Joseph Dennis Parker vs. Hughie Lewis Fury

The challenger is three years the champion's junior, has the hometown advantage, is a switch-hitter, and is bigger (to the tune of an advantage of 2" height in and 4" of reach) with the busier & more educated jab that he can land from a probably wider array of angles, plus a defensive style built around using his length & minding distance and landing pot shots with the jab and long uppercut on the body prior to slide-stepping or swaying back outside the opponent's range. The champion, however, is blessed with quite likely double as much natural striking power and quite a bit more hand speed as well, and is able to deploy his own very capable body attack delivered more sharply - not to mention having faced by far the higher level of competition, his greatest struggle to date being with Carlos Takam (compare with Fury, who struggled in victory over Fred " In Every Way The Poor Man's Carlos Takam" Kassi) - a close but clear verdict in a rare distance bout, as was his capture of the vacant WBO title over unbeaten Andy Ruiz Jr. last year. The question remains whether the slick-for-his-size Hughie indeed represents a step up from the likes of Takam and Ruiz Jr., a question that ought to be thoroughly answered come Saturday.

I think Fury might bag a few early rounds while Parker is sniffing him out and solving the puzzle of the Brit's awkward movement, size, and jab. Ultimately the Kiwi should, however, begin to catch up to Fury (whom so far has never been confronted with or had that slickness tested by any relentless pressure from anyone boasting Parker's athleticism or foot speed that was also close to his own size) and either a. cut up that acne-ravaged epidermis, b. wear down Hughie's questionable stamina with attrition of body shots, or c. reveal whether Tyson's cousin has an upper limit on his punch resistance of less than "Hagleresque". By hook or by crook, I think Parker stops him mid-late - whether by facial damage, towel due to Hughie shelling up taking abuse on the ropes after fatiguing, or a straight up old fashioned KO if Parker starts to get in bombs and Fury proves to have less than an iron chin.

 

I just see more paths to conquest for Parker. As outlined above, there are up to potentially three different methods of stoppage in play (two of them very plausible, based on past evidence of weak skin and flagging endurance; the last depending on the the as-yet inscrutable uncertainty of whether or not Hughie's chin is elite) for him, while I don't see the feather-fisted Hughie really finding any way to stop Parker, unless the uppercuts downstairs mount up and Parker's own conditioning (which isn't perfect to say the least, but I suspect is the superior gas tank in this match - we shall just have to see this weekend) utterly shits the bed, perhaps due to Joe punching himself out stupidly chasing after Fury early while the latter is still able to shuffle, jab, and lean his greater height away in a hard-target manner without much wasting of energy. In the event it ends prematurely, I'd say there's at minimum 80% likelihood that's going to be in favor of the champ.

Now, should it reach the cards, you still have these factors to consider on both sides:

This will be in Manchester (pro: HF)
This will have Terry O'Connor as the ref (pro: HF)
This will be Hughie's first match in 17 months, and Joe's sixth in that same time span (pro: JP)
This will be scheduled for twelve rounds - a distance Parker has gone thrice, while Fury has at his own farthest thrice gone ten, versus much weaker stock than Parker's 12-rounder opponents. (pro: JP)
This will pit Hughie's volume and shooting at different altitudes (pendulum body uppercuts and high jabs) from awkward, unpredictable angles versus Parker's snappier and lengthier power combinations - two styles that each have legion pro judges preferring them. (pro: ???)

If we go to scorecards, I call the outcome 50-50. That is a big if, though, and if we don't Parker is all but assured his 2nd title defense.

 

Yeah, it requires some hard spins of the hamster wheel. For me it comes down to, counterintuitively, totally ignoring how either looks in their best/most flattering moments and examining instead their worst times, when their respective flaws shone through most or they faced their depths of adversity in their careers so far. Parker had those moments in tough, long fights against Takam and Ruiz. Pretty respectable/forgivable. He clearly isn't a world-beater, let alone budding ATG unless he improves a ton of things (and yes he's young at 25 but I think what you see now is pretty much what to expect to get from him going forward, give or take a tweak) but he never had as embarrassing a time as Fury looking clueless before the interruption with Fred...again, less than half the fighter Takam is (and directly comparable as Takam is literally a stronger material die from the same mold). With exactly how much salt are we taking Peter Fury's claims that we have only seen Hughie at 30% or whatever until now because of the weird health stuff?