier to catch with that punch than Mosley was.