~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

He clearly has the wrong mindset, wouldn't you agree?

Bernard will make the fight a boring affair, and Calzaghe will feel pressure to live up to his commitment to make it a good fight. He'll rush in and make mistakes, and he'll pay.

Calzaghe stands a good chance of winning, but with a mindset like that he will loose.

 

ANALYSIS OF BERNARD HOPKINS vs JOE CALZAGHE

WHAT DO YOU THINK EACH WILL BRING TO THE TABLE?

Hopkins: Ring generalship, cageyness, dedication, craft, great footwork, experience, perfect record against southpaws, counter punching ability, elite defensive skills, punch variety, punches from different angles, technical in-fighting, solid physical strength, versatility, timing, subtle (and not so subtle) dirty tactics used to get opponents out of their gameplan and fight his fight, adaptability, chin, toughness, and heart. He basically has all of the tricks in the book and can accurately be called a fighter who can do it all. Negatives include his age (43), decreasing speed, slowed timing, decreased power, relatively low workrate, and decreasing stamina.

Calzaghe: Championship level experience, ability to box behind a jab, ability to effectively pressure, ability to relentlessly swarm, undefeated record, great hand speed, unpredictable in and out movement, subtle feints that make it difficult for opponents to time him and predict when he is going to punch, awkward punches, blistering workrate, underrated power, versatility, adaptability, chin, toughness, heart, recuperative abilities, very good defensive skills even when he's fighting aggressively, solid physical strength, excellent in-fighter, insane stamina, youth (compared to Hopkins). Negatives things he brings are a susceptibility to straight lead right hands, slowed reflexes and speed, a tendency to slug at times and let emotions get the best of him, inferior balance compared to Hopkins, and his 36 year old body.

WHAT DO EXPECT THEIR STRATEGY TO BE?

Hopkins: Hopkins will try to use Calzaghe's workrate against him. He'll look to take away Calzaghe's right jab and look for openings to counter him. He wants to make this a fight at his pace. Hopkins will try to set traps for Calzaghe in which he falls out of position, then counter him when he is off-balance and out of position. Like he did against Tarver, I believe Hopkins will take steps back, luring Calzaghe in, and trying to time him with right hands when Calzaghe doesn't expect it. However, with that said, Hopkins won’t work his jab at all in this fight. This is because 1) Calzaghe's style makes it hard to establish a jab and 2) Hopkins has never made his jab an important weapon against southpaws. After Hopkins' single shots, he'll run in and grab Calzaghe, trying to take him out of his gameplan. Once he is on the inside, look of Hopkins to hit him in the hip where Cortez cannot see him. Expect a head butt here and there since Hopkins would love to cut Calzaghe the way he did with Wright. If he successfully cuts him, it's a possibility that the fight has to be stopped on cuts or it could potentially get Calzaghe out of his rhythm. In other words, Hopkins wants to rough Calzaghe up at close quarters the way he did with Winky Wright.

Calzaghe: Calzaghe is really a mystery. He can fight in almost any style, and beat his opponents in all of those styles. Against Kessler, I expected him to beat him by making it an inside fight. To my surprise, he ended up out jabbing Kessler and establishing his superiority on the outside. Against Hopkins, I think Calzaghe will fight a smart in and out fight early on, making it difficult for Hopkins to time him with straight lead right hands and also to tie him up in close. He’ll be conscious that the lead right hand is Hopkins’ main weapon. I see Calzaghe looking to get the better of him from a distance with his superior in and out movement. While Hopkins is a master of controlling the pace, Calzaghe is, too. It is entirely possible that Calzaghe’s movement and punch output will dictate the tempo. As the fight progresses and both fighters have an idea of the other’s style, Calzaghe will gradually step it up and pressure Hopkins. However, he won’t try to pressure him straight-on in a conventional manner, but rather from selective angles. Once he gets in close, he’ll throw quick combinations and angle himself out of harm’s way. Calzaghe will invest in a lot of body work with the intent of slowing Hopkins down for the later rounds. He’ll attempt to overwhelm Hopkins with speed, workrate, and in and out movement who cannot fight at the pace that Calzaghe can.

HOW COULD EACH WIN?

Hopkins: Hopkins can win if he has more left in the tank than I, or many others, think he has. Because, quite frankly, I don’t think he has much left. If it turns out that he still has the timing and movement he had a few years back, he could set the pace, catch Calzaghe coming in with lead right hands, catch him in the middle of his combinations or flurries, prevent Calzaghe from getting off with 1,000+ punches, and land the cleaner shots. He needs to bring the perfect gameplan to pull this off. Another way he can win is the way I mentioned earlier; head butt and cut Calzaghe badly enough to get him out of his rhythm and venture away from his gameplan. Should Calzaghe get very wild and reckless because of this (or because he grows frustrated with Hopkins’ spoiling tactics), Hopkins could open up more and really catch him. Additionally, Calzaghe could be stopped on cuts, which is obviously ridiculously unlikely. But anything can happen in boxing.

Calzaghe: Calzaghe can win if he sticks to his gameplan and doesn’t let Hopkins’ mauling and roughhousing tactics get to his head. If he is able to effectively move in and out at a quick pace, make it difficult for Hopkins to time his bread and butter punch, and get the better of him at long range, he can win. The key here is for Calzaghe to get off first. Another thing to think about is Calzaghe’s own physical strength, craftiness, tactics, hand speed, and fluidity on the inside. Hopkins may find it extremely difficult to do to Calzaghe what he did with Wright because of the aforementioned factors. Calzaghe is mentally tougher than Wright and is far more versatile. Calzaghe can sit down on his punches if Hopkins gets really tired from his constant body/head attack. In the Wright fight, Hopkins was breathing heavily in the middle rounds from Wright’s pressure. Now ask yourself if Wright brings the speed, angles, or power than Calzaghe does.

HOW DO YOU THINK THIS FIGHT WILL PLAY OUT?

I expect Hopkins to look very old, and shot, in the beginning. His legs won’t look strong and his speed/timing will decrease substantially. Calzaghe will make Hopkins fight at his pace – something that we have rarely seen somebody do to Hopkins. In the beginning, he’ll just look to find his rhythm and figure out Hopkins. He will fight a fast pace in-and-out fight, outworking Hopkins, and making him fight at a faster pace than he likes (or physically can manage at this point). I see Calzaghe's style being more effective than Hopkins' style. Honestly, I don't envision Hopkins winning a round. And if he does, it will be a feeling-out round. Once Hopkins shows signs of fatigue, Calzaghe will up the pressure, attacking Hopkins from different angles, throwing combinations upstairs and downstairs and resetting. I expect Hopkins to get hit much more than he ever has in this fight and as the fight enters the late rounds, he’ll go into a shell as it is clear he cannot deal with Calzaghe’s speed and ultra-quick swarming. Calzaghe will go for the kill and step it up even more. As Hopkins finds himself getting hit with an endless barrage of punches in a corner or against the ropes, Freddie Roach or Joe Cortez will step in to save him from taking even more of a beating. A sad end to a magnificent career in a fight that would have been winnable when he was in his prime.


WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION?
Joe Calzaghe TKO10 Bernard Hopkins

(I'd love nothing more than to be proved completely wrong )

 

BK by Tko.

 

...I'll also add that if Hopkins lasts the distance, he'll lose an extremely lopsided decision (12-0 on two cards with 11-1 on the other)

 

Tho I disagree WHOLEHEARTEDLY with your prediction...as always you at least come with a very high quality breakdown.

Im gonna post mine closer to fight night...

 

This is the first time since 1994 that I've picked against Bernard. I'm just so damn worried about his age after rewatching the Wright fight several times. I hope he proves me wrong in a big way.

 

Very well written, with good pointers, Brooklyn1550. Your assesment is so good, that everything will hold true to every letter.

Calzaghe will probably lose some speed, and will probably not be as good as he was against Kessler or Lacy - but it won't really matter.

Hopkins have picked his fights very well in the past, but this will not turn out very well for him.

 

Im went through so many scenarios over the past few weeks, and ive now settled on one, a Joe Calzaghe clear wide UD by at least 6 rounds

 

Hopkins is getting schooled in this fight, plain and simple. Calzaghe 119-109.

 

good close fight throughout. I wouldn't be surprise if this fight went down to a split-decision.

 

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