I'll go with the much more proven Light Heavyweight Marvin Johnson to outwork James Toney and win a decision. Light Heavyweight was Toney's worst weightclass he lost to Griffin x2 Thadzi, and did nothing remarkable at the weight.
This is a very bad match up for Toney who will be looking to take Johnson out with a counter because he is not going to out work Johnson.
It's certainly a fascinating matchup! I think Toney is great enough to win, wouldn't surprise me. But his stretches of inactivity would cost him and he would quickly find himself fighting an uphill battle, and Johnson had a good enough beard I don't think he'd be worried about James's power.