Ilunga Makabu is 2/1 to KO Mchunu

I totally agree, I see a lot of people deluding themselves in the lead up to this fight. This is why....

Something that should be taken into consideration. I picked Mchunu to beat Lebedev, because Denis hadn't fought a southpaw in almost a decade and that one wasn't close to being slick. Also, it's not like Denis had been going out blasting mother****ers out of the ring lately, he was struggling to look impressive against the Mark Flanagan's and Mike Wilson's of the world. There's a reason why he retired afterward. Also, I picked Mchunu, because he was counter punching a counter puncher, he was faster and slicker, Lebedev is a counter punching southpaw, who isn't overly aggressive, that's the distinction between him and guys like Usyk and Makabu, who are aggressive volume punching southpaws, but more on that later.

Then the loss to Oosthuizen, sure it was controversial, but I scored it for Tommy the first time around, his work rate was higher, at the very least, a draw would've probably been preferable, still... it was Oosthuizen and he needed two attempts to beat him cleanly. Then we've got the thoroughly unimpressive Tishchenko. Who hits about as hard as Mchunu's grandmother, he could never legit hurt Kudryashov, in spite of the knockdown, which was due to Dmitry literally bending at the waist and getting clonked on top of the head as he was pulling back. Not even James Toney wouldn't have stayed on his feet in that scenario. But sure... it looks impressive, if you're easily impressed.

Makabu's struggles against Papin and Cieslak though, they loom large in everyone's minds. Why exactly? Papin and Cieslak are literally levels above Tishchenko and Oosthuizen. So much so, they'd batter both of them senseless. I would not hesitate for a second picking both of them to beat both by stoppage. For that matter, I would also not hesitate for a second in picking Cieslak and Papin to KO Mchunu as well. Then of course Makabu beat the dogpiss out of Durodola and Kudryashov, and yes... went down in the process. Well, going down against Kudryashov isn't a big deal, getting back up is. Not only did he get back up, he got back up and took the fight to him, walked his ass down and stopped him, something both Tischenko and Romanov, who KO's Heavyweights were incapable of accomplishing. So the reality is, Makabu has faced the far sterner tests, and beat them, even though to many, including myself, he was the underdog in a few of them.

Now, let's look at the first fight between these two. Seems like people are badly misremembering it. Mchunu, DID NOT school him and then gas in the 11th, he beat him for the first 5 rounds, then Makabu took over, won the next 5, and violently KO'd him in the next to last round. Also, he didn't gas, because he has a bad gas tank, he gassed because Makabu pounded his body like a drum. Mchunu's body is very open for right hooks, and he tagged him with them throughout. It's not all that dissimilar from what Usyk did to him. Usyk struggled for a few rounds, a southpaw like Makabu, then the volume started taking a toll, gassed Mchunu out, then Usyk stopped him. Something Lebede was incapable of doing, because... well, like I said before, he's not aggressive. The reality is, Mchunu has been in with a bunch of stylistically favorable matchups, he hasn't improved. The fact remains, aggressive volume punchng southpaws, Usyk, Bejenaru and Makabu, were and still are his kryptonite.

Now, could I be wrong? Maybe, if so... oh well, I like both. But I doubt it.