I've gone back and forth on this one over the years. I could see why folks would go with the superior hand speed of Calzaghe but then again, if he stays in the kitchen too long throwing those long combos with Toney, he is going to get counterpunched and stopped. This is a true 50/50 fight too me.
The Toney of the Barkley and Tim Littles fights would beat any version of Calzaghe. Robin Reid nailed Joe with counter rights regularly, an all-time great counterpuncher like Toney would've really broke him down. A stoppage would be a surprise, but Calzaghe would take a fair bit of punishment in the final third on his way to a UD loss.