Very good analysis, Rummy. Also, you have been heavyweight-centric lately so it is nice when you do videos in a different weight class. Inoue, has not looked the same in his last few fights. Since going to 122 he has been hit more often, been knocked down more often and has let guys go the distance more often. Personally, I think it is more related to age than the jump to junior featherweight but I am sure both factors play a part. Nakatani is very dangerous and has considerably more power than Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas, the two men who put Inoue down. At the moment I have Inoue winning by decision but I have waffling back and forth for two months. Luckily, I have until Saturday before I have to make my final choice for Kirk's prediction contest.
Good video as always Rummy. We're in agreement when it comes to the winner, but not method. I think Inoue is as methodical and calculated as they come, he realized that he was able to obliterate southpaws like Narvaez, Payano and Dasmarinas in the past. Then beat down southpaw Marlon Tapales. So he thought he could have his way with Nery, and paid for it. He learned a lesson quickly, tightened up his defense and dismantled him. Another southpaw he made easy work of was TJ Doheny, then got reckless against a switch hitter in Cardenas when he momentarily went southpaw, and got dropped. So in his last two matches, knowing full well that the Nakatani match was on the horizon, he took a ultra methodical risk averse approach to southpaw Akhmadaliev and dominated him from bell to bell. Then continued that against the orthodox Picasso just so he could stay in disciplined form, all building up to this career defining all time great Japanese showdown, that he wants to be flawless for, and flawless he'll be. As far as Nakatani goes, clearly Hernandez has solid whiskers, but Inoue won't be giving him nearly as many chances to test his. So if his power has degraded slightly at 122 and it might have, then there's a possibility that Inoue wears him down and lets loose late like Hernandez did and if he does, Inoue 100% gets the stoppage. Hernandez had him reeling at times. Also I've seen others hurt Nakatani in the past, like Angel Acosta, Chihuas Rodriguez and Argi Cortes. So it's not like he's invulnerable. So I think the match will begin like Akhmadaliev and end like Cardenas.
You're right. I just looked, and other than the Benn-Prograis video, I have been rather heavyweight-centric lately, more so than I realized. Have you changed your mind since this post? I'm not entirely sure what to expect on Saturday, but I'm sure looking forward to it. Enjoy!
I would not be at all surprised if it went more like you depicted here than what I suggested. Can't wait to find out!
Great posts guys. One thing I will say is that Inoue has one stylistic fallibility, which is that he likes to pull back, as a defensive measure, with his right hand down. He could get away with it due to his great reflexes and physicality, but as the weight gets higher it becomes riskier simply due to the increased size and length of the fighters. To add, Nakatani throws the exact same shot that has troubled and knocked down Inoue in his career. Personally, I can't see Inoue ironing this out of his style no matter how great his preparations for this are, which makes this really interesting in my view. My prediction is that Inoue has trouble early on but comes back to stop Nakatani in the mid or possibly later rounds. Really looking forward to this!
Awesome video as usual @Rumsfeld . I think the first 6 rounds will be the most dangerous for Naoya Inoue and it all comes down to how well he takes Nakatani's power, if he's able to avoid some of the shots that have put him on the canvas twice, and how quickly he can adjust to Nakatani's style. Nakatani is by far the most powerful puncher that Inoue will have faced since Donaire and the first time that happened he had a broken orbital and was forced to bite down hard so I'm curious if we'll see something similar to that as well. Nakatani's tough outing with Hernandez wont reflect on what will transpire against Inoue since they're both different styles. Inoue is more patient and will be more measured in his approach. Nakatani will need to make use of his reach to keep Inoue at bay without having to fight on the inside at all cost if he doesn't want to get caught by Inoue's power. Inoue's ring IQ, ability to recover and adapt mid fight is one of his best attributes and I think that will start turning the fight into his favor if the fight goes on. I think Inoue needs to be fully prepared to what Nakatani is about to bring and do what he can to fight a disciplined fight. For Nakatani his best chance is to start fast, jump at him and fire quick combinations without giving Inoue a chance to be think. This is the kind of super fight that boxing fans have been waiting for. It's a fight that I favor Inoue but Nakatani is indeed a live underdog in this fight. I'm really stoked to see how this plays out!
Nakatani could very well benefit from fighting like Marquez did against Pacquiao. Constant little steps back to make the more explosive fighter overcommit. Inoue knows he has to navigate that long-mid range very carefully, which I expect he'll do via lateral movement and varying his jab. He isn't a natural infighter, so he can't find that refuge Hernandez did against Junto. No, he's going to have to rely on his speed. In and out without catching hell. Nakatani, I suspect, is too game - and possesses a meaty right hook to go with that left hook/upper - that he's probably gonna catch Naoya at some point. How clean? We'll see. The odds, however, reflect what we know. Naoya Inoue is a complete fighter. Barring some unforeseen stylistic nightmare, a nuclear counter, or some awful cut, he's probably going to weather/negate whatever Junto brings, then find those ribs. Inoue's last two opponents wanted to survive. Junto will want to win. He'll want to put on a show. He'll tire. Inoue TKO 8-10.
This may be a tougher fight than many think. The two times I can recall Inoue getting dropped were by left hands he didn't see. Nery and Cardenas. So, since Nakatani is a lefty with real power, I would not be at all surprised if he catches Inoue. The question is, will Inoue be able to bounce back if he is caught.
