Jack Johnson Vs Jess Willard, age or inactivity?

Age, inactivity, lack of conditioning, overconfidence and poor dealmaking , accepting a super long distance fight for the purse .. if it were a 20 round fight Johnson keeps his title ...

 

Reduction of duration can be argued to potentially yield a compression of the same action/reactions, overall dynamic and outcome.

In this case I don’t think it applies. The 45 rounds set were very much designed to be in Willard’s favour - to advantage his style of fighting. Even Willard said before the fight he was prepared to soak as much punishment as was necessary in order to prevail - victory by way of attrition more or less.

I don’t believe Willard would’ve been capable of adjusting himself to a 20 rd duration. Jack was the perfect mid distance runner, Jess the perfect Marathon Man.

At 37 out of shape and inactive, even in losing, Johnson’s performance in 1915 can still be viewed as somewhat remarkable IMO. As compared to earlier available footage, we actually get to see on film a LOT more of what Lil Arthur was capable of - even though he was old and poorly conditioned.

If a 30 year old Johnson was in a similar state of poor conditioning and inactive, he would likely do that much better for longer - BUT, if he still couldn’t tip Big Jess over, even if Jess was well battered, Willard might still be the last man standing before the expiration of 45 rounds.

 

Age and inactivity were certainly factors, but the biggest factor was making Walter Monahan the head trainer for Willard, since without Monahan Johnson likely would’ve worn Willard down and retained his title.

Monahan had a long history with Johnson such as being a long time sparring partner and was even trained and managed by Johnson when he turned pro, so he knew all of the tricks Johnson was going to use and prepared Willard accordingly. But, unfortunately after Willard won the title he fired Monahan because he thought Monahan was too expensive.

 

This. Willard would always have been a stylistic challenge for JJ because of his size and strength which made it hard for JJ to wear him out by mauling as he did others.

 

I'm not sure this is correct.
Jess relied on his jab and when close his right uppercut,but his work rate was lower than Johnson's who was no Aaron Pryor himself. After 20rds Johnson had a clear lead against Willard ,years of dissipation and lack of conditioning had robbed him of some of his stamina and Jess's durability. and him being in great shape did the rest.If Johnson could have dictated the terms of the fight he probably would have opted for 20 or even 15 rds and there very well may have been a different result.
Prime Johnson would have handled Jess fairly comfortably imo.After the fight Johnson told Curley the promoter,"I never thought there was a man who could survive if I really went after him."Willard was prepared to take punishment to wear down the old champ and the plan succeeded.

 

Johnson dominated the first twenty rounds .. Willard outlasted him based on a terrific chin and outstanding condition .. I don't think a shorter distance and a more aggressive strategy , one Willard pretty much never displayed in his career would have mattered .. this was about Johnson gassing out .. much credit to Willard for durability and condition for sure ..

 

lol he lost nearly every round to a 37 year old Johnson with a spare tire around his midsection and you think he stood a Chance with a 30 year old Johnson?

 

Your asking about a boxing match. Johnson in his prime easily outpoints or knocks out Willard depending on Johnson’s mood

 

Knocking out Big Jess may well have been beyond even a prime Johnson.

 

Johnson was ahead in his day because many (not all) of his opponents were smaller than he was, and he could grab them and literally thrown them around like Ketchel and Burns and probably Langford as well. He couldn't do that to Willard.

I don't think a younger Johnson does any better, unless he's smart about it and makes the fight a 20 rounder, in which case he always beats Willard.