Jorge Linares vs. Mercito Gesta

January 27th on HBO WCB. This will be the first boxing card to air on HBO in 2018, and third overall broadcast on United States airwaves in the new year. (Rival network Showtime will beat them by a couple of weeks, first with the Claressa Shields vs. Tori Nelson unification bout - which despite pitting two unbeaten champions against each other might not be a huge ratings draw to kick off the season, for obvious reasons - and then with the Spence Jr. vs. Peterson & Easter Jr. vs. Fortuna IBF title doubleheader)

Linares will be making his third WBA lightweight title (and Ring Magazine title) defense, a voluntary. Gesta, the #14 rated contender, is the larger framed man and is a heavy-handed southpaw, but has only faced one boxer of Linares' boxing acumen or pedigree - and Miguel Ángel Vázquez thoroughly dominated him in 2012, in his lone defeat.

The co-feature will be Lucas Martin Matthysse vs. Tewa Kiram, to determine the mandatory contender for Keith Thurman. Matthysse is WBA #3 at welterweight, and Kiram is currently in the one slot. (here's a rough sketch of a scouting report on Kiram: https://www.boxingforum24.com/threa...ting-report-on-the-thai.598865/#post-18927263)

 

This is a nice action doubleheader, and neither are terrible opponents, but Kiram and Gesta both are stylistically made to order for the favorites and probably a full two levels in class below to boot. I expect Matthysse and Linares to shine en route to stoppages. (but a cautious expectation, as they each carry a certain air of unpredictable vulnerability...)

 

Wait, they're not both super middleweight belt holders?

edit: I see, Nelson's belts aren't on the line for whatever reason.

 

I think he's lucky to be able to claim his voluntary is top 15 ranked tbh. Gesta despite having just the one loss to a respected boxer is probably limited enough that we can say he's safely outside a lightweight top 40 h2h. Just happens that with alphabet soup rankings he squeaks in near the bottom the WBA scoreboard. If there were just a couple more decent contenders active in the last year and jockeying for position in WBA-sanctioned bouts he could easily be an outsider.

 

I'm worried about Kiram springing the upset more than Gesta for sure, but not because Kiram is great or anything. I'm just worried Matthysse could be a spent force.

 

I'd be shocked if Linares came even close to losing a round (barring him catching a flash KD).

Hell even with being dropped by Gesta he would probably still only lose a round 10-9 because he would probably thoroughly outbox Gesta for the other two and three quarter minutes.

 

...and while I fully expect that Linares having to get off the canvas (and offset that with banking enough points) is a realistic threat all throughout, I don't think Gesta has close to enough finishing ability to put on the flourish- nor enough raw power that he can put Linares to sleep with a single blow.