Is nobody here giving helenius a chance against wilder?

Very dangerous fight for him. Helenius is coming off the best form he's had since at least 2011. He will definitely be motivated and they may have bitten off more than they can chew like with Fury I. It's a big mistake if they're expecting the guy who lost to Washington and Duhaupas to show up on the night - This is a much better Helenius. Nobody will be surprised if he wins this in early devastating fashion, but an upset especially on the back of those two thrashings to Fury should not be ruled out. Barring the Fury and Ortiz fights this is easily the best matchup Wilder has had in his career on paper.

 

I'd give Helenius a small chance of pulling off the upset.

After a couple of difficult stops and nearing age 37, it's at least possible that Deontay Wilder is getting shot or thereabouts. He has mileage on his clock now and he's highly-flawed technically.

 

Wilder is coming off brutal back-to-back stoppage losses which ended a nearly 12-year unbeaten streak. While Helenius is coming off two of the most impressive wins of his career back-to-back, and has spent countless rounds mimicking Tyson Fury in sparring sessions with Wilder.

If Helenius was ever going to beat Wilder, this is the moment.

 

I give him a chance.
Helenius hits harder than Fury. He's always seemed pretty skilled, in decent shape and is obviously big.
But I'm worried he is a bit slow to avoid Wilder's assaults and also land his own.
Hopefully he times Wilder and KO's him though.

 

I completely understand your opinion and agree with many elements
of it, especially his technical flaws but to be as old as Wilder is he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear at his age especially as rounds go.
Honestly my opinion of Helenius is pretty low. I like your objectivity, it's very difficult
as a boxing fan, I know.

 

He doesn't have much of a chance unless he is in top shape and sopt on.

 

He has an outside punchers chance so the odds are stacked against him. They've sparred extensively and Wilder being so risk adverse wouldn't pick Helenius unless he's confident of victory. Helenius beating Wilder for me would be like Ruiz beating Joshua a total shock.

 

He’ll have a chance however I’m fully expecting Wilder to catch a slow moving Helenius and stop him by the mid way point.

A non elusive ageing fighter will at some point be a sitting duck.

The bigger question mark is how much Wilder has left and how he rebounds.

 

Wilder:

1. Winless since November 2019

2. Will have only completed 10 rounds in the previous 32 months and have been inactive for 12 months

3. Accrued a lot of injuries throughout his career, possibly including a ruptured left eardrum in one or both of his last two fights

4. Will be just about to turn 37

5. Made a massive amount of money in his last two fights, has his investments and enjoys activities outside the ring (music, cologne, scuba diving)

6. Brutal, ego destroying back to back KO defeats to Fury after an unbeaten run spanning 12 years, 43 fights and 10 consecutive heavyweight title defences over 5 years

7. Has been pressured to come back and will have concerns that returning will further damage his health and tarnish his reputation/legacy, especially if he comes back a significantly diminished fighter but if Wilder returns and does well he’ll be indirectly boosting Fury’s legacy by extension, so in a way he can’t win

8. Feels he has accomplished his primary goal, which was to become a world champion and support his disabled daughter “beyond belief”

9. Articulated feelings of diminished motivation, conspiracies against him (if he truly believes this, won’t he probably be set up to lose again?) and has contemplated retirement

10. Knows that a loss to Helenius would be hugely embarrassing and would end his career and that he’s not just expected to win but to win in one-sided, devastating fashion


Helenius:

1. Big

2. Big puncher

3. Highly experienced as an amateur and pro

4. Little weight of expectation and close to the end of his career, nothing to lose

5. Good reasons to be motivated

6. Has seen Fury execute an effective pressure gameplan twice, believes Wilder is shopworn

7. Three KO wins over former belt holders (Brewster, Peter, Liakhovich)

8. Three KO wins on the road as a wide underdog (Teper, Kownacki x2)

9. In the best form of his career


Helenius is a 5/1 underdog so the bookmakers are giving him a 16.7% chance. That's a far better chance than Douglas was given against Tyson, Rahman against Lewis, Sanders against Wlad and Ruiz against AJ.

 

It's so they can give Wilder zero credit. Claiming this is a risk-averse choice of opponent for Wilder's first fight back coming off brutal back to back KO defeats is bending the facts to fit the theory.

 

"Dive" Squad. No chance Helenoius "wins".

 

Boxing journalist Stephen Edwards reckons it's intended to be "sink or swim" matchmaking:

"Wilder is now a PPV fighter. He commands a certain amount of money. He has to fight someone credible. Helenius is on his career best run with his wins over Adam Kowanacki and he looks the part. Maybe those that made this match are saying to themselves, if Wilder can’t beat Helenius at this point, commanding the kind of money he commands, then what are we doing. I don’t know what they’re saying. But I know how boxing works."

 

No