~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

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Calzaghe ud. Mainly because of Joes footwork being superior at the moment, Hopkins wont be able too shut him down like Eastman or Winky. People go on about Calzaghes workrate but although it will be a factor I dont think it will be decisive. This fight will be won by whoever can outmanouver the other and decide where and when exchanges will take place. Dictating the fight so to speak.
Although clearly past his best Hopkins still has timing and accuracy and remains dangerous.

 

My prediction is Hopkins will never be stupid enough to take this fight, no matter how much GBP might pressure him to.

 

I pasted most of this from my old post: Hopkins is nearly shot at this point and he has horrible stamina/workrate, something that will be essential in this fight. He will try to outmuscle Calzaghe and rough him up, but it will make him very tired too and not benefit him as much as it did in the past. Calzaghe is not Winky, he is very large and strong himself. Hopkins' timing is not what it once was and his speed has faded significantly, so he will have a hard time connecting on the much quicker Calzaghe. Joe is so quick on his feet and awkward on the inside that Hopkins will have a lot more trouble clinching with him than he did against other fighters he's faced in recent years (or anybody since Jones). Also, the great activity level and in-out movement of Calzaghe will simply be a nightmare for Hopkins, who is way, way, way past his best. Someone with the activity level and solid skills of Glen Johnson would give Hopkins all he could handle right now, so thinking that he has any chance of winning a 12 round fight against Calzaghe who fights every second of every round isn't logical.

I watched Hopkins-Wright again recently (very exciting, I know) and I think Hopkins is a lot more shot than people think he is and the only reason he looked a little bit good was because Winky is nearly shot himself and was at a weight he doesn't belong at. If the match happens, Bernard will be fighting in April, nearly a year after the Wright match, so he will be borderline shot at that point. After Calzaghe destroys him, he won't even be able to hang in with any of the top 10 LHW's.

Calzaghe will not fight Hopkins' old man fight, he will do the opposite. He has a very good chance of stopping Hopkins if Bernard is as past-it as I think he is. After having big issues with Calzaghe's pace and constant smart pressure for 6 rounds, Hopkins will be very tired and not be able to do much about it. There will be clinches in this fight, but not even close to the amount that we've seen from Hopkins in the last few years. Calzaghe is too smart to let him waste time clinching and he will use those opportunities to find/create openings and land short, quick punches while also roughing him up with his physical strength. I see this fight as 60% Calzaghe shut-out, 30% Calzaghe TKO, 5-10% Calzaghe win because of a DQ, and less than 5% Hopkins gift decision win. A DQ is realistic here because Hopkins will be in a situation where he will get very desperate. If a ref is selected that will be strict about Hopkins' dirty fighting things might get very interesting. Hopkins' ego is huge and I think he'd rather get disqualified when he sees he can't win rather than get knocked out or completely owned. I really hope this does not happen though, it would be very sad to see Hopkins leave boxing on that kind of a note.

To have any chance of winning, Hopkins would have to take a huge risk and make it a brawl early on. He would never do this because if it didn't work he would definitely get stopped, but this is the only way I could see him win. If he headbutts Calzaghe, gets lucky, and opens up a huge cut on his head in the first round it would make Joe more willing to engage in a wild fight. After that Hopkins would have to go all out and throw everything he has at him and act like it's a 4 round fight. In these rounds he could possibly win by TKO if Calzaghe gets too confident and makes some dumb mistakes. But the chances of him connecting on Calzaghe with consecutive flush power shots are slim to none, so this is all just a tiny possibility. I would love to see Hopkins get this win and become a top 5 ATG, but this is all just a fantasy. This fight does not need to happen because Hopkins, a rare boxer who has never been dominated during a fight in his life will suffer exactly that.

 

Bslop by way of robbery

 

Calzaghe by mugging over 12 one-sided rounds.

 

Bernard Hopkins will only take this fight if he knows the judges are in his pocket.

They might score it 119-109 Calzaghe instead of 120-108 Calzaghe, if they are highly corrupt.

 

HUKI - you called B-Hop Shot! You're crazy.

The guy started his career late - has never really be in any real fighting wars - hardly ever takes any punishment - and he's still fighting the same way he did 5 years ago - CAUTIOUS! He's undefeated against Southpaws and White Guys - and Calzaghe is both. (Just joking about the White Guy stuff - so let it go.)

B-Hop by UD - in what should be a very good fight. Mainly because Joe will make the fight.

 

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What do you think they each bring to the table?

calzaghe - punch rate, underestimated power, speed, fitness, determination, youth, athletic intelligence, boxing ability, south paw, enzo calzaghe, 5,000 scraming welsh. Rock solid chin.

Hopkins - can adapt to any style, athletic inteligence, boxing abiltity. great chin.

what do you expect there strategy to be?

Calzaghe - High work rate, loads of punches.

Hopkins - i have no idea, he must see something and thats why he wants the fight, i just think like alot of other he has underestimated calzaghes speed and power and boxing ability. Those Slaps Hurt.

How could each win

Calzaghe - Fight at a ridiclious pace. Humiliates Hopkins by destroying the old man, throws to many punches, Hopkins defence not copping.

Hopkins - Has spotted something nobody else has.

How do you think the fight will play out

Humiliates Hopkins by destroying the old man, throws to many punches, fights at to fast a pace. Hopkins defence cannot cope. Puts Hopkins down a few times.

what is your prediciton

Calzaghe UD12 - wide

 

Calzaghe is undefeated against orthodox fighters, black guys, asian guys, blue guys. Actually Calzaghe is undefeated against everybody, :yep.

 

I called him nearly shot. He's nearly 43. Watch the Winky fight and look at him compared to how he was 10 years ago.

That southpaw argument is meaningless. You don't beat Calzaghe just by being "cautious", he's not Antonio Tarver.. I think it takes a little more. You should explain exactly what Bernard would do to win. Don't forget to consider his horrible workrate/stamina/fading abilities.

 

Sorry mate, but Hopkins wasn't always cautious. He got his nick name excecutioner for a reason. In his prime, he was sharp every minute of every round. Not so today.

While many seem to think that Hopkins is oh so smart and mentally strong, I say that Joe is the much tougher fighter mentally. Proof: Hopkins is far more skilled that Taylor, yet gave those fights away due to inactivity. I think he should have been awarded the decision in the second fight, but still he has only himself to blame. That was plain stupid and showing entitlement issues rather than the type of confidence Joe has, which makes him fight every half - minute of every round.

 

Joe will prevail with ease. Hopkins probably won't even win a single round.

Expect to see Hopkins make up for his lack of talent by even greater than usual use of is head to cut Joe & get the TKO although he'll fail miserably.

 

I stopped reading after this because if you had been paying attention, you would realize that his workrate has jumped noticeably in his last 2 fights. Or after he moved up to LHW. He has stated many times that he feels like he has more energy left at this weight because he doesn't have to drain down. And he feels like he has that extra power in his punches.