~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

There you go...no mystery...this is what he will do: angles at mid-range, movement for defence and attack, all backed up by great footwork, constant movement and delivered with power, at speed, at quite a high rate. Plenty of shots to the body...mixing it up real nice, taking the opponent out by hitting all parts of the upper body, etc.

No mystery.

 

Let's start from first priciples: Why did Hopkins take the fight? Because he thought he would win. Why? Because he thought he could do well in the ring and convince the powers that be that politically, he should be supported. The first part first:

Hopkins thought he'd have the following strengths over Calzaghe:

• ring generalship, timing, rhythm, footwork, head and upper body movement, change of pace, angles, ring-smarts/cunning, dark arts, power and strength

Hopkins thought Calzaghe had the following strengths over him:

• speed, stamina, workrate, heroic, proud fighter type

Hopkins thought he could negate Calzaghe's strength because of the styles' clash and because he trained well physically with Shillstone to get the better of Calzaghe. Physically, Hopkins has trained for:

• stamina but mainly strength and power. He will not be trying to match Calzaghe for stamina as much as he will be trying to overpower and out-strength him. The reason is the way he sees Calzaghe fighting:

Calzaghe's ideal style according to Hopkins is this:

• Come forward with wide flurrying weak punches that leave openings, using attack as a means of defence, using angles and feints to get inside to swarm, using workrate to open up the opponent's defence, keep the opponent off balance, break the opponent's rhythm and score with the judges

The reason he thought he had a big style advantage if he trained for strength and power over Calzaghe is because he sees his own style as being this:

• defencive counterpuncher that can draw in opponents with feints and tricks of handmovement, footplacement and footmovement and upper body movement. Once the opponent commits, especially if he comes in with square shoulders flurrying and swarming, he will be left open to powerful, precise, well timed counterpunches, landing down the pipe. When the opponent is on the backfoot, say, after he was knocked back by one such counterpunch, or when Hopkins wants to start an attack, he thought he could use the right over the top which was so effective against Calzaghe against Bika, and use that to come inside for the clinch. Power and strength would help dominate and hurt Calzaghe in the clinch. Calzaghe's proud, fighter type mentality could be exploited by getting under his skin and provoking him, the way Bika did, leading to a complete collapse of style or strategy, falling right into Hopkins' hands.

So...Hopkins thought he would turn the opponents' strengths against him:

• Speed - those ineffective flurries would open up Calzaghe a lot, making him a target
• Workrate - the more (wide) punches he throws, the easier it is for Hopkins to find the right moment to counterpunch him, when Calzaghe is off balance
• Stamina - Calzaghe would chase him, falling into his net every time - the more often the better.

These are the ways in which Hopkins thought he'd get the better of Calzaghe:

• he does well against southpaws and knows how to exploit the weaknesses of the southpaw style, with his great counters and right over the top, particularly since Calzaghe has proven susceptible to both, against Bika, Kessler, etc.
• he doesn't need to match Calzaghe's speed because his balance, rhythm and ring-generalship will set the rhythm and movement in the ring, not just at the macro movement level, but at the micro feint level too.
• he doesn't need to match Calzaghe's stamina because Calzaghe's stamina can be used against Calzaghe - the more stamina he has, the more he'll keep coming forward, the more flurries he will throw
• He doesn't need to match Calzaghe's workrate, since the hard effective counterpunches, properly delivered, always score better than ineffective flurries, in America, unless your name is Dawson.
• On top of that, all these Calzaghe strengths come with the clay feet of a fiery temper and unsteady emotional disposition, which, if provoked, leads to a complete loss of proper strategy and efficient use of those strengths, making those strengths dig a deep hole for Calzaghe to fall into.

So...Hopkins would set up a good rhythm from the start, making Calzaghe think it's an all-action workrate/speed fight, making Calzaghe attack proudly, eager to impress, trying to flurry and swarm Hopkins. Then, he would use his footwork, foot/head/upperbody movement and timing and rhythm to counterpunch Calzaghe as he keeps charging like a bull, use hard precise punterpunches to push him back, set up his own attack with the right lead/over the top, get in on the inside and use his great footwork, balance and upperbody movement to outgun Calzaghe and hurt him with big punches to the body and get into a clinch where he can rough Calzaghe up, do his dirty stuff, hurt Calzaghe will hard punches and with his superior strength, whilst taking a breather, and use his balance, footwork and change of pace to disengage from the clinch, make some space and attract Calzaghe into another attack...and the merrygoround carries on.

Great plan! Makes great sense on paper. Seems foolproof. Would guarantee that Hopkins gets at least close to winning.

For the second part, Hopkins thought he could convince the boxing establishment to give him the win if the fight is reasonably close. He did so by playing up the fight into a America v. Britain fight, by talking up his resume and legendary status, by making himself as an example of fortitude, discipline, courage, neversaydie, always overcoming the worst odds against you attitude loved in America, by making himself as an example of the American dream realised with his human interest story, his ghetto criminal turned good fairytale story and with his overcoming age story - oh...how touching it all is - how much we all admire Hopkins for all of that - how much we all want him to succeed, against the odds.

 

Except...Calzaghe is not going to play it by this script:

Here are Calzaghe's real strengths:

• speed, workrate, angles, power (at 175), experience, confidence, flexibility and as many back-up plans as are required - found and implemented on the spot, according to what challenges the fight presents, at the time, fluid, versatile, responsive style.

So...Calzaghe will not do all that stuff that Hopkins thinks he is bound to do; he will fall into all those traps. Instead, he will use Hopkins' own strengths against him!

Calzaghe will NOT come in, flurring, swarming, throwing 1000 punches, fighting aggressively, losing his head as he did against Bika, making the mistakes he made against Kessler when he was counterpunches down the pipe, etc.

Calzaghe will draw Hopkins into the action instead. He will make Hopkins come forward. He will counterpunch the counterpuncher using his speed and workrate and stamina. How? Well, Hopkins cannot win points by not doing anything. Either he counterpunches or he attacks. To get him to counterpunch, Calzaghe will try to implement a very good jab, trying to score straight points off that. Unlike Winky etc, when Hopkins counters, he will use angles, footwork, head and body movement and feints to counterpunch Hopkins' counters successfully. Not least, he will put some power behind those shots making them count. He will try and draw Hopkins in himself, but move as soon as Hopkins tries to clinch, to prolong the action, continue to counterpunch him, using his better stamina to an advantage. If Hopkins bites, Calzaghe will try to keep the fight in the middle of the ring, and counterpunch Hopkins. If Hopkins backs off, Calzaghe will use feints instead of a real jab to draw him in once more, so that he can counterpunch him. He will do that for as long as it takes. Either Hopkins commits, and then he walks right into a Calzaghe jab, or he doesn't, in which case, he cannot score. If Hopkins cannot be made to commit, Calzaghe uses his strong jab again, to score straight points off that. But rememeber! The jab is only used to make Hopkins commit; it's not used as a main tactic. The main tactic is to counterpunch the counterpuncher with strong, accurate, precise, shots. Here...Calzaghe has an advantage:

• he is faster, more accurate, and more powerful - yes, more powerful - Calzaghe's counterpunches will be more powerful than Hopkins'. Won't be as powerful as Hopkins straight right down the pipe or over the top right, but Calzaghe will minimise the number of times Hopkins will use those anyway.

To get Hopkins to play ball, Calzaghe will use his footwork, stamina and angles to bait Hopkins.

On the whole, Calzaghe will throw around 50 punches per round, at least 15 of which would land. Those punches would be hard punches that would count too - not flurries - but powerpunches delivered at speed in bunches. Hopkins will not throw more than 40 and will not land more than 10.

Calzaghe will avoid the clinches where he is weaker than Hopkins, where Hopkins can rough him up and do the dark stuff and where Hopkins can take a breather, forcing Hopkins to fight and to commit. This is where the stamina and fresher legs come in.

As to Calzaghe's temperament - yeah, it's suspect - he can be made to lose his nerve, go aggressive and fall into Hopkins' net and who better to do it than Hopkins. However, Calzaghe will be ready for that; he will know that is coming; he is experienced enough not to fall into that trap.

For the second part, to get the judges to vote for him, if the fight is close, Calzaghe will take advantage of the race angle - Hopkins shot himself in the foot, of the Cortez angle - he was blamed for the humiliation and defeat of a fellow Brit and he will want to screw Hopkins for the PR flag thing, he will force the judges to vote for him by using hard, precise punches, not slaps, and making a point out of that, he will force the establishment to take a hit to buy itself some badly needed credibility, which they lost with their p4p lists and underrating of Euro-bums. Hopkins has unwittingly laid it on so thick that there can only be a backlash at the establishment level, because the establishment needs to be seen as fair. America needs to be seen as a place where European boxers can come and win, not just get obstructed by referees and robbed.

So...Hopkins thought he was too smart. But Calzaghe isn't stupid! He is not inexperienced either. He can turn it all for himself, whatever Hopkins thinks he can do. And he has the political backing.

Of course, since this is Calzaghe's fight to lose, if he loses his head, like he did against Bika, if he falls into Hopkins' net, if he allows Hopkins to outsmart him and use his own strengths against himself, as Hopkins will try to do, he's screwed. But if a 36 year-old Calzaghe, with all the experience that he has makes those mistakes in a fight he is so up for and so motivated to win - clearly, he is overrated. I have him in my p4p Top 5 and Hopkins in my p4p Top 20.

If Calzaghe gets done by Hopkins...he was never that good in the first place! It's as simple as that. Hopkins will have proven that even the best European unorthodox, flexible and responsive fighter can be beaten, and that doesn't leave much hope for the straight-up European type...

Calzaghe wins this one for sure. Most rounds will be close but Calzaghe will not give away more than 3 rounds. If Hopkins is falls into Calzaghe's net, he will get stopped on accummulation in the late rounds.

Calzaghe TKO 10.

 

"Oh, but Calzaghe's footwork, balance and change of pace aren't good enough to counterpunch Hopkins!"

Yes they are! They don't have to be as good as Hopkins' for them to be good enough. Calzaghe can compensate with stamina - more movement of every kind - foot, body, feints, etc.

"Oh, but Calzaghe throws wide punches when he flurries! Hopkins will punish him!"

Calzaghe will not throw wide punches and he will not flurry. He will NOT SWARM Hopkins! He will use precise, single punches and when he gets Hopkins in trouble, he will bunch them up - but he will not flurry. He will throw combinations and move, combinations and move - all precise, all powerful.

"Oh, but Hopkins will dicatate the rhythm and will be the ring-general in there!"

Sure, but not as much as he thinks. Calzaghe is quite good at that himself. Yeah, Hopkins will be better, but Calzaghe will compensate with speed of foot and stamina. He will outwork Hopkins whilst not falling in his trap.

Calzaghe will use his head in this fight. He will keep his discipline and nerver in this fight. And he will work his ass off to compensate for Hopkins' style advantage and smarts.

If he does that well, he cannot lose. If he fails to fight as well as he can, he will lose, but that's nothing to do with Hopkins!

"Oh, but Hopkins has built himself into a natural LHW now - he is bigger than Joe!"

Yeah, so what...even if he is bigger and stronger than Calzaghe...won't help him much if Calzaghe plays it right! Not just that, but because of Hopkins' bigger muscles, his relative lack of stamina will be even more ruthlessly exploited by Calzaghe! Calzaghe will NOT wrestle with him; he'll take the big guy for a run!

"Oh, but Hopkins has that amazing straight right down the pipe and overthetop, which can come from anywhere!"

So what...Calzaghe has good headmovement and uperbody movement and he's not easy to hit, unless he charges at you like he did against Kessler, or if he pisses about, like he did against Bika.

 

So many people getting their knickers in a twist about this fight, not seeing the wood for the trees! It's ridiculous! Losing their nerve at the last moment and jumping like lemmings off the cliff, one after the other...a sad day for ESB...

 

No way...only guy that can make the other guy look silly is Hopkins. Calzaghe can make Hopkins look old, though.