That´s an wasy one. We all know Frazier was a fraud while Tua ranks up there with Young, Lyle, Quarry and Ibeabuchi. No way Frazier get´s anywhere close to the fleet-feeted Tua. The Tuaman outboxes the slow moving Frazier and punches his non-moving head off on his way to a wide UD 12-0 in rounds.
It wasn't me who mentioned Frazier's recent death to appeal to others' feelings, in the other thread with the same matchup. It was exactly the same situation before Frazier-Foreman I as you described, where a "nobody" was to be grinded by Frazier easily, in the opinion of tens of experts. So it's your argument that is going against sense. Foreman and Frazier were seen on different levels when they first met, **** the styles matchup. Foreman didn't have a prime per se. Just as there was never was a version of Ali that combined the best qualities pre- (speed, footwork) and post-exile (toughness, strength, heart), there was never a version of Foreman that combined his best qualities of pre- and post-retirement periods. Foreman would look like a novice against Peralta, then he is an ATG against Frazier, then he again looks a novice against Ali and Lyle, against great with Frazier, again clueless against Young. That is a clear sign of being raw, unpolished boxer. As well as a good example of styles matchup, he shines against swarmers, looks like **** against boxers, and is an even thing vs good sluggers.
If they fought a sufficient # of times , Tua would have stopped him at every round from 1 2 12 . Nearly even odds 4 each round .
You could argue that technically, Tua was on par with Foreman. You can't argue that Tua was more effective. Foreman proved himself against a better field of opposition. Tua struggled against the fat, lazy, low-output heavies of the 2000's (he epitomizes them). Senya, there are countless examples of fighters who are coming up and haven't been tested yet roaring out and conquering a favorite. Fighters rise to the occasion all the time. I don't know why that's such a mental hurdle for you. Foreman would have knocked the dog**** out of Tua, because Tua was a fat, lazy, slower, lower-output, not nearly as defensively adept, and mentally weaker version of Frazier. Although bigger, he did share the same left hook favoring style, and could be considered a one-dimensional fighter as is Frazier by some. Tua, in his highest profile fight and against the best fighter he ever faced in Lewis, tasted power in the first round (could have been the second, I don't remember), and resigned mentally. He was content to walk around, ho-hum for the remaining rounds and make it a million-dollar sparring match. Lewis was happy to feed Tua jabs and right hands and win an overwhelmingly lop-sided decision. Foreman or Frazier didn't have Lewis' mentality to be content to win comfortably, and they didn't have Tua's mentality to taste power and take their foot off the gas, essentially giving up.
Honestly, Tua would probably loose to every ATG from Sullivan through to Klitschko. He had a way of falling short in big fights.
Tua had more of the talents that you need to beat Frazier than a lot of other fighters. He was very durable, an extremely hard puncher, and he had a high workrate when you forced him to fight toe to toe -- which Frazier would. Also a fast starter. Frazier, on the other hand, had even better stamina and was a lot more skilled. He'd also rather die than lose. On styles, you'd have to go with Tua. Nevertheless, I'd go with Frazier in a surprisingly tough fight -- he'd probably suffer a couple knockdowns like he did against Bonavena. This has nothing to do with both fighters' quality. Few fighters match Frazier's weaknesses better than Tua. Both guys would take a massive beating, and Tua would lose all motivation after the fight. A couple years later, a young Foreman would destroy a fat, undermotivated Tua to get his shot at Frazier.
Tua is as low a caliber of fighter you can find who is in with a chance against Joe. You gotta favor Joe as the better conditioned, more skilled operator. But you got to take into account Dave is bigger, strong, and hit harder. The old saying you don't hook with a hooker would, in a super rare instance, be against Joe here. He didn't hit as hard as Dave with the left, and I think his handspeed was actually a tad worse. That said, his right was better, he was defensively sound, and had the ability to fight and train humble. Him and Eddie Futch would have a plan to stay away from lefts till Tua was sucking wind, and then put on the right kind of pressure to take over. Be a fun first four rounds, though.