Kelly Pavlik vs Sergio Martinez who wins?

Vincent Gottschalk · Dec 29, 2009

Who do guys think wins this fight?

yorkshire_boy · Dec 29, 2009

If he fights smart, Martinez in a relatively close points decision.

realsoulja · Dec 29, 2009

Martinez moves up in weight, tht may be a problem

but he showed against williams he knows how to box, and Pavlik can be outboxed

Hermit · Dec 29, 2009

Pavlik by KO just going by his past record and the belief Martinez will get systematically broken down and tire...

itrymariti · Dec 29, 2009

Here we go again...

itrymariti said:

On the face of it, Martinez presents quite a tricky stylistic conundrum for KP, who can be a bit of a plodder and isnt particularly fast (either in terms of handspeed or in terms of movement/reactions). Martinez moves quickly, slips punches fluently, delivers quick pot-shots or combinations and then gets to the inside where his opponents cant hit him. Pavlik looked very vulnerable to that kind of package against Hopkins.

But one of the most under-rated aspects of Hopkins' game that he employed in Hopkins/Pavlik was his strength. Hopkins is not a particularly big Light Heavyweight, but against a guy who should have been fighting at 160, his size advantage was noteworthy. He was heavier, more comfortable at the weight and much less sluggish that the bloated Pavlik. Crucially, this allowed Hopkins to get Pavlik's respect. There was a reason why, when he dived in with a left hook or straight right, Pavlik didn't just shake it off and throw something back over the top. When Pavlik tried to reply, it was too late; Hopkins had hit him hard, out-muscled him and then tied him up.

This strength is something that Martinez lacks. He's not even that big a puncher at 154; he's not going to hurt one of the biggest Middleweights in the last few decades.

That brings up a problem. If Martinez cant get Pavliks respect, whats to stop him just catching everything and throwing it back? Without significant physical strength (not to mention lopsided height disadvantages), whats to stop Pavlik simply shoving Martinez off of him and unloading?

There are other problems, too. Martinez is very slick, and stopped Paul Williams landing for significant parts of the fight. Thats no mean feat: Williams is quick, and throws from all different angles, mixing up his combinations. Admittedly, Pavlik doesnt do that; nor does he have the fleetness of foot that Williams did to close the distance. But his ability to avoid a beating deteriorates pretty rapidly as fights wear on. Even after just Round 5 against Pdub, he was panting like hed run the Boston marathon, and then been forced through about 15 assault courses. His legs were pretty much gone, and he had to resort to walking backwards rather than giving varied lateral movement. (It happened even earlier against Margarito, and that was when he was in his athletic prime.) When that happens, your defence goes to rack and ruin. You cant switch from outside to inside quickly enough, and you end up hanging around in the pocket.

Now, Pavlik is able to apply as much pressure as Williams and Margarito did. He has thrown in excess of 90 punches a round against tougher, stronger guys than Martinez. And when you get tired and stuck against Kelly Pavlik, youre in deep ****. If you stand in front of him without moving, youll catch a jab, and the right hand is inevitably the next present. If you go inside, youll take a serious beating to the body. (Most of Pavliks opponents dont get that far, so we dont see him punching to the body that often; but when clinching does become an issue, such as in KP/JT II, hell dig hard.) If you go to the ropes (which Martinez did against Margarito), youll get an absolute working over to the body and head.

I dont think Martinez can just outbox Pavlik for 12 rounds. Its not impossible: as I mentioned above, Pavlik isnt as fast as Williams, and might not be able to apply pressure in the same way. But KPs power and consistent work rate, and Martinezs lack of sufficient physical strength to slow the pace are the main reasons why I see an eventual stoppage in this one. In the first few rounds, Martinez will probably be beating KP to the punch. Eventually, Pavlik will start to catch him on the inside. Martinez will be feeling both the heat of Pavliks fists and the pace of the fight by about half-way, and his ability to avoid confrontation with both his head and his legs will quickly disappear. Pavlik has knocked out much more durable guys than Martinez with one punch, and so I think a stoppage will become inevitable after the early goings.
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hoopsman · Dec 29, 2009

I like Martinez to score early and often and perhaps even win the first 2-3 rounds convincingly.

In time, however, Kelly catches Martinez more frequently and delivers a knockout or pounds out a decision.

Hozumi's Hook · Dec 29, 2009

Martinez UD. 116-112 or 115-113. Few scares along the way. Maybe 115-112 for Martinez as Pavlik knocks him down early.

FoxMulder · Dec 29, 2009

Sergio Martinez will school Pavlik.

itrymariti · Dec 29, 2009

Hozumi's Hook said: ↑

Martinez UD. 116-112 or 115-113. Few scares along the way. Maybe 115-112 for Martinez as Pavlik knocks him down early.
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I was thinking more 115.25 - 112.3. (Divided by pi.)

burzumboy · Dec 29, 2009

****ing button. i meant to put martinez on points, and it comes out as a draw. piece of ****.

itrymariti · Dec 29, 2009

FoxMulder said: ↑

Sergio Martinez will school Pavlik.
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That was your first post?

Shut the **** up noob!

CrocodileFace · Dec 29, 2009

Pavlik by KO.... He plots around but his power is undeniable. and when fighters come up in weight their opponents power is always an issue. This is the case even more so when their opponent is known for power as KP is.

Hermit · Dec 29, 2009

burzumboy said: ↑

****ing button. i meant to put martinez on points, and it comes out as a draw. piece of ****.
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I just love people that can't do a simple poll. atsch

thesandman51 · Dec 29, 2009

Pavlik by KO.

If Williams can knock Martinez down and hurt him at 154, Kelly will destroy him at 160.

burzumboy · Dec 29, 2009

thesandman51 said: ↑

Pavlik by KO.

If Williams can knock Martinez down and hurt him at 154, Kelly will destroy him at 160.
Click to expand...

they were fighting at middleweight

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