'King' Arthur ABRAHAM vs. Kelly 'The Ghost' PAVLIK for Supremacy @ 160

Simon shattered the one punch myth. Even Miranda went down several times. I don't see AA taking Kelly out with one shot. Even if hurt, he has shown he knows how to survive and shakes it off well.

 

Talks for the unification are under way, I just read. Dunkin talked to Pavlik Sr. and Kelly, they both seemed to be fine with a fight in October/ November. I pick Abraham because his ring smarts seem to prevail against Pavlik's "physicality". AA showed that he performs well under pressure, his first US fight was a complete success and fighting handicapped also seems not to affect Abraham too much (Miranda I), therefore I go with Abraham by late tko.

 

He wasn't hit by Abraham. In a fight both fighters will be motivated, if Pav is hurt by AA, he is all done. Surviving JT's shots is one thing, surviving AA's is another.

 

Miranda kept fouling like crazy in that fight. I actually watched the fight live and would have been happy for Miranda to win, but I have rarely seen that much blatant dirty work from a fighter. He was lucky not to get disqualified.

 

You don't watch fights very thoroughly, do you? AA uses looping punches once his opponents are hurt. Watch the Miranda rematch again, AA first knocks him down with a short punch that was basically invisible. That is his style, he is very economical with his punches and doesn't miss much. Kelly is tall and that might be a problem for AA, on the other hand, Kelly doesn't often use his height and reach to avoid being hit, he likes to trade. He could beat the fighters he beat with his style because he was tougher/stronger. Same for AA. Now they both fight a man who is in their own league of physical toughness, it's going to be really interesting.

 

I think Pavlik's gonna get hammered. KO'd brutally.
Close call, just a gut feeling.

 

Abraham ko. Pavlik's crude and wouldn't take his punch imo. Abraham being Abraham it would go longer than it ought.

 

You don't watch many fights do you? That was one fight with Miranda. AND I was responding to a post that said those looping shots would be Kelly's downfall. So you don't read threads any better than you analyze fights do you?

 

Each one of these guys presents a unique set of challenges the other has not dealt with. Pavlik normally beats seven shades of **** out of short power punchers, but he hasn't faced one as durable as Abraham. Arthur has never faced a tall, heavy handed, high work rate, long armed guy like KP. In fact, Arthur has only faced two fighters over 6', Kingsley Ikeke and LuJaun Simon. The similarities between Pavlik and Ikeke start AND stop at being tall. Simon was ranked #43, and is only 6' 1".

Many of those who predict a Pavlik win predict a win by decision. I disagree. Both of these guys are very good at what they do, and what they do is leave the vast majority of their opponents slumped in a heap on the canvass. I would be surprised to see this go a full 12 rounds, and KP has a higher KO ratio against better opposition. Miranda hurt Arthur BAD. Kelly would have finished him.

When AA was busy with Marquez, who was a mandatory, Pavlik fought Hopkins. When KP was busy with Lockett, also a mandatory, Arthur fought a rematch with Miranda. When Pavlik was busy with the rematch obligation to Jermain, Arthur fought Elvin Ayala (Zuniga was the rightful mandatory.) During the period when Pavlik fought consecutive fights with Zertuche, Miranda, and Jermain Taylor, Arthur fought Demers, Gevor, and Elcock. Kelly recently ***** slapped the WBC #1 contender into submission while Abraham lost 4 rounds to a guy who had been living off Bronco McKart's left overs. Neither guy has what I would call a stellar resume', but Pavlik is way ahead of AA where quality of opposition is concerned.

Arthur is tough, but tough ain't enough. He has numerous bad habits that Pavlik will make him pay for. He throws a lot of wide looping shots that will not reach Pavlik and will leave him wide open to a jab-right hand that comes right down the pipe. He also has a bad habit of lunging in with his head and shoulders sticking way out past his feet. If he does that against Pavlik, his corner will have to gather his head up out of the front row.

Pavlik is a stalker who applies constant pressure. His methodology is simple. Stalk 'em, stun 'em, put 'em on the ropes and unleash hell. One thing I noticed about Arthur is that the slightest amount of pressure sends him to the ropes or a corner. That's where Pavlik's victims go to die! Several of Arthur's opponents had him on the ropes, and just let him go because they could not engage without getting in range to be countered. That will not be the case with Pavlik who has a 3" reach advantage. In addition to a gross reach advantage, Kelly has relatively long arms, and Arthur has short arms. Kelly normally has to bully guys back to the ropes. Arthur will most likely volunteer to go exactly where Pavlik wants him, and you can't counter what you can't reach.

An opponent MUST NOT let Pavlik trap him on the ropes. Arthur has to do everything he can to keep the fight in the center of the ring. One problem here is that it takes speed and smart movement equal to BHop or Taylor in the rematch to pull that off. Arthur does not have the needed attributes or skills at that level. A second problem is that going to the ropes is what Arthur does naturally. He WANTS to go there. That's a recipe for disaster.

These frequent comparisons between Abraham's defense and a prime Winky are either pure nuthuggery, or made by people who don't know much about Winky. Winky has ungodly long arms, and that is a big part of the reason the shell defense works so well for Wright. AA does not have long arms. Unlike Winky, Arthur cannot put on the ear muffs and protect his body at the same time. He has to choose. Choose to protect the head, and the body is vulnerable. Chooses the body, and the head is vulnerable.

For a long time there was some debate over whether or not Pavlik could split AA's guard with his jab. We can put that argument to rest right here and now. LuJaun Simon has a KO ratio around 50% against **** poor opposition, and he split Abraham's guard and snapped his had back multiple times. Pavlik's jack hammer will break through AA's guard with relative ease. We can also look for KP to throw some well placed lead rights and left hooks up under Arthur's respective elbows, and to beat on Arthur's shoulders in the first few rounds. In addition, that long left hook Kelly throws is VERY effective against a high guard. AA is not going to be able to hide behind is ear muffs for long periods like he normally does. If he tries that, it's going to be a short night.

Pavlik really needs to watch himself on a couple of his bad habits too. Sometimes when the right hand misses Kelly falls in really bad. When that happens it leaves him way out of position and off balance. That's a perfect time for AA to exlpode without notice. However, if he catches Kelly with one of those near-perfect right hands he occasionally launches, he must not get sloppy with the follow up. If he does, Kelly will make him pay for it. Or, at the very least, survive and recuperate.

KP must not stop to admire his handy work. Seriously! If you watch Pav closely, you'll notice that once in a while after he throws a particularly nice right hand, he pauses for a split second, leaves his right hanging out in the middle of nowhere, and just looks at his opponent. Not a good idea against a guy like Arthur.

Finally, Pav should probably avoid his normal bully routine. Kelly does not mind takin' an ass whoopin'. He's perfectly willing to throw defense out the window so that he can keep throwing punches and bully his opponent into the position he wants him in. That's probably not the best way to approach Arthur. Kelly probably needs to slow down a little, focus less on work rate, and more on defense and accuracy.

I could say a lot more about these two, but this post is already to long. No middleweight in a 12 rounder has ever finished on his feet against Pavlik. Only two saw 8 rounds, and they both quit on their stools after 9. Pavlik will knock Arthur out in 6-8 rounds, not a TKO, a slumped on the canvass "knocked the **** out" type knock out.

 

The only way AA wins is if he lands a counter shot as Kelly is resetting. AA is 5'9", short reached and defensive. Kelly is 6"3", long reached and active. Miranda was very effective against AA when he used his jab. Miranda was even able to get through AA's defense and land rights after throwing or pawing with the jab. Miranda's problem was he backed straight up and AA followed with counter punches. And Miranda threw wide-looping punches.

If Kelly stays on the outside, uses his jab (doubles it up, feints it, works AA's arms), he will beat AA decisively by decision. Possibly by KO.

 

AA's conditioning will be a part in this. If Kelly can make AA work, I see AA fading and getting increasingly vulnerable. If he loses enough rounds waiting to land the 'perfect punch' he has no choice but to open up and be more offensive in the later rounds.

 

Miranda split AA's guard with jabs, but one would expect Miranda to be able to do that. One the other end of the spectrum we have LuJaun Simon. Now here's a guy with a 50% KO ratio against poor opposition; a guy who had been living off Bronco McKart's left overs, and he split Arthur's guard and snapped his head back with jabs multiple times. The debate over whether or not Kelly can split Arthur's guard is OVER!

 

To be honest: If AA would perform like he did against Simon, Pav would win - and easy.

BUT: If AA would fight like he did in his fights against Ikeke, Gevor, Marquez, he would prevail, most probably by KO.

I think he will do much better than in his last fight. One thing we haven't discussed yet: his trainer is very very experienced and one of the best out there. Imho he's much better than Pavlik's.

It would be a tough fight, but in the end AA would get his chance to KO Pav - and he would use it.

 

Had I read your entire dissertation... I wouldn't have responded.