Its statisically highly unlikely that Ward won on 3 scorecards without bias...

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016.


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  1. TinFoilHat

    TinFoilHat Boxing Addict Full Member

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    I personally watched the fight and the most GENEROUS score I could give Ward was 114-113... That's giving all rounds to Ward that were CLOSE. There is about 4 close rounds I felt could have gone to Kovalev. If you are bias towards Kovalev you could reasonably score the fight 117-110. However, the real score is probably somewhere in between.

    The chance of all 3 judges giving all 4 50/50 rounds to Kovalev is roughly 1 in 4096. Each close round is about a 50% chance of going to ward if the judges aren't biased so .5 ^12, gives you the percent chance. Now I think the chances of judges being biased is much higher than that. So we all know what happened. I also don't think Ward is man enough to fight Kovalev again. Actually, that wasn't even a fight, that was Andre Ward's ref protecting him while he tried to wrestle a superior fighter... And superior MAN.
     
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    #1
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  2. mirkofilipovic

    mirkofilipovic ESB Management Full Member

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    80 percent of the general forum lacks mathematical acumen to know what the Fock you just said.
     
    mirkofilipovic, Nov 20, 2016
    mirkofilipovic, Nov 20, 2016
    #2
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  3. Grinder

    Grinder Dude, don't call me Dude Full Member

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    He said it's about a 0.00024 chance that it wasn't an organized robbery.
    OR

    It is statistically significant / highly probable that the judges colluded to give Ward the fight.
     
    Grinder, Nov 20, 2016
    Grinder, Nov 20, 2016
    #3
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  4. mirkofilipovic

    mirkofilipovic ESB Management Full Member

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    I understood what he said, I was talking about others. Lol
     
    mirkofilipovic, Nov 20, 2016
    mirkofilipovic, Nov 20, 2016
    #4
  5. TinFoilHat

    TinFoilHat Boxing Addict Full Member

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    I'm not necessarily saying collusion. It is probably more likely that the judges are American, and felt they might be treated to judging more fights in the future by giving Ward the decision. After seeing how unpopular the decision was, maybe the next fight they will judge in an unbiased manner. I honestly think the crowd is going to be pro kovalev anywhere but in Oakland (jokeland).
     
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    #5
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  6. technocrato

    technocrato Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Those close rounds could have gone either way. And they went to Ward. It was no robbery, just a hometown advantage.

    (Edit: I agree with tinfoilhat basically).
     
    technocrato, Nov 20, 2016
    technocrato, Nov 20, 2016
    #6
  7. FuMaster

    FuMaster Well-Known Member Full Member

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    deleted no need to show off math prowess
     
    FuMaster, Nov 20, 2016
    FuMaster, Nov 20, 2016
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  8. Rumsfeld

    Rumsfeld Moderator Staff Member

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    I see a lot of people saying this - that the only way you can arrive at 114-113 for Ward is if you give all the close rounds to Ward, but I'm baffled every single time I read that. You're not alone, as a lot of people are saying this. But I thought there were 5 especially close rounds, and if you gave all 5 of those rounds to Ward, I come up with 117-110 for Ward. But I didn't give all 5 of those close rounds to Ward. I gave Ward TWO of those close rounds.

    My main point is I think a lot of people are giving Kovalev a "lock" on certain rounds, which were in fact close. Just my worthless 2 cents.

    This was not an especially easy fight to score, unlike say, Mayweather vs Pacquiao where scoring the rounds was extremely easy for the most part.
     
    Rumsfeld, Nov 20, 2016
    Rumsfeld, Nov 20, 2016
    #8
  9. technocrato

    technocrato Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Most rounds were really close, more than five in my opinion.
     
    technocrato, Nov 20, 2016
    technocrato, Nov 20, 2016
    #9
  10. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    I was going to make a similar point but I didn't feel like making an entire thread laying it out, but you're spot on.

    All you have to do is look at Gannicus' thread from earlier today.

    Of 60 Boxing Media judges.

    44 Scores for KOVALEV = 73%
    15 Scores for WARD = 25%
    1 Score for a DRAW + 2%

    The likelihood of all 3 judges scoring the match for Ward being in the 25 percentile is stretching reality.
     
    CST80, Nov 20, 2016
    CST80, Nov 20, 2016
    #10
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  11. purephase

    purephase Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Seems like you've presented a most rigorous statistical analysis.
     
    purephase, Nov 20, 2016
    purephase, Nov 20, 2016
    #11
  12. FuMaster

    FuMaster Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Your math is wrong. First of all, it's not what you "felt" were the close rounds that are considered so right there your odds calculations are emotional not rational. They all didn't agree on the close rounds.

    And your mathematical approach is too simplistic to get the actual probability.
     
    FuMaster, Nov 20, 2016
    FuMaster, Nov 20, 2016
    #12
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  13. TinFoilHat

    TinFoilHat Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Look Rummy. I scored everything as generous for Ward as possible because I like to know if there is a way to do it. When I was done my Generous score for ward, looked EXACTLY the same as what you posted in your video. Round for round, all scored the same (I could post a screen shot of my boxing scoring app scorecard I filled in as I watched). I think at least one of those close rounds should have gone to Ward on at least 1 judges score card. I think if you had to rate how each fighter did over the course of the entire fight Kovalev is definitely the winner 100%, no way around that. I understand that's not how boxing works though. But I was thinking, wow if everyone scored the fight for Andre Ward this way, that would be biased judges or corruption. I was in shock when Kovalev didn't win on one card and all judges had it the same.
     
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    #13
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  14. TinFoilHat

    TinFoilHat Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Interesting to know the press scores. I strongly felt Kovalev probably won, glad to see most of the press felt the same. I think Ring Magazine should rate him as #1 P4P. Ward was the less skilled fighter who "found a way to win" as they say.
     
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    TinFoilHat, Nov 20, 2016
    #14
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  15. purephase

    purephase Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    This assumes both that media members are competent scorers and should be seen as belonging to the same population as boxing judges themselves. Likewise, I'd guess a significant portion if not a majority of those listed were not actually at the venue, which again makes them different populations.
     
    purephase, Nov 20, 2016
    purephase, Nov 20, 2016
    #15
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