~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

Hopkins will bring mental tactics more than anything to this fight. He has the ability to get under the skin, to exhaust people before the fight, to wind them up. Joe's temperament is questionable. He's an emotional man if someone makes it personal. If you're respectful to Joe (like Brewer, like Kessler, Eubank and Veit amongst others) he will be the Joe Calzaghe of late: technical and efficient. If you disrespect Joe (like Sheika, Robin Reid), he's had the tendancy to brawl a lot more, neglecting his boxing skills. If Hopkins gets the mind games right, forcing Joe under all sorts of pressure and annoying the **** out of him, this fight could go either way. At 35/36, Joe shouldn't be affected by this, but has shown vulnerability in the past. Technically, Hopkins is rough, throws single punches more often than not and to my mind, doesn't pose the power threat to stop Calzaghe with the Welshman's chin as good as it is.

Joe brings high work-rate, manic combinations, blurring hand speed, adaptability, great boxing skills and a superb chin. That said, Joe has slowed recently and with the extra 7lbs, should slow marginally again. People seem to forget (because of Hopkins' age) that Calzaghe is himself in decline though. This is a money fight for Joe, I don't think he sees Hopkins as much of a threat as he saw Kessler. This under-rating of Bernard could be beneficial when it comes to Hopkins' war of words.

Hopkins' strategy will be to nail Calzaghe on the chin every time Joe threatens to open up a flurry of punches. Bernard will count on accuracy and timing to do this. Bernard will get rough on the inside in a bid to bring the emotional Calzaghe to the ring making more mistakes. Hopkins will hope to win 8 rounds to 4.

Calzaghe will want to box for the first half of the fight. He'll ideally keep Hopkins at range, relying on his speed to get in and out before Hopkins ever knew he was there. He'll work the body and jab his face off early so that by halfway, Hopkins will feel deflated and get reckless. Joe will keep pressing and stand toe to toe in the middle rounds to see what Hopkins has. If he feels on top, he'll move in to stop him. If not, Joe will carry on boxing, picking up rounds until near the end when the showman will come out and try to force a stoppage.

Hopkins can win by disqualification or a hometown decision.

Calzaghe can win by any points margin or a late stoppage.

The first 3 rounds will be all Calzaghe. The next few will be shared before Joe tries to step up the pace. Joe could get hit and staggered while being a bit reckless before the final few rounds are fairly even with an edge to Calzaghe's workrate.

Calzaghe UD 116-112 to anyone sane, but wouldn't be surprised to see one judge give it to Hopkins.

 

The Bika fight was only 2 fights ago and a prime example. Bika had absolutely nothing to bother Joe with in a boxing sense. But Calzaghe gets sucked down to his opponents level. I've seen it time and time again. Find the Starie fight, watch the Reid fight, recap from the first few rounds against Bika etc etc. Joe will be out of his comfort zone. He's not going to be driving to the weigh in himself as usual.

Joe Calzaghe is emotional.

Kessler didn't abuse him, fight dirty or play games, neither did Lacy or Manfredo. Bika did. That was not that long ago. Decebel, it could well be a factor in this fight, believe me.

 

Hopkins will just get KO'd early if he angers Calzaghe.

He has no power of his own, will get knackered and is less tough now than Bika.

Expect Hopkins to have declined a load since Winky, his body and timing are in free-fall now.

 

It is exponential decline at that age.

He will only take this fight if he has lost his mind.

 

I can only see one way for Hopkins to win and thats to do what he did against Wright.

Use JC's come forward style against him, throw a punch and hold, throw a punch and hold, throw a punch and hold.

When you see Calzaghe complaining to the ref about the holding and headbutting from Hopkins, thats when you know Hopkins has control of the fight.

 

Calzaghe on points on what should be a comfortable victory but will probably end up being a lot closer on the scorecards.

 

Calzaghe possesses teh best jab of all time.

Hopkins won't have even seen it coming before it has snapped his head back.

 

This is different.

The boxers that have gone out of their way to **** Joe off before the fight have been few between, but are namely, Robin Reid, Kabary Salem and Omar Sheika. We all saw what happened against Reid and the Sheika performance, though exciting, was wild and reckless.

The boxers that have pissed Joe off in the ring have been Sakio Bika & Kabary Salem (by constant fouling) and Byron Mitchell (by knocking him down). Yes, Joe came through these fights, but again, he reverted to that macho, reckless Joe Calzaghe.

To me, the arguement that this was all in the past is meaningless. The instinct within Calzaghe is just that, instinct. To me, every time a boxer has tried something untoward, Joe reacts by bringing himself down to their level: the points deduction for headbutting vs Salam, the cuts vs Bika, the wild & poor performances vs Reid and Sheika. All suffered while boxers have tried to get under Joe's skin.

Still, I don't think this will be nearly enough for Hopkins to win the boxing match when they play in April but it's a factor to consider when looking at how many rounds Joe will beat him by.

 

Sheika, Reid and Bika all beat current Hopkins, or push him all the way.

 

I can't argue against that. This is an enlighted post.