It might. The guy whose chin won't hold up is Jackson's. I think Lopez is a live underdog in this. The biggest thing to me anyway, is that he just was not the guy getting his hand raised frequently enough. Hang tough? Sure. Give a good account of himself? Yep. But winning? Especially in a DKP bout, I'd go with the hawk. The batting average of guys beating the DKP fighter was extremely low.
I really liked Lopez, and this would be an exciting matchup. Lopez would definitely come to fight. But, Lopez was no defensive wizard. He didn't roll with the punches. He was there to be hit. Even the strongest chin can be cracked. (See Hearns-Duran) Nobody Jackson's size is taking flush shots from Jackson and not going down. Jackson KO 5.