I think you might be understiamating kelly's jab, speed, and toughness. Plus, whos to say he wont improve on his weaknesses if this fight was to come about. I think he wins a sloberknocker, although I have a lot of respect for Andrade, kelly has beaten the better opponents.
I agre on everything Amsterdam has posted. But im not 100% certain that Andrade beats Pavlik in 8 or less. But. I mean - How on earth will Pavlik be able to take the pressure from Andrade. We all saw Andrade getting his ass whooped so bad and yet he kept coming forward! Kessler is by far a better defensive fighter and a technically more superior fighter than Kelly Pavlik. It not even up for discussion. Its fact. Kelly may have a slight power advantage but what the hell does it matter, when the guy standing in front of him is Andrade? You know, Pavlik wont even land the same amount of shots as Kessler did. BTW - Andrade is no bum. Just because Kessler made him look silly doesnt automatically mean that he's a bum. People stating this didnt see the fight. Andrade is as solid as they come + KO power and a terrible awkward style. Andrade KO 10 Pavlik.:deal
I actually made a poll about this fight: http://www.eastsideboxing.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19708 But dudes - slow down on the Pavlik hype. The guy is a very good come forward fighter with a solid jab and very impressive power. Furthermore he apparently has chin and a good offensive game + killer instinct. But NO defence, speed, footwork. He would get slaughtered by Calzaghe or Kessler.
Give me a break, Pavlik is going to start getting backed up as early as round 2 and it's a downward spiral from there. Andrade in 5. I hope it gets made and hope we get odds. Furthermore, I hope the loser of MK-JC gets Pavlik, we'd still get good odds for a dead certainty.
I believe that the beating Kelly took in the 2 against Taylor prooves that he might be able to go as far as the 10'th round. I was impressed by Pavlik getting up after those shots. He is no easy man to kill.:deal But yeah - If this fight is made Im gonna bet heavy on Andrade.
Here is the thing Astola, Taylor is by no means a puncher. Couldn't put a dent in Ouma or Spinks, took 9 rounds to stop the chinny Raul Marquez and then there are other examples also. Andrade hits 3x as hard as Taylor, Pavlik has good survival skills, but he will be KOed mid rounds IMO. Andrade will win regardless, Pavlik will be backed up and can't fight well backing up.
Let's look at some factors - - Zuniga has a poor defence, is small and has little power. - The crude as hell Oganov(I picked Zuniga in this and have evidence) was still able to land some clean single shots on Zuniga here and there and stun him, Andrade is 4 levels above Oganov. - Zuniga can be bullied and pressured. - Andrade needs something serious to stop him coming forward relentlessly, what does Zuniga possess to do this? Nothing. - Andrade has disposed of Zuniga level fighters many times. Basically, I think you're off base and know little about analysing and picking bouts if you really believe Zuniga beats Andrade.
No, he was really hurt and was lucky to survive, watch it again if you get a chance. Andrade renders Pavlik useless just on making him fight backwards alone.
It's crazy to think about the sort of support beating an American name gives you. You'd probably get around $3.00 on Andrade for this bout if it was to happen, and looking at the way each fighter matches up Andrade by late stoppage is the most probable outcome.
Andrade was just folowing Kessler around blindly, getting beaten up and didn't show any boxing intelligence. To beat Pavlik, you'll need some boxing intelligence.
Pavlik tees off on Andrade's melon same way Kessler did. Here's the difference...ref, Doctor or commission would be forced to stop the punishment being absorbed by Andrade thus giving Pavlik a TKO win.
To be honest I havent seen much of each fighter but made a quick desicion from what I remembered. I was very impressed with Zuniga in that fight wether Oganov was overrated or not and I think if he can fight like that 12 rounds hed beat Andrade. And as for me knowing little about analyzing fights. I knew exactly what would happen in the Taylor fight and it did. You picked round 5, I picked round seven(not sure if I posted that or not), knowing Taylor was going to be prepared well and wouldnt get caught until he started to fade but definitly would not be able to handle as much of a beating as Miranda did. I also knew how bad his recovery skills and defense were enough to know that as soon as he got caught with a punch, Pavlik would finish it without him getting up. I rest my case.