Hearn has said that Joshua's comeback opponent "won't be in the top 15" so we can safely assume an opponent who is outside the top 25 or top 30. Coming off a life and death 12 round war with gimmick journeyman Dave Allen, Makhmudov fits the bill. On paper Joshua is a clear favourite. But he's been inactive since September 2024, when he was beaten up badly and KO'd in 5 by Dubois and he will be 36 years old. Makhmudov will have a go early on and has a big punch.
I think Mak gets Ngannou'd, and probably earlier too. Mak is entertaining and a nice guy and all, but if he lasts more than a round with Joshua, I would be SHOCKED.
If Makh goes balls to the walls from the opening bell, a KO1 victory isn't out of the question, he has to power to violently chin AJ. But if he plays it safe and tries to outbox him, which he'll probably do, AJ by horrific Helenius style KO between 4-6.
If Joshua has anything left he should stop Makhmudov early. If not, then there's a chance Makhmudov just goes for it and lands something to take him out.
In fairness to Makhmudov's chances, Joshua has had a lot of trouble with bigger HW's: - Breazeale took him 7 - 41 Wlad put him down heavily and was his hardest ever win by far - 39 Helenius took him 7, busted him up - Dubois battered and KO'd him in 5 - Fights with Fury, Wilder and even David Price never materialised/were avoided
I dont think Mach will trouble AJ at all and I fancy AJ does a demolition job on him before the halfway mark.
Maks one chance would be to storm out immediately with all guns blazing. No way he's avoiding AJs right hand otherwise. If AJ lost this one he'd have to retire immediately.
You're trying to hard to justify the matchup. Makh has the WBA intercontinental. Its a comeback fight. No more. No less.
Makh can be a fast starter which any HW especially AJ hates, but AJ really should counter Makhmudov badly quickly enough. My prediction hasn't changed from before the fight - AJ early KO from a massive counter.
Helenius didn't actually do half bad in that fight prior to the KO. I agree if Makh goes for broke early he actually has a decent chance. But I imagine the ring will be very big to allow AJ to maneuver in the early rounds and stay out of harms way.
The sensible money is on Joshua by most likely a brutal KO; but Joshua's chin has been crumpled by lesser punchers than Makh. If Makh rolls the dice early on he certainly has the power to KO Joshua if he properly connects.