Just talking about this fight makes me uncomfortable. So difficult to predict for me. Both are fully capable of knocking the other out, so I will get pretending otherwise out of the way. Overeem has more tools can JSD. This isn't a knock on JDS, he just does his thing in a less varied way. I favor Overeem at a distance, or in the clinch without question. That boxing range is where he is at a disadvantage, not by huge amounts or anything but it is there. JDS can keep it more safe than Overeem. That is the thing boxing seems to give in MMA. You can avoid the huge punches longer, and you give your chance to find that big shot of your own. JDS can find that opening, I don't doubt it for a moment. Down to the ground games. I really have no idea. Overeem has a proven ground game. It isn't a Big Nog game, but he did submit Belfort back in the day which proves he can latch on to the best. JDS has proven nothing on the ground. People have said he is amazing at it in training, but that hardly qualifies at this point. Overeem gets that one by default until proven otherwise for me.
Now, this I can see from a certain perspective, not necessarily from a stylistic standpoint because my knowledge of the theoretical capabilities of Muy Thai are blinded by the reality of the situation. JDS is the best MMA heavyweight fighter currently at controlling range. The only way Overeem will beat JDS is by taking him down to the ground, but I don't know anything about that. So, Muy Thai in this situation is out the window. Santos will walk Overeem in circles, set him up, and knock him down. Unless of course Overeem takes him to the ground, which I don't know anything about. I'll be honest about MMA. Do I like the wrestling aspect of it, no, but I realize it can be deadly, but if you put a man in that position, and you can kill him or maim him, why can't he retaliate by stickin you in the side with a knife 3 or 4 times or gouge the eyes or any other number of things that are equally bad? With the standup game, you can walk away after you defend yourself. You don't have to finish someone off. The ground game is too unpredictable. I was once told, if you are bold enough to do the crime, you're bold enough to do the time.
If Reem can clinch with him, I believe he can take him down, if he tries to. Reem has good takedowns from the clinch. And if he were to do that, and somehow get him flat on his back, I think he can do as he pleases with him. I don't think he will tho. And by the time he tries to clinch, it'll be too late, and he'll get KTFO brutally trying to with a massive uppercut.
In summary i think dos Santos is going to KO Overeem in a one sided fight Why i think this , Overeem for me despite his " striking ability " in a non MMA environment has an obvious boxing flaw , he is not a boxer , now don't get me wrong here , I'm not saying Overeem has no boxing ability , not at all , i just don't think he is a " natural " boxer , the way dos Santos clearly is Ive been hit with " Overeem is a K1 champion " , " he is an elite striker " , " he's a world champion K1 fighter " etc etc etc and i understand and appreciate this , but this IS NOT K1 , its MMA , and in MMA you have to strike differently for fear of a TD or worse a KO with the 4oz gloves This is where dos Santos comes into his own , he has all but mastered striking for MMA , he is never in range of his opponent and strikes from all angles with ferocious power , he is an extremely gifted , dangerous individual Breaking the fighters down technically , Overeem is as you say the more wait and strike kind of fighter (counter puncher) , he has excellent poise and timing , he has power in both hands and very strong technical leg kicks , he is not an effective combination striker , and very rarely throws over and above 2 strikes in any one attack , unless an opponent is hurt or overwhelmed , his head movement is virtually non existent and he gets tagged with basic 1 - 2 punches , a lot , he has a natural hesitancy to let his hands go and can only seem to land anything effective when an opponent is moving in , he is athletic but has a questionable gas tank when the pace of the fight is not dictated by him , further to that , he does fight one paced , something that will haunt him after the dos Santos fight , overall it should be said that there are few complete strikers like Overeem in the sport of MMA dos Santos , an athletically gifted HW boxer with superb TDD , he is an aggressive striker who has an effective shot for every angle at almost any range without ever seeming to be in harms way , a complete natural in that respect , he has evolved his striking game for MMA quicker than any striker currently in world MMA , he has KO power in both hands , for his size he is a freak athlete , explosive , fast and has stamina to match . He can strike with power on the back foot as well as moving in , he has excellent timing (again this element of his game seems to come naturally to him) , defensively his range control and key decision making at key times is second to none (he has that knack of throwing the right shot at just the right time from the correct angle) , his sprawl is well mastered and he now seems almost impossible to take down , he is a dangerous striker who is very difficult to take down who can end a fight in a split second I think Overeem will struggle with the pace dos Santos sets , he will be outworked and out manoeuvred by the more mobile dos Santos , Overeem will eat shots he just doesn't see coming , and plenty of them , for me dos Santos knocks him out Thats providing that they ever fight each other of course :hey
I guess we will have to see. I don't want to knock JDS's boxing, but I think it's a bit loopy ala Chuck Liddel, and very much open to counter. JDS tends to win prolonged exchanges, but as you say Overeem tends to only throw one or two punches at a time, so those prolonged exchanges wont be there vs Overeem. From long range if JDS tries to throw those looping bombs that tend to wrap right around opponents hands trying to defend, he's done it a bunch of times including against Cain. I just see that playing right into Overeem's strength of looking for the big punch and countering it. So from range it seems like Overeem has the advantage. Up close in the clinch, I think Overeem has that without saying. And like I said with an exchange, like a boxing exchange JDS needs someone willing to really trade with him, which Overeem doesn't like to do, we know he only likes to throw one or two strikes at a time then turtle/ shield up. I see this as a sort of Winky Wright vs. Mosely fight. JDS has a ton of power, he moves great, but his opponent has the sort of defense that is tailor made for that sort of attack. The key difference is, nobody has the sort of punch resistance that mirrors Winky's in the heavyweight division of MMA, so obviously not as clear cut a mismatch as Winky vs. Mosely due to the sort of power both guys have. It's just what I see. I also think Mark Hunt is a serious, serious threat to JDS if they get matched up. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he floors him in the first. His ability to find openings, and land short powerful shots is wayyyy wayyy under-rated. If JDS and Hunt stood toe to toe I think Hunt would be the last man standing. Also, people look at the Karatonov vs. Overeem fights and assume a lot. Kharatonov as he has looked recently would be another really interesting matchup vs JDS. I just don't see the super high level of technical striking prowess others see in JDS, he is very good, but there are a lot of technical flaws as well. I more see him as a Chuck Liddel like heavy. Really good at fighting ground fighters and good in his own right toe to toe with everyone, but with a lot of holes to exploit if you know how.
Interesting opinion of dos Santos's boxing ability , i think his variety is second to none in the heavyweight division (boxing) , and yes early on while Overeem is fresh and hasn't been tagged he is very dangerous , thats providing he lets his hands go , and if he does , he will be hit with something short and powerful in the exchange , its a really interesting match up in that respect Overeem should utilise leg kicks and lots of them Ill be sure to hit you up when dos Santos KO's him :good
Would've been great to see this fight. Well matched, no matter how one-sided some of you saw it, in either way.
I'll be happy to eat crow in this case. I'm not knocking JDS striking ability in MMA, I just see very clear openings in JDS when he initiates exchanges because he tends to open up with looping punches and from range which is considered VERY BAD technique in boxing. He does this sort of thing and he is able to sneak his hands past his opponents because of the small gloves. I think even if this sort of punch is blocked with the hands, they are still thudding and would buzz most guys which is enough for JDS. But this isn't boxing like striking ability. He has a lot of qualities we see in good boxers in his ability to use his feet to control distance, and really good timing. The technique he uses to throw his punches isn't quite boxing like, and the sort of decisions he makes in his punch selection isn't boxing like either. It's like JDS' fight design and style is for fighting grapplers from range which really is a lot like Liddel's style. Liddel was far better than average in striking, and he for sure held his own against other strikers. But his style was almost specialized in picking apart wrestlers and bjj fighters. Liddel would get knocked out by Page most times because Page has some boxing fundamentals that Liddel doesn't have. You match up a prime Liddel against someone like Bader, I think Liddel knocks him out. But at the same time Page would struggle against wrestlers like Bader no matter what stage of his career you match them up. This is what I think I have observed in JDS. Like I said, I'll be happy to be proven wrong. JDS has Julian Jackson like power which is incredibly fun to watch because he understands how to use his power and is confident. But next time you watch him, really analyze his punching technique. I understand you are going to have a bigger foot base in MMA and throw punches a little differently, but that doesn't mean punch selection should go out the window. In boxing, when would you ever throw a looping lead right cross/hook from range? It just isn't something that you see outside of guys like Roy Jones Jr. Roy Jones was more a lead left hook guy, but he was such an athletic freak (speed and quickness and power) that he could get away with it. JDS is quick and fast, but he's not the MMA version of Roy Jones.
That statement there is often referred to these days in MMA , as " striking for MMA " , i think you have misunderstood what I'm getting at mate , or maybe i should of been a little more clear , dos Santos's boxing ability for the sport of MMA is how i assess him , not in pure boxing terms , in pure boxing terms his technique would be considered sloppy , and he would be picked apart , but thats in pure boxing terms What makes dos Santos effective in MMA is as you quite rightly pointed out , the smaller gloves , the footwork , range appreciation / control , his athleticism , all that together makes him an extremely effective striker in an MMA environment , something i believe Overeem is not , ill rephrase that , not as effective as Jr As for the comparisons to Chuck Liddell , yes i see the similarities , but only when dos Santos is striking with a wider arc , something he can do against lesser strikers or grapplers yes i happen to agree with that too , but thats not all dos Santos has in his locker , he has a variety of shots and throws them from a variety of angles , he has tremendous power and timing , also , his jab is very effective (when he throws it) and technically very sound , yes he will have to tighten up when he fights Overeem but given the variation of technique he has shown in past fights i think its a given he'll do that anyway , i don't see him leading with a left hook or rear hand against Overeem do you ?? , not unless there's an opening , in which case dos Santos will let fly , but aside from that i see him being patient and employing lots of feints / movement to create his openings
We are almost on the same page then. I don't see Overeem falling for the feints. The way I see it going down is Overeem walking down JDS, and JDS trying to feint and then throwing a big punch which Overeem would be looking for. Now how Overeem handles that sort of punch would determine a lot. If he looks to raise his arms and block the shot as such, or trying to block with his hands is going to make the huge difference, but I think Overeem anticipates the big single punch that JDS tends to throw from left field, and countering it. But at the same time I wouldn't be surprised in the least if JDS lands something halfway, buzzes Reem and is able to finish him. Reem turns into a totally different animal when he gets buzzed, so JDS has that as an advantage.. If he can land something halfway flush, he can buzz people. But that aside when looking at pure technique, I see Overeem with some nice advantages.
" Walking him down " , thats very interesting also , so i take it you see Overeem walking in , putting dos Santos on the back foot and timing him moving off to his side , or as dos Santos engages ???
