IMO Chad Dawson wins, Toney has never faced a southpaw with the speed and skills of someone like Chad Dawson.
Toney would always have problems with Dawson. Dawson's more mobile and quick, and can use the ring and box, while even a younger Toney preferred his opponents to come at him so he could counter efficiently and effectively. Also, 175 wasn't exactly Toney's best weight either.
The Littles fight was at 168, Toney's best weight. Toney was lazy and inconsistent 175, even missing weight for a minor belt, in which he lost to Thadazi. Dawson is miles faster than Jirov and would use the ring more than Jirov, who fought the way Toney likes. Most of the "cruiserweight" fights that Toney had weren't even within the weight limit at the time anyway. They were usually over, or in the case with the dreadful 3rd match with McCallum, well under. Beating one world class cruiserweight in a great, tough, competitive bout hardly qualifies as "kicking ass" in the division. There's nothing other than misinformed nostalgia that would conclude one to believe that Toney "kills" Dawson at 175. What is there? Toney's 2 close fights with Griffin? His loss to Thadazi? Beating the likes of Delgado, a rematch with Hembrick? Ernest Mateen, whose ability to follow the rules were somewhere below Andrew Golota and Terry Norris?
Toney never had an easy time with quick-handed boxers. He ate up the slower pressuring brawlers who left too many openings up close (Barkley, Williams), or could put up on a technical masterpiece against other skilled boxers (McCallum 1), but the speedy, mobile boxers have given him more problems. Michael Nunn: Toney came from behind to stop this speedy southpaw. Reggie Johnson: not the speediest, but fairly fast, and like Dawson, a southpaw. This fight was competitive and pretty close. Roy Jones: dominated Toney Dawson, I suspect, would not be stupid to try to come forward and play Toney's game and fight up close. He'd probably use the ring and made it ugly and dull. If it's 175, lazy Toney probably drops a decision. If it's 168, Dawson has less of a chance, but still would give Toney problems. Although Toney was better at 168 than others, it was also his opposition and the styles they had which made the difference in his performances look greater, relative to other divisions.
Thread Stealer's right. Toney's career was pretty much lost at 175. He has success at these higher weights against aggressive guys who came straight at him, but someone who has the speed, jab, and mobility of Dawson would most likely beat him at LHW.
Jirov is about the same level as Adamek, at best. Look how Dawson did against Adamek and how Toney did against Jirov. Dawson would win 3 out of 4 fights with Toney.
I think it was his best weight, he just ran into another slickster in Montell griffin. Against Thadzi, he was too lazy in training, and failed to make weight by 3 or 4 pounds.
If Dawson fought 12 smart rounds, I like him to win on points. The problem is, I think Chad likes to brawl a little too much and so he takes more punishment than he has to- he'll avoid punishment for a good stretch, then get hit with routine shots that can buzz him. I noticed it in both the Johnson and Adamek fights; he'd be outboxing both of them, and then all of a sudden he'd be in trouble off of a shot he can usually avoid- if this happened against Toney, I think James would finish the job. So, Toney could stop Dawson late, but I think Dawson would be leading at the time. If Chad could survive the distance, he'd win.
In his prime, Toney without question. He's beaten southpaws before and Dawson barely beat Glen Johnson, a good fighter no question. But Johnson's not in Toney's league.
I could actually see James coming back and stopping Dawson. Whose chin Im not really sold on yet. But anyone who doesnt think that this would be a hard opponant for Toney are kidding themselves...This is exactly the kind of opponant Toney consistently showed issues with throughout his career and as has been mentioned it is at a weight where James never really impressed. Could be argued either way...but IMO you would be taken a bit of a leap of faith to overlook Dawson's slightly unproven whiskers.