~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

Yeah. Correct/

 

Anyone!?:?

My reply is that Calzaghe will pick his shots more. He's done that quite a lot against Kessler - successfully. Pick his shots, put a bit more power on them and use footwork and head/upper body movement to avoid counter rights and to reposition himself. He will employ his usual fluid style.If that doesn't work, faint with his jab and counterpunch the conterpuncher, employing movement and the same fluid style. Not quite what Winky did, was it?

 

McGrain's reasons why Hopkins has a chance to win:

1 - Enzo Calzaghe. Enzo is a smart tactitian. He is also exactly the right man to handle Joe. In Wales. Now he is handling him in Vegas. According to Boxing Monthly, Calzaghe has been talking to Hatton and Hatton's people, and certain adjustments have been made - where they will stay, awareness conerning the air conditioning etc. But Enzo is still, essentially, is an old fashioned man who perhaps doesn't have the patience assoicated with a modern camp boss (think Roach) and he is working in America for the first time. Can he control the camp in the same way? Will he be able to put his hands on the things he needs in the same way as back home? Will he be able to work patiently and properly with the people who may be working against him in these matters for the Hopkins camp? You rarely hear of a camp going badly before a fight. We may hear that the camp didn't go as well as it could have after.

2 - The Weight. Peope have tried to take the Hopkins win over Tarver and it's a disgrace. They say that Tarver looked terrible against Hopkins and anyone could have beaten him. This, despite the fact that he looked great beating Jones 8 months previous and just fine destroying Woods at the weekend. Hopkins is proven at the weight. Joe is not. Now in my opinion Joe will be just as good at 175 as he would have been at 168. He might even be better - he says he will be better - but if one of the miriad of things that can go wrong at a new weight at his age does go wrong, this can become a serious factor.

3 - Hopkins is under Calzaghe's skin. This has never happened before - he's been bossed at the various press conferences and religios about running down Bernard in one on one's in the press. I also feel he is concerned about an assualt on his person by Hopkins a la Winky. How will this affect the fight plans?

4 - The Hopkins fight plan. What is Hopkins fight plan? Well, we don't know. So far, all that has come out of the Hopkins camp is bull****. Freddy Roach: "We are going for the knockout." Well, not they're not. Hopkins can't KO Calzaghe. Furthermore, Hopkins: "That is what [the result of the fight] comes down to. Who can change the other guys style and take him out of his comfort zone." No. Calzaghe proved against Kessler that he can change in the face of what he is experiencing and bring out a plan B every bit as good as his plan A. Calzaghe's comfort zone is better and wider than Hopkins indicates here. But Hopkins knows this. His plan B and C will be crucial. Given that he is the best tactitian and general in the game they may be THE crucial factor. In fact, given that Joe is probably the second best general in the world, whatever difference exsists may be the thing that decides the result.

5 - The Calzaghe fight plan - can he be draw out of it if it is working? Hopkins is an expert spoiler and a difficult man to share the ring with. If Calzaghe is winning with his original fight plan Hopkins will turn to the dark arts. Remeber Calzaghe against Bika? He was made terribley uncomfortable by such tactics AT HOME against a fighter who, compared to Hopkins, is limited. This will be the final test for Calzaghe. If he can solve this, he can solve Bernard. If he gets drawn into Hopkins world - SD The Executioner.

6 - Calzaghe's hands and punching technique. Calzaghe: "My left hand is sore to the touch now. I have to make adjustments for that." Duke Mackenzie: "I'm going for Hopkins...over here, Joe gets away with plenty, in American I beleive his percieved slapping could result in point deductions causing Calzaghe to panic and become an out of control windmill." Remember: Joe fights outside the rules of the sport when he slaps. Referees and judges may not like it.

7 - "Hopkins has a great record against southpaws." He does indeed. 11-0. In my opinion because:

8 - "Hopkins is great at taking away his opponents best weapon." This is the crux, and he will show it again. However, I don't agree that this is Joe's speed, or even his workrate. It's his composite awkwardness. Joe is very very hard to box. Hopkins will solve this issue in the same way he always does v Southpaws - with footwork and balance.

9 - Joe Calzaghe: "I beat people with speed." He does indeed. Now for the newsflash: Joe has slowed down. How much? Not much. But what if he has slowed again, say, by the same amount as he did between Lacey and Kessler? SD, Hopkins.

10 - The punch that Calzaghe is most vulnerable to is Hopkins' best. The coutner right hand down the pipe.

11 - Hopkins is one of the best counterpunchers to have ever breathed. I believe this. I also beleive that Joe's jab is counterable. He has a good jab, but he loads up behind it and is often vulnerable for a split second in between. I've seen it. So Hopkins has seen it. Vulnerable. Also, when he gets hit, he often draws defence from offecne, throwing a grouping of shots that often don't have a lot on them. Vulnerable. Hopkins: "He comes exactly as I want him to come. Straight forward and busy."

Having said all this, I favour Calzaghe

But some people overstate the case. I bet my card will read something like 8-4 or 7-5, but if some of the above goes Hopkins way - and there's a good chance it will - and if Hopkins scores a flash KD in round three and Calzaghe panics a bit, don't be surprised to see a judges scorecard read quite differently. And if two of them end up reading for still the Ring's light-heavyweight champion of the world, don't be to surprised.

 

Here's how I see it...my last formal analysis has been overly simplistic:

The biggest difference about Calzaghe at 175 is that he will have more power than at 168.

I see the fight going a bit like this:

In the first 2 rounds, both men will figure each other out - they will reset and keep their distance and be fairly reserved, - two close rounds that can go either way. Then, I can see Hopkins doing a better and better job of timing Calzaghe with his counters. I think rounds 3-4 will go to Hopkins. Calzaghe will respond by employing a fluid, unpredictable style based on versatile, clever, fast and constant footwork, unpredictable constant headmovement and upper-body movement, and on top of that - clever, fast feints to keep Hopkins guessing. Calzaghe will pick his punches more than usual, making them count and employing his greater power more, use faints to draw Hopkins in to counterpunch the counterpuncher and use his fluid responsive style to make Bernard's attack less effective. By the time Bernard sees that opening for the straight right down the pipe, it's already gone, much of the time. Calzaghe will use his jab, but not to come inside or open Hopkins up. That wouldn't work. The jab will be used to score straight points - Calzaghe will sit on his punches more - the jab will be effective. Unlike Winky, he won't just stand there to be hit after jabbing. He will move a lot to keep Hopkins on his toes, not giving him time to go down the pipe or to come inside and clinch and reset and do his dark stuff on the inside - Hopkins will be looking for those constant breaks and wrestling matches followed by toe-to-toe fights in the pocket, but Calzaghe will not offer them, as far as he can avoid doing so. He will instead continue to move, move, move, picking his punches, throwing fast combos - but not swarming, keeping his distance so that he is ready to move away as Hopkins tries to come in again, or land that counter right down the pipe. This is where the speed and workrate will play a big role. This is where the stamina will make a difference.

Calzaghe will not come in like this:

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(Thanks, Dorf)

This is precisely the kind of stuff he will not be doing.

So, how will he come in? He won't. Why would he come in? He won't swarm Hopkins! That would be dumb. He'll keep his distance, but keep himself close enough to react whenever he sees an opening on a reacting Hopkins - this is where the better reflexes come in. He will use feints and movement to make Hopkins get out of position enough for Calzaghe to land a couple of effective punches in a bunch, before moving from position and continuing to pick his shots - like he did against Kessler, but more effectively.

Hopkins, cannot simply lunge at him, and miss, try to clinch and do his thing on the inside - that wouldn't win him rounds. And Calzaghe will make him miss, using this fluid, responsive, strategy. So, Hopkins will have to either lose round after round, or get himself in the position where he can throw those nice combos to the body himself. Well, that would play right into Calzaghe's hands. That's when he will afford to use his fast hands in flurries. But this time, he will have more power. By the late rounds, as Hopkins is more tired, as he wants to clinch more and use more better timed, precise shots down the pipe, Calzaghe's fluid, responsive and unpredictable styel will make it harder and harder for Hopkins to do anything. The stamina, workrate, reflexes and speed - and Calzaghe's greater power at 175 - will make a difference. Through accumulation effective punching, a stoppage could result late on. This is why I can see Calzaghe not just winning 9 rounds or so (with Hopkins winning about 3), but also a late stoppage.