Ken Norton vs Ron Lyle in 1975 - who would have won?

I've seen several threads over the years about this fight.
From what I've read all along, Lyle seems to be a 60-40% or 65-35% choice which surprises me. Norton's KO's by Shavers & Cooney can be written off in my opinion.
Lyle decisioned a lot of contenders. He KO'd a gassed and spent Shavers on home turf. He nailed Foreman with a Sunday punch, a wacked-out post-Ali Foreman. IMO if Lyle had fought a pre-Ali Foreman the ending would have been much the same as Norton-Foreman.
I can see Lyle rocking Norton a time or two but I think Norton's ring saavy would prevail in the end. Kenny decision or late round TKO.

 

LeDoux took on Lyle and Norton back to back in 1979. Scott dropped Ron early (a fact omitted by issboxWRECK), and Ken late (after thumbing Norton in round eight). What's interesting is that Scott took everything Ken had for seven rounds with nary a flinch, while Ron was able to wobble LeDoux repeatedly with single shots. This direct comparison made it clear to me that Lyle's power was obviously superior, even at that late stage. Ron took out Garcia faster than Norton later would. Lyle knocked out O'Halloran in the fourth. A few months later, O'Halloran would take a much more experienced Norton the ten round route. (Lyle had just nine fights behind him, while Ken already had 25.)

I see Ron's greater firepower forcing Norton back, giving Ken no choice but to retreat. Additionally, Lyle had the mobility to draw Norton into traps, and he countered Shavers well off the ropes. Ron had good ring smarts and versatility. Ultimately though, I think he'd likely rock Norton considerably more than a time or two. According to issboxWRECK, Ken was dropped no less than 14 times in his career (Dutra, Eastling, Garcia I X3, Brown, Foreman X3, Shavers X2, LeDoux X2, and Cooney). While I doubt the complete veracity of that, it is a fact that Norton entered the professional ranks with a fully matured body, unlike Patterson.

Even against Quarry, Ken's knees buckled a few times, and he actually dipped twice after getting hit by Jerry just before it was stopped. (In round five, while Ken was pummeling Jerry, when referee LoBianco initially moved in to stop it, he halted his action because Quarry landed a shot on Norton's chin which momentarily sagged Ken. That may have been the best version of Norton we ever saw, yet there were still flashing signs of vulnerability and weakness.)

 

If Ken could avoid or block most of Ron's big shots,I can see him beating Lyle over the distance.

 

Lyle backs him up and Kenny has a highly effective going forward only style. His retreating backing up footwork is terrible.

The reason Lyle doesn't have a ton of ko's on his dossier is because he fought a ton of guys not easy to ko. Most punchers are exclusively matched up against catchers and guys that have a history of being stopped. Ron Lyle didn't get to face those guys. That Lyle sneaky left hook will land on Norton sooner of later and it'd be all over. It was a fight Lyle wanted for a long time and it never did happen.

 

Thought Norton said he was in his best shape against Ali in 1973.

 

There's an old sparring story and Quarry caught him with that quick lefthook of his. But apparently Kenny was not a guy that was always terrific in sparring and was the type that saved it for fight night.

 

I still see Norton beating Quarry if both were at their best. It would obviously bemore competitive than thier actual fight.

 

Lyle had good whiskers and with the Knowledge that Ken could not back up nor go forward vs a puncher I think he presses early. I can not see Norton winning because of his style and Lyle. Norton could pressure Holmes and Ali because of his rhythm breaking style but his chin failed him vs punchers. Norton could not adapt his style to back up for long.

Lyle wins...Exciting fight while it lasts

 

I think Lyle's chin is just as suspect as Norton's to be honest, something no one else has seemed to consider here (unless I missed it).

One good sharp right hand from Ali sent Lyle into a tailspin.
Norton caught his fair share of similar rights from Ali (in 39 total rounds) without such a reaction.

Lyle got KO'd early by Lynn Ball and Gerry Cooney in his twilight years, Norton by Shavers and Cooney.

 

Jerry had an early peak, and that peak had gone by 1973. (I wish Jerry's early 1969 domination of Mathis would emerge on youtube.) JQ certainly had the power to hurt Ken, while his chin seemed able to absorb anything Norton could dish out. Still, I think Jerry may have needed the defensive elusiveness we only really see him display with Spencer. Even though Quarry was younger than Ken, he had a lot more miles behind him when 1973 had rolled around. Norton didn't have near the firepower of Lyle, Shavers or Mac Foster, but he was a much better boxer. With a shot at Foreman on the line, I would have steered Jerry clear of Ken in 1973. (As far as I'm concerned, JQ's win over Lyle should have gotten him the shot at George which Roman somehow landed.)

Ken always wanted Jerry in the ring, suggesting that maybe he knew in his own mind that he could handle this particular opponent, maybe though a sparring experience. (Liston was another who desired a late career match with JQ. In sharp contrast to this, Foreman was very reticent about the idea of taking Jerry on when the subject came up in interviews at the time. It's one thing for George to say today that he purposely avoided JQ when he was champion, and for fans to dismiss it as characteristically charitable of Foreman, but his demeanor when it mattered supports his claim of deliberate ducking.)

 

Lyle was pretty solid early on he was hurt by Quarry badly and staggered but held on for the UD loss, He was down against Shavers but got up to beat him. He got off the floor 2-3 times vs Foreman and I think there was argument that the fight could have been stopped in Ron's favor a few times, I have seen much quicker stops. Against Ali he was staggered but stopped on his feet. I think Ron's problem was he was slow, he was slow vs Quarry, Foreman, Ali and fit into the mode, where as Norton got stopped by most of the near prime punchers he faced. Norton had good reflexes and a good defense against speedier guys it was the punchers some of them slow that he could not back up against

 

Quarry was a spent fighter by the time he met Norton and had developed some bad habits with his show-biz heavy-partying wife-cocaine use and drinking. I do think however that Norton would have been a harder fight for Quarry had they met in there prime because Ken was faster than Lyle,Mac Foster, and a lot of the big guys Quarry beat. I think a prime Quarry would have enough power to hurt Ken and change the momentum of the fight but style wise Ken would be a tougher fight for him.. Quarry was more of a counter puncher not a pressure puncher and with Norton you need pressure although Jerry had the one-punch power to change the momentum vs Ken