Frazier, circa 1968-1970, is not the slow starter he's so often mindlessly stereotyped as. Jerry Quarry took round one by frenetically unloading 93 punches to Frazier's 64, hardly a slow start by Joe, so much as a completely unsustainable opening pace by Jerry. Only the ropes prevented Manuel Ramos from sustaining an opening round knockdown at Frazier's hands. [In fact, most referees would rule that as a knockdown today.] 13 seconds after the opening bell, he had Ziggy on the deck, then put him back there for the full count before the round was up. For whatever it's worth, he also took the opening round over Bob Foster. Ellis did take the first round, but that was more due to Jimmy's application of his speed and boxing skills than any cold start on Joe's part. Beyond all that, Frazier's an ATG, a completely different league of accomplishment than what Shavers produced. The question here in my mind isn't about who wins, but how and when Joe stops him. Do Frazier, Durham and Futch plan on the notion of Joe as a "slow" starter to shock the predictable expectations of Earnie and Frank Luca to catch him cold? Joe's cross-armed defense would likely stop the kind of uppercut Shavers flattened Ellis with. As others have pointed out, he'd be under Earnie's long rights. Shaver's on the back foot here. He wouldn't make Frazier utilize angles like Stander, Chuvalo, Cummings and Foreman in their rematch. Physical strength alone was not sufficient [as Cummings learned against a creaking legend, as Chuvalo discovered well over a decade earlier], and Foreman used his punch in relentlessly aggressive combination with his physical size and strength. For Earnie though, it was pretty much all about his punch, as he didn't tend to shove people around. [In fact, based on Frazier-Quarry II alone, it might be Joe doing the quick shoving at close quarters.] Earnie would be going inside against a superior hooker. Late, mid rounds, or early, I don't see any version of Shavers lasting to the final bell against peak Frazier. [Lyle would have a better shot at going the distance with his combination of superior skills, strength and selective use of power, if Ron's aim was to survive like Bugner. In fact, I do think Lyle would wind up playing defense against Frazier as a matter of course, as Joe made the fight a pretty one-sided outhustle on the cards.]
Shavers would not withstand the pressure IMHO. Shavers' chin doesn't make him the favorite in this fight; nor Shavers' Ring IQ. Frazier wins by KO
Frazier (swarmer) vs Shavers (slugger) Power: Shavers Chin: Frazier Speed: Frazier Technique: Frazier Accuracy: Frazier Footwork: Frazier (irrelevant in this match) Stamina: Frazier Versatility: Shavers Ring IQ: Frazier Body shots: Even Defense: Frazier Combinations: Shavers Finishing ability: Shavers Heart: Frazier 9-1-4 advantage Frazier. Normally a slugger would give a swarmer nightmares, especially a slugger who has a reach advantage with tremendous power like Shavers. The problem is that other than power and combinations, Shavers has virtually no advantages in so many of the things that matter in a boxing match. He is essentially trying to win with a shotgun against a guy who has multiple guns with way more ammunition, better aim, faster recoil, etc. To Shavers credit, his chin, stamina, and heart are often underrated as we saw in the Williams, Ali, and Holmes fights that he was capable of really digging deep to try to win against the odds and paced himself much better, but Frazier still edges him in those categories even against the best version of Shavers. Conclusion: The only thing I'd be worried about (aside from Shavers absurd power) is the Frazier sometimes started slow and Shavers was more than happy to launch bombs the moment the bell rings. I expect Shavers to score a flash knockdown in the 1st or 2nd, then is all over Frazier who barely survives. But unless Shavers manages to follow up and finish him (quite unlikely prime vs prime), Frazier slowly gets into his rhythm ripping away with fierce body shots, hooks to the head, and combinations. His bobbing and weaving make the often wild Shavers miss, rapidly depleting his gas tank. Frazier grinds him down and stops him within 8-9 rounds in a very rough and exciting fight.
I think Joe has a couple of rocky moments early on. All in all though, I don't think Earnie would be capable of dealing well with a guy who's head is on his chest constantly. The first round that Joe is completely warmed up sees Earnie getting knocked out. I'll say 5. I love both of them.
Frazier would smother Shavers from the opening bell, getting himself deep onto Shavers's chest, forearm framing him and thudding him to the body and ripping him upstairs with the hook, and I don't see that pattern changing until Shavers hits the canvas. Shavers had some decent whack but he needed to be the aggressor to land his best shots as his main danger punch (the OH right) came from launching himself into it from midrange, then thudding away with bodyshots and hooks in close, usually when he'd pushed an opponent back to the ropes. He tended not to be the most effective on the backfoot, which is where he'd find himself against Frazier. His money shot is also not suited for a shorter bobbing and weaving opponent, so that takes away one of his major weapons, and his left hook would also probably whiff over Frazier's constantly bobbing head. There's a possibility his uppercut might land, but even if it hurt Frazier I can't see it putting him down for the count.
A mediocre finisher with poor stamina up against a guy with a mean body attack and limitless stamina, who absolutely will get up and continue the fight if knocked down? I don't see how Shavers has much of a shot. Also, unless it ends quick somehow, the dramatically different stamina levels between the two would be decisive. With each passing round, Shavers would become more tired, weaker, slower, while Frazier would get stronger, faster, more active. Eventually you get to a point where Shavers is dead tired and Frazier is smokin' -- somewhere around round 6 or so. Earnie probably doesn't make it out of that round. You couldn't pick a worse opponent for Shavers. Well, I guess you could send in a prime Holyfield or something, but short of that, it really doesn't get worse for Earnie.
I think someone like Ray Mercer would be even worse than Frazier or Holyfield. He had an insanely durable chin, probably hit harder than either of them, had decent skills, good stamina, etc. Mercer takes his best shots and then beats the breaks off of him in an ugly, brutal war at ring center.