Only seen this now. Khan is fast and much improved under Roach, but even with this, against Paulie he took a fair few shots to the head, which under those circumstances (paulie being exceptionally feather fisted) he wasn't under much serious risk...but if he takes even a fraction of those hits (and he is still far from unhittable) from Maidana, he'll be at the very least stunned...and more likely knokled down or out. Khan will probably want to be moving a lot in this fight, hit and move continually, though he doesnt (in my opinion) have great footwork and/or head movement. I think he will end up being backed up into a corner, and will have nowhere left to go, to avoid punches. For all of his limitations, Maidana can quite effectively cut off the ring, and stalk down his opponent well, dragging them out of the gameplan and into a brawl. Khans hands are, as you rightly pointed out much higher, but he can still be hit. He will be under more pressure (knowing maidana has real KO power) and although technically limited, Maidana could, and in my opinion, will, force a mistake by Khan, and he will quickly exploit this, that in my opinion is when the KO will happen...its just a matter of time.
Khan's inactivity may play a part, he's in his prime and this lay off may be bad? I hope not as i want him to be at his best come december. Ramadhan completes at the end of the coming week so he has a few good months to shed the rust off and build some weight back on.
If you want to know how this fight will be fought, rewatch Khan vs Kotelnik. That is almost exactly how Khan will do this fight. That performance is Roach's 'base level',safe,secure lowered risk plan that he has attempted to ingrain in him. For a fight against someone like Maidana they are going to go straight back to that, Hit, run, hit ,run. It boils down to this for me..Even though he's the better boxer, faster, physically fitter.. I do not see how he can go 12 rounds without taking problems from Maidana.. which is where Khan unravels. I think It'll be Khan every round at the start, even taking a few shots and looking okay and then somewhere as the fight goes on, he'll take one, he'll stray from the plan, start taking more, and down he goes
In my view the fight is not going past 6 or 7 rounds, Khan will hit him clean too much, Maidana has a very open defence, very hittable, and with him walking on to Khan's shots. Remember Maidana does not have the best of chin's also, Khan will keep landing that right hand.
Khan has got to keep composed for aslong as this fight goes on. If he does, he win's it... If not, he get's his head knocked off... Can Khan do it? Well this is where we find out just how much the Prescott fight has effected him. Khan has'nt fought a well known puncher since then. Khan got hit against Malignaggi and Kotelnik (fair enough they're both faster than Maidana is) due to lapse's in his concentration. He can't do that with Maidana, if he does he'll be flattened. I've only seen 7-8 Maidana fights', from what i see he seem's to be able to cut people off and lay it on heavy with them, but he'll of never been in a ring with anybody of Khan's speed. In my opinion it all boil's down to wether Khan can stay composed enough for the duration of the fight and not let Maidana hit him. Maidana know's he'll never outbox Khan so he'll be looking for that one mistake from him, and if he see's it, i'm sure he'll take it