'King' Arthur ABRAHAM vs. Kelly 'The Ghost' PAVLIK for Supremacy @ 160

We'll see.

I just hope this happens, I see good betting opportunities. I'm pretty confident Pavlik wins this these days.

 

Not bad. Kelly's people 'imposed' patience on him in the last fight. They told us he would "box more" and even managed to work the word "yoga" into the mix. I PM'd P2K urging him to tell Miranda to be patient in that fight. Might have at least changed the length of the fight if not the outcome.

Kelly definitely needs to use his reach advantage and patience both in this one.

 

I think the main thing Pavlik has to watch out for is getting complacent and getting in too close where he can get caught with a quick, straight punch. AA showed he is capable of that against Miranda. He got wild AFTER he hurt Miranda with that shot. That is why the patience Pavlik showed during his last fight was important. Somehow people just saw it as a 'bad' performance because Rubio lasted more that 4 or 5. atsch

However, I can see AA starting to do that towards the end of the fight if he feels he is losing on the scorecards. I think that is a possibility TFFP didn't include in his analysis, but of f course, AA may feel he is winning by doing what has always worked for him in the past. Hard to tell.

 

I tend to think if AA was well behind on points going into rounds 10-12 he'd just take that. He'd start slowly as always, give it his absolute best in the middle rounds and if that fails he'll settle for it.

You can only have so much energy to throw hayemakers, and if your best ones didn't work I think he'll realise what is happening.

 

As a fan of AA I would draw a different conclusion of the fight with Simon. He seemed very weak and therefore shiftless to me, like never before. In my opinion it was mainly because of making weight that gives him more and more problems.
I agree with you that he won´t have any chance against KP, who really is the toughest fighter at that weight, in this shape.
But your point, that he might fight as in previous fights, is illusionary.

I fear, he`s wrong about himself to insist on the unification at the MW and I hope he won`t regret his decision sometime.
If I look at his progression I think he should move up in weight immediately.
Concerning his career he should have done this already at the end of the last year, in my opinion.

 

First of all, whoever thinks that AA beats Pav easily is a dreamer, but AA can beat him and vice versa.

Pav wears his opponents down and loves to put pressure on fighters with a more defensive style. His jabs are powerful and accurate. AA normally is a type of fighter Kelly loves to fight.

AA loves to counter-punch and when he does that he counters with bombs. His defensive is excellent. He loves opponents who come at him.

Both guys are made for each other and in the end we have to wait until the fight happens to decide who of the two is better in what they do. As a fan of AA I root for him and think he would KO Pav.

 

The key factors are (and there are 2 of them):

1. AA's actual shape come fight night: Abraham needs to be in top shape, not weigh drained as I got no doubt that Kelly will work his way done and come to the ring at about 100% - he's just got it to make 160 far more easy than AA. This will define speed and explosiveness which AA would have an advantage if he works his ass off and comes to the ring without having suffered the kind of dehydration he did in some of his last fights (Simon and Elcock come to my mind).

2. Pavlik's effectiveness when working AA's body:
It's merely a secret that AA suffered alot of damage to his ribs, most of them in sparring before the rematch vs. Miranda. Those never really healed out as you could see vs. Marquez and partially vs. Simon (though, it was more watching the picture of AA's body itself before the fight, as Simon missed alot of oppertunities to work to the body). So if AA can't fix those issues (and I doubt that it's really possible to do it) and Pavlik can go to the body with ease, maybe hurting AA early on to it, I think that not even combined with the weigh drain, it might very well be a long and painful beating.
Question is: can Pavlik do it or is he maybe going to get catched by a hookercut or short right in counter action by AA when Kelly tries to close the distance to make it happen?


These are the key points and beside the always mentioned chin and power level departments it just comes down to these...

:deal

 

I've come to the same conclusion. Look at the weigh in photos when he was at 166 vs Miranda. Big smile on his face, comfortable. Now look at him in the first Marquez, (I don't remember seeing pix from the second go round) weigh in and the Simon weigh in. It may not be a question of losing it properly. It may just be too much now. Think Oscar/Pac. Supposedly Oscar was at weight a week before. Easy to believe since he didn't really gain much before the fight. He had just lost too much.

 

I don't think power is going to be a decisive factor. Both of these guys bang. Who is going to ultilize it more effectively. I would say Pavlik, on a more consistent and thoughtful basis.

 

That is the best I or a lot of people who watched the fight have seen abraham perform:huh

 

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he connects. And it will be one of those looping, amateurish, haymaking **** punches that Kelly will see coming a mile away. Pavliks prob fought stronger black fighters coming up that tried to take his head off with punches like Abraham throws & it didn't work for them. And your forgeting about the size difference. AA will be lucky if he even touches KP, let alone land a bomb.

 

Quick someone get in contact with AA and tell him he will not even "touch" Pavlik because Pavlik is this defensive master:rofl. Man if this is not nuthuggery at its best I dont know what is, **** I thought my man Boo was a biased fan!atsch
RUBIO was catching pavlik at will, the problem is Rubio was in there for a paycheck.
EASTSIDE BOXING AT ITS BEST HERE!:happy

 

having only seen Abraham fight once, my uneducated guess will be Pavlik by decision.

 

kelly by points.

 

pav by ko, aa will go 8. to much of pav is a bad thing. nobody at 160 can beat pav. to tall, to much reach, to much size. pav walks in the 170s. pav got a left hook he perfected over the years cause his right hand was always hurt. he can put aa down with a left to the ribs. It wont be a broken jaw that aa will try and hide, itll be broken ribs diggin in his side. on the stool end of 8.