Fitch is not a sure bet over everyone outside of GSP at 170, but I think his resume makes him a lock as the #1 contender.
IMO, the only one of his last 6 fights which has been an impressive win against another top 5 fighter has been Alves, who has since lost again and dropped out of the top 5. I'm not blown away by his recent resume at all. I genuinely don't see how he has managed to separate himself from the rest of the pack so clearly in so many peoples' eyes.
If you're talking about whether he should be the #1 contender or not, it doesn't really matter how impressive his wins were because they all came against solid guys in the division and he hasn't lost since 2002 to anyone not named GSP and not another 170er can say that. There are some guys that I would give a chance against him but for all his boring non-fighting he manages to win the "fight" within the rules every time.
Some seem to be looking at it that way and some seem to be wondering if he's the second best (difference between next best and next contender). I personally think he's clearly got the second best resume but I think there are guys that would give him trouble and potentially beat him so he's not THE definitive gatekeeper for GSP.
He's probably the easiest to argue as the divisional no.2, but if he doesn't start at least trying to finish fights, or at least switch up his game plan a bit there's no way he should be getting a title shot again. He's stagnating and putting together wins over guys who aren't in the top 5 (with the exception of possibly the worst Thiago Alves that's ever fought in the UFC), and just like BJ did, someone will capitalise on his very obvious and one-dimensional gameplan.
He is the #2 contender.. Doesn't mean the man isn't painful to watch. Fitch should fight the winner of Shields/Ellenberger or the loser of GSP/Diaz (if the timing is right) for his title shot.
He lost his number 1 contender shot when he drew with a lightweight. Shields was the number 1, now Diaz is the number 1. Condit jumps ahead until Fitch gets a good win or beats BJ.
Fitch could beat either one of them and the latter match-up is obvious. Who's given Nick the most hell? Sherk, Parisyan, Sanchez, and Riggs who all wrestled him to death. Fitch is a far superior wrestler who's much more adept at smothering opponents on the floor than any of those guys who have already LnPed him. As for Shields, I'd pick Fitch in that one, as well, because Jake's guard isn't that deadly, Jake can't take Fitch down, and Fitch for once in his life is the better striker.
Is it wrong that I would like to see Fitch and Shields fight? These guys specialise in neutralising fighters with their grappling. I'd want to see who wins that battle.
Fitch would beat Diaz very comfortably IMO, guy is nigh on impossible to sub or sweep now. I can see him shutting Shields down also.