Joshua a clear betting favourite to beat Ruiz

Discussion in 'British Boxing Forum' started by Unforgiven, Nov 28, 2019.


  1. Unforgiven

    Unforgiven Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    It looks like Joshua is currently 2/5 to beat Ruiz this time.
    Ruiz is 21/10.

    I'm not sure which way these will swing during the week, but the value bet is bound to be Ruiz in this.
     
  2. TBC-ASAP

    TBC-ASAP Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Have the Vegas casinos got odds yet?

    Could easily see them having Ruiz closer to 5/4
     
  3. destruction

    destruction Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    UK betting odds will have AJ as short because almost all the money will be going on him

    US betting odds will have Ruiz short or the same as AJ, because alot of people will be betting on Ruiz.

    Odds in this case are about protecting potential losses, based on geographical betting preferences.

    It is a difficult one to call given the first fight. But as a neutral observer I favour AJ to win a decision in the rematch. But often rematches result in the same result as the first fight.

    I doubt Ruiz makes the mistake of coming in very light in the rematch- I think this is some form of psychology he is looking to play on AJ.
     
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  4. Scissors

    Scissors Ex British Forum Poster. Full Member

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    If you scroll down on here the pie chart shows you where the money is going. It doesn’t tell you exact percentage but it looks to me like 55% Ruiz 5-10% Draw and 35-40% backing Joshua so imagine Ruiz’s odds will shorten somewhat by fight night.

    This content is protected
     
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  5. Momus

    Momus Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Get the bets in on a Ruiz stoppage early, as those odds are bound to shorten
     
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  6. PolicemanPrawn

    PolicemanPrawn Member Full Member

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    Ruiz was 26.0 in the first fight and no one wanted to back him. He's now 3.2 in the rematch and it seems everyone wants to back him.
     
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  7. Unforgiven

    Unforgiven Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    I'll get down there and put something on him then.
    Not much, because I've always felt AJ has a decent chance.
    Ruiz should get it done again though.
     
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  8. TonyHayers

    TonyHayers Well-Known Member Full Member

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    A lot of big heavyweight upsets don’t necessarily result in the same decision though. Rematches of close fights can often mean the favourite first time wins again, but I’d say more often than not when a guy who was Joshua’s odds loses the first they win the second. Lewis Rahman springs to mind.
     
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  9. BaronSamedi

    BaronSamedi Member Full Member

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    At no point ever, in his entire career has Ruiz been 25/1 to win
     
  10. ryanm8655

    ryanm8655 Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Yeah, but AJ wasn’t caught by a Hail Mary from nowhere and splattered on the canvas, he was outthought and outfought. He got battered.

    I’d prefer AJ to win but my head says this has more in common with Price vs Thompson than Lewis vs Rahman.

    I’m putting a cheeky £25 on Ruiz by KO/TKO/DQ
     
  11. PolicemanPrawn

    PolicemanPrawn Member Full Member

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    Bet £10?
     
  12. Twentyman

    Twentyman ‘He’s just not that popular’ Full Member

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    Been doing a lot of driving this week and have exhausted the podcasts to the point where I’ve just listened to the Toe to Toe Sky Sports pod...Christ on a bike. Andy Scott said that Ruiz could have thrown that same shot a hundred times and not hurt Joshua like he did in that fight, **** off you massive whopper. How biased is that? Yet he totally ignores the fact that both Whyte and Klitschko hurt Joshua big time with the left hook. It’s not a 100 to 1 shot, it’s a weakness in Joshua’s defence that fighters have tried to exploit.
     
  13. Unforgiven

    Unforgiven Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    The idea that the loss was purely the result of that one left hook is nonsense anyway.
    No one wants to give Ruiz the proper credit.

    If you watch the fight, Joshua actually came back and did well in the 5th round, took the round and landed some strong punches. Joshua had regrouped a bit and was doing okay.
    And then Ruiz came back in the 6th with the most beautiful breaking down of a fighter you are likely to see at heavyweight.
    It's worth watching the 5th and 6th again. That's how it is done.
     
  14. Patter983

    Patter983 Active Member Full Member

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    Ruiz will win comfortably again for me .
     
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  15. Citizen Smith

    Citizen Smith Active Member Full Member

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    Lots was said about Ruiz's "lucky" punch to AJ's top of head which had AJ losing equilibrium. I am translating "losing equilibrium" to "got hit hard in the head, in a place where it is really quite uncomfortable".

    Ruiz did exactly the same to just as tall Dimitrenko. Maybe he is lucky or maybe he is not.



     
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