Jermain Taylor vs. Carl Froch - WBC 168 lbs Title

Before Froch v. Pascal and Taylor v. Lacy, I had my doubts about this fight, but most of them have been dispelled since. I had assumed for example that:

1. Froch has true one-punch KO power...e.g. a la Berrio. Now I know he does not. He clocked Pascal flush a few times with good shots, and he hurt him, but not didn't drop him.

2. Froch had an iron chin e.g. a la Andrade. Now I know that he can be hurt even by shots that aren't very hard.

So, now I think Froch's chin is just very good, like that of Bute, say.

The Lacy fight made me believe in Taylor's skill a lot more, especially against a fighter like Froch. The way Taylor controlled the distance in this fight opened my eyes. He showed intelligence and ring-craft. He knew when to clinch and how, to protect himself against hooks for example. He was cool in situations that might have phased lesser fighters. Against Froch, these qualities will play an important role.

What worries me about Taylor in this fight is the way he backs up in a straight line when under pressure, sometimes. This would be a big mistake against Froch, who has a long range, who likes to come forward aggressively. I can see Froch knocking him down during one of these exchanges. I can't see him stopping him that easily, though. It's more likely that Taylor would lose balance after a flash knockdown than be hurt badly, given Froch's speed, movement/footwork and how predictable his shots are.

Another thing that worries me is the way the fight might develop late on. Froch might grit his teeth and take his beating like a man, like you said, but still come forward late on, throwing everything at Taylor. Froch is strong and tough and he has very good stamina. Might he be able to tire Taylor down sufficiently to hurt him and stop him? Possibly.

More likely, though, given Taylor's considerable skill and speed advantage, his ringcraft and big-fight experience, he should be able to set the rhythm that suits him, and not get too tired, late on.

His superior movement and excellent jab should allow him to control the distance and create space too.

Taylor is a better fighter than he was against Pavlik I, let's not forget that.

If Taylor performs as well as he did against Lacy, and Froch only marginally better than as he did in his best performance so far - against Pascal, Taylor should win a very wide decision, something like 9-3. If Taylor gets cocky or too ambitious early on, and he gasses late on, he might be in a bit of trouble, but he's too good not to be able to survive Froch, IMO.

Froch KO? Small chance...

If Taylor is in grand form, he might even stop Froch...but small chance again.

For me, right now, it's something like:

Taylor wide UD: 40%
Taylor close UD: 20%
Taylor late stoppage on accummulation/cuts: 15%
Froch close UD, involving a flash KD or two and a late rally:15%
Froch KO/TKO: 10%

I can't give Froch more than a 1/4 chance in this...altough I'm tempted to make it more like 1/5. (I might be overrating Froch's chances on the close UD.)