~ Kelly PAVLIK v. Jermain TAYLOR ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

Hopefully Taylor ends Pavlik's career.

 

Pavlik by decision and this time nobody goes down.

 

How this fight plays out depends on what JT does. I can see 3 possible scenarios.

1) JT bull-rushes Pavlik and tries to recreate round 2 of the first fight. Kelly won't act like a jackass by dropping his hands and sticking his chin out a second time, so a round 2 type debacle never happens. In this scenario we are treated to a slightly shorter version of the first fight. Pavlik KO's Taylor in 5 or 6.

2) The second scenario would shock most people. Taylor keeps his left up, and stops going straight back when he gets stung. He moves in and out with lots of lateral movement. He uses an uppercut inside like Manny told him to before. (That's a punch Kelly is very open to.) when he is done punching he either ties Pav up, or gets the hell out of the way. In this scenario JT would manage to frustate Pavlik's work-rate and accuracy somewhat so it takes 10 or 11 rounds for the accumulation of punches to catch up with him. Pavlik takes him out in the 10th or 11th round. Remember, if JT sees the opening bell for the 10th, he will have done something no fighter before him has done!

3) Taylor may still be emotionally traumatized from the first fight. If he is, and he comes in tenative and fighting scared, Pavlik will trap him in a corner, turn the ring into a ****ing phone booth, and blow JT out in under 3 rounds.

The first scenario is the one I think is most probable.

Boo

 

ANALYSIS OF PAVLIK vs TAYLOR II


What do you think each will bring to the table?
Pavlik: Physical strength, height, superior technical skills, superior finishing skills, better punch variety, punishing power, toughness, stamina/conditioning, a longer/harder left jab, a greater punch output, consistency, and confidence

Taylor: Better overall athleticism, quicker reflexes, a solid left jab, better counter punching ability, superior hand speed, superior defensive, toughness, heart

What do you expect their strategy to be?
Pavlik: Pavlik will take his time in the beginning, not getting overly confident and giving respect to Taylor's explosiveness and decently heavy hands. However, he will be the one coming forward, albeit in a methodical/technical manner. He will keep a double jab going in order to keep Taylor occupied. A single jab increases the risk of getting hit with counter overhand rights (a punch Taylor had success with in the first fight), so Leow wants him to double it up. He will be focused on throwing straight punches down the pipe following the jab. I expect him to work the body as well. As the fight progresses, he will continue with a high punch output, but will also begin to cut the ring off and try to hammer Taylor in the corners. It is against the ropes and in the corners where he wants Taylor.

Taylor: Taylor will be a little more careful early on and not go at Pavlik right from the opening bell. I see him fighting off of the backfoot, trying to keep Pavlik at a distance with his left jab and picking spots to counter his left jab with an overhand right. I see him moving his head, because I doubt he keeps his left hand up, trying to slip Pavlik's punches and return with 2-3 of his own. Taylor will likely throw with bad intentions knowing he can hurt Pavlik, but he wont put everything into every punch because he knows it will only tire him out. Expect a gameplan similar to the 5th round of their first fight. He wants to make this a fight in the center of the ring where his handspeed advantage and athleticism will be apparent.

How could each win?
Pavlik: Wearing down Taylor with a steady accumulation of punishment after methodically breaking him down or by knocking him out with a few big right hands.

Taylor: Outboxing and effectively counterpunching Pavlik while staying off the ropes and avoiding a vast majority of Pavlik's powershots. He must also not retreat to the ropes when he is stunned/hurt and he needs to fix some of his defensive and positioning flaws/weaknesses.

How do you think this fight will play out?
Much like the first with Pavlik being the aggressor working behind the jab and Taylor picking his spots to attack but mostly looking to counterpunch off of the backfoot. I don't see a knockdown in favor of Taylor. Instead, Pavlik keeps the pressure on him and lands hard straight right hands following left jabs. Taylor will gradually tire and a stronger Pavlik will take advantage.

What is your prediction?
Kelly Pavlik TKO6 Jermain Taylor

 

:good

I'm going with the 3rd scenario..Everythings fine with JT now..Just had a kid..got his old trainer in charge(who by the way never taught him to keep his left hand up)And he has apparently found boxing again..Great..then he steps into the ring with the only fighter to not only beat him but hand him the beatdown he's never suffered since lacing up the gloves...It hits him when he's in the ring first waiting on the New MW champion to enter the ring..His legs will tremble like bambi

 

Right on the money brooklyn. I say rd.7 KO.

 

YOUR DREAMING!!

 

pavlik ko inside 4

 

Pavlik by KO again

 

You and ah... The judges were the only ones who actually saw Jermain win more than 3 rounds ( at best). You can't teach an old dog new tricks i.e. Taylor. I don't care who trains him he will revert to the fighter that he always is; He will box early and fade in the middle to late rounds. If he (Taylor) thinks he has some advantage @ 166 he is sadly mistaken. Kelly is so strong now and he will only have to lose about 8 lbs. He will get to Vegas right on weight. This hasn't happened in a long time- Look out Team Taylor.
PAVLIK KO 6!!!!!

 

In the first fight I picked Pavlik, however I expected him to be more dominant and after reading the full fight report from many different journalists and watching it on youtube, I now believe that the result will be reversed in the rematch.

I believe Taylor will be more patient and not expend too much energy early on like before. He will try to use his superior speed to outbox Pavlik early and not try and blow him out of there like before. He now knows what Pavlik is capable of and more importantly knows he can hurt Pavlik. It will be tough for Taylor but I think his determination will see him through to the later rounds, after some good rounds for Pavlik, Taylor will eventually pick up his pace and after conserving energy will stop Pavlik around round 9. I do not think he was really up for the Ouma and Spinks fights, but Pavlik sure woke him up. He will be more determined than ever not to lose again.

 

:thumbsup i totaly agree with this scenario...i think it will be pavlik by ko in 2nd or 3rd...kelly knows more what taylors speed is like and like some one said he will not make the second rd. mistake...also taylor has alot on his plate right now and i think he is going in as trying to ko pavlik and pavlik going in knocking him out early..i dont think taylor should of rushed this rematch but he did...and kelly never went more than 9 rounds because there was no need to..but if he had to he could the boy is phenomenal .. he is so natural that he never seems tired or out of breath so if anyone was going to out box some one it would be pavlik out boxing taylor ...