You forgot to mention how mean and badass Tony looked. You also forgot to mention the time how he beat up Pipino Cuevas when he was six years old and that at his absolute peak (his career-defining performance coming on that night he raped his neighbour at knife-point after breaking into her home) nobody could touch him.
I think prime Lopez would win. This guy had an iron chin and was just as crazy as Ayala. I don't think Lopez would be intimidated by Ayala at all. Lopez would be at a strength disadvantage, but he's faster and extremely durable.
Lopez would have whipped Ayala's ass IF he could be busy enough. The guy could fall asleep during fights but when he was fighting only the best of the best could hang with him.