Is Wlad the best all-time-heavyweight? NO OPINION, just PURE RECORD ANALYSIS

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by knn, Jun 21, 2008.


  1. kg0208

    kg0208 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    16,031
    6
    Aug 8, 2005
    The flaw was pointed out to you, only then did you recognize it. I said "just as I thought" because you said that it would hurt Ali's record when in reality it would not, just as I thought.

    I don't believe you are headed in the right direction at all. Statistical analysis doesn't tell the whole story in a sport where everyone doesn't face everyone. It has glaring holes. You are trying to cover those holes with your opinion and settling on rules for this comparison based on those opinions. It's your list, your comparisons, but as already proven, few will agree.

    Stats need context, as has been proven throughout every sport ever in history. You cannot change that.
     
  2. Marciano Frazier

    Marciano Frazier Well-Known Member Full Member

    2,935
    56
    Jul 20, 2004
    In that case, you're being even more unfair, since most of Wlad's opponents' careers are not over yet, further tainting and unbalancing your statistics. Moreover, having only eight fights against big good heavyweights (by your standards, which are wrong and unfair in the first place) does not make one "better" or "worse"; it's simply a quantity of contests. Louis was UTTERLY DOMINANT in those contests, in fact moreso than Wlad has been in his own contests against the same category of opponent (as Wlad has lost twice to them), and so your numbers demonstrate absolutely nothing of the sort that you're attributing to them; if anything, they are suggestive in the opposite direction (in spite of being flagrantly biased AGAINST Louis).

    Yet another subjective and arbitrary standard that belies your claim that there is no opinion involved in your assessment.

    If the question is who he could beat, why should he have to weigh a certain amount before you can count his results? You yourself said that fans were suggesting Dempsey could literally beat top modern heavyweights, and that your statistics in some way disproved that idea; if you don't even count his fights against opponents fitting your standard for a modern heavyweight, but discount him offhand for not weighing enough himself, then you obviously haven't proven anything- you've only assumed it.

    1. You just, once again, changed standards in such a way as to make Dempsey look worse. Since we were discussing how Dempsey could do AGAINST YOUR DEFINITION OF "HEAVYWEIGHTS," I was counting Dempsey's fights against opponents who FIT THAT DEFINITION. Against opponents who match your standard for "non-bum heavyweight" (weigh more than 200 pounds and have 3-1 or better win-loss averages) Dempsey is 5-0 with 4 knockouts. This is a BETTER record than Wlad's.
    In other words, his record against guys YOU see as "non-bum heavyweights," who are apparently inherently better in your eyes, is MUCH BETTER than his record against SUB-200 pound opponents!

    Again, your statistics, even in themselves, have in no way indicated that Marciano, Dempsey and especially Louis couldn't beat modern heavyweights. Marciano is undefeated with 100% knockouts against "non-bum heavyweights" by your standard. Dempsey is undefeated with 80% knockouts against the same. Louis is undefeated with 75% knockouts (actually should be a lot more, except that your "total-career" thing is weighing him down unfairly). Wlad actually has two losses in this same category, and thus, taken with "no opinion" and only "pure statistics," if anything one would have to say Wlad is worse than them, or at best that the results are inconclusive. Your kindergarden example is humorous, but has no baring on reality. There is absolutely no clear, factual evidence that Louis or Dempsey or Marciano could not compete with Klitschko were they fighting under the same rules and circumstances. If you choose to believe that to be the case, then there is no way to disprove your opinion either, but it is only an opinion, and one which is perfectly factually disputable. There has always been an unlimited (in an upward direction) division at the top of boxing, and there have been a few dozen champions in that division. When one lines up accomplishments which are of a universal nature (domination of one's era, consistency, longevity, etc.), one can reasonably rank those champions against one another in terms of career achievement, and can also make estimates of who would be better in a direct head-to-head sense were they fighting at the same time and under the same rules and circumstances; what one cannot do is cut and bend puzzle pieces until it fits together in such a way as to make it look like those fighters actually did fight at the same time and under the same rules and circumstances, because they just plain didn't, and you're making history into a joke by spinning it in such a way. Moreover, even when you do (which you shouldn't and can't do in any objective way), you don't get any conclusive results demonstrating that a guy like Wlad is clearly better than predecessors like Louis.
     
  3. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    That's why you have to delete the bums out of the record. Otherwise a hard puncher could line up 100 bums, KO them and become "the hardest KOing man on the planet".

    Archie Moore by my calculations :
    70 non-bum fights (that's a lot, but mind you I included all of his non-heavyweight fights, so don't compare this with Lennox or Klitschko)

    non-bum:bum ratio 31% -> that's bad -> Archie was fighting most of his life bums.

    Of the 70 fights Archie won 51 (19 by non-KO) +6 losses against bums

    win/bout ratio is approx 65% (51 wins per 76 counted bouts) -> BAD to MEDIOCRE

    His KO ratio is approx. 40% = FEATHERFIST. I know I can already hear people shouting "I stopped reading when he said that Archie Moore is a featherfist" BUT OPEN YOUR EYES AND READ HIS GODDAM RECORD: He is a KOer of BUMs. Like Sam Langford. Archie Moore FAILS TO KO AS SOON AS THE OPPOSITION GETS SLIGHLTY BETTER. Now I am a bit unfair here, since he is not a heavy and for a non-heavy the KO might be good.

    Please also note that since some of you think that Muhammad Ali is partly so great because he beat Archie Moore then let me point out some maybe unknown facts:
    • Archie Moore was 45 when Ali beat him
    • Archie Moore started with 140+ lbs
    • Archie Moore has a mediocre record (see above), or rather a pumped up (bummed up) record
    So far, all of your sacred all-time greats crumble when analyzed under light.
     
  4. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    Less fair or more fair. The future will tell wether Wlad increases or decreases his record. AND whether Wlad's opponents increase or decrease their records. Since Wlad's career and his opponents' career isn't over ALL resulting calculations are of course preliminary. But, come on, THAT'S OBVIOUS. With every bout the rankings change.

    Yes, and someone else might have been utterly dominant in his 1 and only contest. That would be 100% and would be ridiculous.

    I am not biased against ANY BOXER. I am biased against OVERHYPING "oldtimers" and downtalking "nowadayers".

    Because more fights are more representative. A stat like 60-4 is of course more representative than 6-0. I mean come on, THAT's OBVIOUS. That's not a hideous plan to destroy Louis. I have nothing against Louis.

    Disprove is a hard word, theoretically any boxer can beat any other. Rather my stats don't support it.

    But weighing enough is the premise for beating nowadays heavies. If Marciano or Dempsey never weighed enough HOW CAN WE KNOW HOW THEY PERFORM WHEN HEAVIER?

    Exactly, I have assumed it. And who has data to support the counter-thesis (= that Dempsey or Marciano when wheighing 200+ could beat modern heavies), since they have NEVER DONE SO IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER? This is the same stuff as claiming "Cruiser XY could beat current heavies". "Oh yeah? He hasn't beaten any so far, so how come you claim he can?" You see, if YOU claim that Marciano could beat them, then YOU have to support this thesis with some data. My data supports that it's more UNLIKELY than likely.

    I re-checked my post and I admit that I have stated something unclearly there: A heavyweightfight is a fight where BOTH fighters are 200+. Sorry, it's my mistake.

    No, it's not. Otherwise 1-0 (1 win by KO) would be 100% and better than any other boxer. Come on, THAT'S OBVIOUS. It's less representative.
    Also if you think it through then a guy with a record of 1-0 is also not a bum because his win-loss ratio is INFINITE. I simply take numbers less than 10 as not representative enough. That's again not a hideous plan to downgrade old boxers but simple math. My first post was already long enough, I didn't want to explain every single special case that can come up. For example I have a little bit of different way to calculate KO ratios, and I also didn't share that since all the given calculations are not the final word anyway, but a first look.

    If Dempsey's ratio is 1:0 and Foreman's is 50:1 then Foreman's ratio is BETTER because it's more representative. I write the ratio as % because it's more readable, but COME ON, written as percentage it may turn INFINITE (for example 1/0) thus it's actually NOT the correct way to write it. The correct way to do it is simply to write 1/0 or 50/1. ADDITIONALLY % (per centum) IS WRONG since noone has made 100 non-bum fights, so mathematically you shouldn't call it "per hundred". I mean, simple math logic.

    Anyone can beat anyone in heavyweights. But there is some _likability_ or "indication by prior performance"

    Correct, there is no factual evidence.

    What is domination? Consistency? Longevity? Sounds like "heart", "durability", "footwork" and "ring dominance". This cannot be statistified and my theory is that if someone had really such a great footwork and dominance then it will come out as KOs, UDs and little losses.

    I set up simple rules and ran through the records of a handful of nowadays and oldtimers. The biggest problem of my calculation is that it's only 1 level deep (= quality of opposition isn't integrated in the final result). The second biggest is, that below-200 bouts get lost. The third biggest is that KO13+ doesn't count. (By the way the more levels deep you go the longer you have to wait for the final result, since all boxers and opponents must retire before a definite result).

    As I already pointed out this is the major flaw of all sports comparisons (not only boxing): Do we compare Wlad (with nowadays training) vs Louis (with the then-training) or Wlad vs a hypothetical Louis who would have been trained with modern methods. This flaw is inherent and not typical for my calculation.
     
  5. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    What the heck? I pointed that out already at post #49 of this thread and repeated it since. My calculation (since it's by hand) distinguishes only between bums and non-bums, but not between non-bums and beaters-of-bums (= non-obvious bums).

    But it WOULD hurt Ali. I don't understand what you mean. Assumed that it was 200+ then in my calculation (= the calculation in my first post) Ali would be credited with a win over a bum-beater. Had I calculated it 2 levels deep like Rumsfeld suggested then Ali would be hurt, because this WIN is DELETED then.

    I think more will agree to a calculated list than to the hundreds of speculated and opinionated lists. Especially if they are not from the USA where every expert is patting every other expert as long as they agree that Muhammad is a god above all others.
     
  6. kg0208

    kg0208 Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

    16,031
    6
    Aug 8, 2005
    And I pointed it out in post #23. Thus why I said it was pointed out to you (others pointed it out as well before you mentioned it)

    It wouldn't hurt Ali by your present calculation, but by your proposed and unfinished (unstarted?) calculations 2 levels deep. And why draw the line at 2 levels? Another arbitrary line. Again, subjective not objective.

    Calculated lists exist already to rate modern P4P lists and even division lists. Nearly no one agrees with them. I am not going to get into the BS regional arguments. It's BS and always has been on both sides with neither willing to concede obvious points.
     
  7. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    I answered that already in several posts.
     
  8. konaman

    konaman Boxing Addict Full Member

    7,377
    1
    May 28, 2008
    Obviously everything is just relative and based on a opinion, like who is a bum etc.

    But i would like to see your theory in relation to elite fighters beat, and top p4p fighters beat. As this would completely change your findings.
     
  9. Antsu

    Antsu Boxing Junkie Full Member

    11,144
    367
    Mar 5, 2006
    But the point of his research is to prove why Wladimir is better than old-timers, so she will obviosly change rules only to Wladimirs favor.
     
  10. achillesthegreat

    achillesthegreat FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE Full Member

    37,070
    29
    Jul 21, 2004
    Single handidly one of the worst, most ludicrous post in history.
     
  11. Jd!

    Jd! showthread.php?t=74250 Full Member

    385
    0
    Aug 24, 2007
    is this done in Excel? or some form of spreadsheet? i'd like to see it if so
     
  12. mrbassie

    mrbassie Boxing Addict Full Member

    6,206
    16
    Oct 18, 2004
    Plenty of people have. What are you talking about? Here's the obvious example: Ali beat Liston, Frazier and Foreman, proved to be overall the best in possibly the deepest heavyweight division ever.
    Wlad beat Chris Byrd twice.

    The heavyweight division is weak now, very weak, it's full of overweight unskilled plodders with no stamina. Can you imagine a single current heavy going 15 rounds at a decent pace? I can't, not in the shape they come in at presently.

    When was the division strong? Well, in the 90's it was stronger than now, In the 70's it was a great deat stronger than now, the 60's, even the 80's which is considered a weak era was better than now.
    I live in England, a download a few big fights with American commentary but by and large they're not heavyweights, so the majority I see have British commentary. In any case I'm not the sort of person who is influenced by commentary or by journalists. I form my own opinions from what I see myself and my opinion is that Wlad is a good heavyweight, he has his flaws but he has his assets too, he's the best around at the moment but the rest are pretty awful.
     
  13. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    There are 6 billion opinions on earth regarding any subject.

    OK, let's see HOW (as you claim) OBVIOUS your example is:

    You are doing some magical mind trick here:
    Joe Frazier is a superb boxer because he beat Ali who is a superb boxer because he beat Foreman who is a superb boxer because he beat Frazier.

    My, god did you know that Frazier WAS BLIND ON ONE EYE? A half-blind small (5'11.5'') boxer is given as an example of the OBVIOUS dominance of ALI?

    Brewster's eye operation is mentioned in forums (after which actually the retina can sit more firm than naturally) WHILE COMPLETELY IGNORING that Ali HAD THE HARDEST FIGHT OF HIS LIFE against a small half-blind opponent.

    Joe Frazier has only 12 non-bum 200+ fights (against the same 7 guys): 8 wins (4 by non-KO), 4 losses (3 by KO). The number of fights is too low to make a somewhat valid assessment whether Frazier was actually good. He was put on his seat in such a dominant fashion by Foreman, that I have to assume that Frazier was mediocre at best: I mean, look at his record: 4 KO wins (featherfist) + 4 losses. Yawn.

    Now to Foreman and Sonny Liston: YES, THEY WERE GOOD.

    Foreman was Ali's greatest win. But: What do we have to think about Ali's OWN trainer Drew Brown (assistent trainer more exact) bragging that Foreman's cook was bribed to put poison into the food of Foreman before the Rumble? Why would anyone say something like that?

    Now to Sonny Liston:
    14 non-bum (heavyweight and cruiserweight) (with the same 10 boxers):
    11 WINS (3 by non-KO), lost 3 +1 loss by 1 bum (Marty Marshall)
    6 non-bum 200+ fights:, 4 wins (all by KO), 2 losses
    Again, it's too early (with only 4 KO wins) to asses that Liston was good or not.

    In their first fight Liston quit on his stool after 6 rounds and (because that fight ended so controversial) a second fight was ordered. Ali threw his "phantom punch" (round 1) and Liston later admitted in an interview that he used this first opportunity to go down because of fear of retaliation from Ali's Islamic sect (Nation of Islam). So until this very day the results of Liston vs Ali ARE questioned. HOWEVER, since I have the strict rule of only considering official scores I CREDIT ALI WITH 2 KOs against a supposedly good opponent.

    So, yes, his win against (drugged or not-drugged) Foreman and Liston (quitter and/or diver) are probably his greatest achievements.

    If this is why you think Ali is #1 and the division was great then you are free to feel so. It doesn't impress me however.

    And it definitely doesn't make any of modern heavyweights look weaker.

    But you are comparing heavyweight fighters nowadays with a non-existing heavyweight division at Ali's times. At Ali's times a lot of so called heavyweights were below 200 (so you are comparing 200+ with 200-) or were simply pumped up cruiserweights. So you are comparing pears with apples, just because pears have been called "apples" once.

    I can imagine current heavies going 15 rounds. Are you claiming that in ALL the heavyweight fights you saw recently the heavies are sitting completely devastated on their stools unable to breathe after 12 rounds? It's not true.

    Moreover I have been critisized for converting TKO13+ to UD12. But in your example you do exactly the same: If you convert the
    This content is protected
    of a 12-rounder (which is faster than a 15-rounder, if we can believe Marciano Frazier) then of course fighters who fight 12 rounds are as finished as then-fighters fighting 15 rounds: BECAUSE THEY ADJUSTED THEIR PACE. Moreover THEY ARE FIGHTING HEAVIER OPPONENTS. (As I mentioned Klitschkos average opponent is 30 lbs heavier than Ali's average opponent. The Frazier of "Frazier vs Ali I" would be Klitschko's LIGHTEST (205 lbs) opponent. Ali lost against that Frazier).

    Opinion.

    And not by boxing records?

    I didn't make a comparison to the other current heavies. I made a comparison to Ali, Lennox etc and so far Wlad is pretty good, not only compared to the current bunch, but to the pasttimers, too.
     
  14. brownshell

    brownshell Active Member Full Member

    759
    4
    Dec 11, 2006
    Take a look at Vlad's record on Boxrec.com. The only "non-bum" I see is Chris Byrd. Who is a small HW. Vlad sucks and would be a bum if he fought in any other HW era excet now and When Marciano was a HW.

    PLAESE!!!!! Stop licking Vlad's nuts. PLEASE!
     
  15. knn

    knn amanda Full Member

    1,088
    0
    Jun 21, 2008
    Obviously you didn't read my first post of what makes a boxer fall below the usable margin (b-u-m). I realize that names like Jimmy Young and Archie Moore ARE BIG NAMES, but I also see that it's "bigness by hype" and not "by achievements".

    This is exactly what I mean: YOU start to mention Wlad's record again.
    Why the heck does anyone think here that I even LIKE Klitschko? It just so happens that after my calculations he is better than any of the so called ATGs. If you have ideas for an objective calculation that could make Wlad look worse and Ali better THEN YOU ARE FREE TO SHARE WITH ME.