~Joan GUZMAN v. Humberto SOTO ~ ANALYSIS Thread~

In the bag? Come on! Soto will have to make a perfect fight to win, even against a Guzman who fools about!

 

There's some Soto stuff on Youtube...enough to see his main strengths.

 

I hope people who pick Guzman do so having watched Soto not just on the basis that Guzman has elite skills and is under pressure to win this if his career is to go somewhere big...

 

Any Guzman fan out there convinced Joan will fight a very disciplined intelligent fight, keeping to the strategy most likely to bring him the win at lowest risk?

 

I am disappointed people don't get hyped about this fight!

 

Guzman-Soto: Nobody Else Will Fight 'Em

By Jake Donovan


Another weekend, another upcoming fight between two fighters facing each other just for the hell of it. In a division where there is plenty of money to be made by playing it safe and holding out for bigger game, a pair of junior lightweight contenders instead opt to face each other, with little more than bragging rights at stake.
This month's edition of HBO's Boxing After Dark, in a nutshell.
Boxing junkies are in for a treat as Humberto Soto and undefeated Joan Guzman collide in the lone live fight to air this weekend (Saturday, HBO, 9:45PM ET/PT, Atlantic City, NJ). With Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao generally regarded as the top two junior lightweights in the world, the winner of this fight should warrant consideration as 'best of the rest', at the very least.
It's been a long road to the top for both contestants, though for very different reasons.
For Guzman (27-0, 17KO), it's been a difficult run ever since turning pro following one of the most successful amateur careers in Dominican boxing history (310-10 in the non-pay ranks), including a trip to the 1996 Olympics. Much of his prime has been plagued by inactivity, due in part to the majority of notable contenders from 122-130 unwilling to share a ring with the Brooklyn-based Dominican boxer-puncher; the rest due to the wrong people being placed in charge of looking out for his best interests.
There was a time where Guzman seemingly had more promoters than fans. Frank Warren, Goossen Tutor, Sycuan Ringside, Zanfer, Golden Boy – it's almost easier to list the promoters who didn't have paper on Guzman at one point or another during his 11-year, 27-fight career.
Such was a heavy price to pay – agreeing to give options to rival promoters for a chance at a notable fight here, and an alphabet trinket there. Yet through it all, Guzman failed to secure a big fight with any of the big names during his stay at 122 and 126. The closest he came was a planned April 2005 unification bout with then-fellow 122 lb. alphabet titlist Oscar Larios, a bout that was supposed to be the lone selling point of an otherwise pathetic PPV card in El Paso, TX, headlined by Marco Antonio Barrera.
Instead, the plans would fall in line with Guzman's career progress at the time – if not for bad luck, no luck at all.
Larios instead took on a perceived tune-up against Wayne McCullough, only for McCullough to offer his best performance in years before coming up just short in their nationally televised (FoxSports) February 2005 bout. Larios barely escaped with the victory, though hardly unscathed, suffering an injury severe enough to "postpone" the Guzman showdown.
Guzman would learn the hard way that "postponed", in reference to his bouts, apparently has a different meaning than the word's traditional definition. The Larios bout was never rescheduled, but flat out scrapped altogether. Instead, Guzman traveled further south - Hidalgo, TX, to be exact – where he took on then-fellow unbeaten 122 lb. pugilist Fernando Beltran Jr on a TV Azteca card co-headlined by Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
The exposure wasn't much, but it was the first of five straight (and counting) televised appearances lined up by manager and longtime friend Jose Nunez, who took over the reins in late 2004, replacing the inept Rafael Guerrero, who helps waste much of Guzman's prime by making more enemies than alliances during their time together.
Prior to his alliance with Nunez, which would subsequently lead to a promotional deal with Golden Boy Promotions, Guzman was something of a cult hero within the sport. Impressive showings against Agapito Sanchez and Fabio Oliva earned the Dominican the nickname "El Pequeño Tyson" (Little Tyson) among his fan base, though very few even in the general boxing media could honestly claim they were familiar with his career.
Nunez helped change that thanks to the aforementioned alliance with Golden Boy. The move was a risk, as Guzman already had enough hands in his pockets. But it also led to three fights in a seven-month span, a rate of activity Guzman hadn't been privy to since winning his first alphabet title earlier in the decade. Included among the lot was his breakthrough performance against Jorge Barrios last September in Las Vegas.
Serving as the chief support to the Marco Antonio Barrera-Rocky Juarez PPV rematch, Guzman showed the boxing world why he has been long revered on the underground level as one of the game's most complete fighters. The free-swinging Barrios had little answers for Guzman's attack, other than some assistance from the ringside judges, who somehow saw the bout close enough to warrant a split decision, but at least getting the winner correct in the end.
Bad luck once again struck Guzman earlier in 2007, when he was scheduled to take on defensively challenged unbeaten lightweight Michael Katsidis on Boxing After Dark. Guzman suffered an injury and was forced to withdraw less than two weeks before the fight, with the bout never being rescheduled.
Instead, Guzman was forced to do what he does best these days – sit on the shelf, awaiting the soul brave enough to stand in the opposite corner.
Enter Humberto Soto, whose tale is far more rags-to-riches. There was no Olympic glory to speak of for the hard-nosed Mexican brawler. No pristine amateur career, though boasting a respectable record of 42-5-2, 1NC before turning pro in 1997.
Nor were there any top fighters avoiding him – mainly because none knew who the hell he was. Soto fought almost exclusively in Mexico before being brought to the states (mainly Las Vegas) by then-promoter Guilty Boxing earlier in the decade. The stateside exposure did little to further Soto's career. In fact, a 2002 majority decision loss to faded former featherweight champ Kevin Kelley had the Mexican, 23-5-2 after the fight, pegged as a career journeyman.
Apparently Soto wasn't big on labels, particularly ones indicative of anything less than the talent he believed he posses. Training habits changed, as did his style and overall approach to the game. But not even a 14-fight unbeaten streak could convince the boxing world that there was substance to his record (37-3-2-1NC, 21KO).
It obviously didn't convince Main Events or manager Shelly Finkel, who handled the career of 2000 Olympic silver medalist and then-unbeaten Rocky Juarez, who was in need of an opponent after In Jin Chi pulled up lame two weeks prior to their scheduled August 2005 HBO co-feature battle. All parties agreed on Soto as a worthy last-minute replacement, with Juarez-Soto now sanctioned as an interim title fight. That Juarez would leave the ring with his first alphabet strap was a given, with the bout itself supposedly a mere formality.
Whoops.

 

Guzman-Soto: Nobody Else Will Fight 'Em

By Jake Donovan

-ctd.

Soto took full advantage of the once in a lifetime opportunity, dominating Juarez throughout, with a pair of fouls late in the fight proving the difference between a runaway upset win and the official verdict, a majority decision in one of the year's biggest shockers.
No longer a lightly regarded journeyman, Soto was now a bonafide contender, and ready to cash in on the newfound success. Only there was no longer anything in the queue. Those seeking last-minute opponents in perceived overmatched fights against their thoroughbreds suddenly stopped calling. Lesson learned by Soto – there's no such thing as a fair fight when you become high-risk, low reward.
A certain unbeaten Dominican can surely relate.
Soto hoped to change up his luck when he signed with Top Rank in 2006. New promoter, along with a new weight class after none of the other fish were biting in the featherweight waters. A mismatch against Ivan Valle was thinly disguised as a junior lightweight elimination match, as Arum planned for the winner (Soto, by 4 th round knockout) to challenge Marco Antonio Barrera. Either that, or he just wanted to stick it to Oscar de la Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions, back when the two sides weren't talking.
Whatever the case, Barrera-Soto never happened. Barrera instead went on to lose to Juan Manuel Marquez, while Soto awaited his next opportunity, which he hoped was a crack at Filipino buzzsaw Manny Pacquiao. Such was the rumor prior to Soto's June 2007 HBO PPV showcase bout against Bobby Pacquiao, Manny's far less talented brother. The perception was that Soto would beat Bobby, setting up a "My Brother's Keeper" type them for an October PPV rumored to take place anywhere from El Paso, Texas to Vancouver, Canada.
Soto held up his end, though enduring some rough moments before finally taking out Pac-Lite in seven. But there was no keeping it in the family. Instead, Arum decided to kiss and make up with longtime student Oscar, and the two would join hands in harmony and plan out their fall schedule.
Fittingly enough, the October PPV would be headlined by the last two major fighters Soto was rumored to face – Pacquiao and Barrera. A pair of fighters that Guzman had been patiently waiting to fight – in fact the very reason he moved up to 130 in the first place.
But alas, there was more business to be made between new best friends Arum and de la Hoya. Last week's PPV event, headlined by Miguel Cotto's distance win over Shane Mosley, was the second of three co-promotions between the two Left Coast-based outfits. The two aforementioned PPV headliners were made because it made good business sense to Arum and Golden Boy.
The last of the trifecta – and perhaps in the promoters' minds, the least -is this weekend's showdown between Soto and Guzman.
Why? Because nobody else will fight them. A status both fighters hope to change come Sunday morning.

Jake Donovan is a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America and presently serves on the Tennessee Boxing Advisory Board. His column runs every Tuesday on ***********.

 

If you can box like this, you are rather good, whatever the level of the opposition:

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Guzman must know Soto will have nothing to lose. He will know Soto will try to get him into the mood to brawl. He will know Soto will then keep his cool and box, using brawling moves only to bait Guzman. Knowing all this, will Guzman go crazy in there, trying to blow Soto away? Because that wouldn't be the best strategy!

This is the last chance for Guzman. He must take it. He must box intelligently. I think he will know this. I think at his age, after so many false dawns, he will know he has to win this and look good in the process. And looking good will not mean outbrawling Soto in a macho, hit-me-I-don't-care kind of way.

Do you think Guzman will throw it away? Don't you think that if he has the right attitude he will beat whatever Soto shows up on the night? Is Guzman's temperament so questionable?

 

Any Spanish speakers have any news about the fighters? How is their preparation going? Are they having problems making weight?

 

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Guzman began boxing at age eight. He turned to boxing because it was an extension of what he did on the street everyday as a youth--fight. “I was a rough kid,” said Guzman. “I learned to fight because it was part of growing up. My family was poor. Our house had so many holes in the roof that when it rained I would get more wet staying inside than if I went outside.”

“I believe I am not only the best puncher, but the best boxer in both the 130- and 135-pound weight classes,” said Guzman.