Julio César Chávez Carrasco vs. Vanes Norikovich Martirosyan

If this was a natural 168lb kayo artist in the other corner, like José Uzcátegui, then yeah, maybe. That isn't, however, what Mister Carrasco is. He's a guy that wasn't even all that savage a 1-hit destroyer at 160lbs, and while he may well have always been a weight-bully and super middleweight wolf in MW sheep's clothing, there's no reason to believe he is suddenly going to become a sharp puncher rather than a leather-eating war-of-attrition type wearing opponents down with moderately heavy-handed accumulation of arm punches, especially considering he's 4-2 with zero knockouts when campaigning over the MW limit. Any mystique about his power stems from stopping Lee and dropping Maravilla late - but those both have more to do with those guys, while elite talents capable of boxing figure-eights around the vastly less skilled Mexican layabout mooching off Papi's name, being front-runners with finite gas tanks & shaky chins (both true of Lee to a greater extent, but Maravilla's chin is undeniably less sturdy than Martirosyan's, and despite his stamina built up from years of bicycling & soccer before taking up the manly art of self-defense and despite the arms-down style meant to conserve energy, was still taxed & maxed out by eleven rounds of nonstop movement) more than him actually hitting that hard.

 

I'd be very surprised by this outcome as well, possibly even more than Carrasco stopping V-Mart - but pleasantly surprised.

V-Mart was himself a medium puncher at MW (although probably had slightly fiercer stuff at the weight than Julio, and certainly better punching technique) and the one thing you can say the payaso has going for him - besides loads of nepotistic connections - is an iron chin, which historically for him seems impervious to any of the usual weakening through weight drain that affects most guys. Were it cracked enough to give V-Mart an in, there would've been signs against Canelo, at least a KD or something, I'd figure..