I think pretty highly of Rougarou already. I also don't put a ton of stock in having a pair of victories (unofficially; albeit officially a 1-1 split) against Barthelemy, as I never truly rated Kid Blast despite him putting together a good resume, plus there is the all too common fallacy pitfall to be avoided in putting a guy on the world class pedestal just because he so happened to have the number of a single world class opponent. Take away Barthelemy, and Relikh had stepped up exactly once and fought on even terms (even if he should've gotten the nod) versus a past-it Burns. Having said all of that, however, I'm nervous about this match-up for Prograis for some reason. I think it all could all go horribly wrong for him, in this one.
I was fairly high on Relikh before he faced Burns, he kind of reminded me of a lighter punching GGG, but he made a quantum leap up in competition going from facing bums to Ricky Burns, and I think the moment got to him a little and he gave away too many rounds early, but righted the ship and came on strong late, IIRC I think I had it a draw, The 1st Barthelemy match while most thought it was a robbery, I didn't... I think I had it for Rances by a point, that being said, I was expecting Relikh to perform well, whereas most of the other posters on the RBR had never seen him, so I think they overvalued his performance a little, and gave him a little too much credit, because they were expecting an easy win for Barthelemy. I picked Relikh in the rematch, because he closed stronger the first time, and was the guy with room for improvement. The point is, it takes Relikh a little while to settle into a fight and figure out the style of his opponent and in that process usually gives up too many rounds, and against a savage puncher and a southpaw like Prograis, he can't afford to let that happen, because he may not see the 6th to adjust in. So I'm siding with the Rougarou here.
Let's say he does escape the first half though - becomes an interesting contest, doesn't it? We haven't seen Regis in deep waters yet. I guess the closest has been w/ Abel Ramos?
Relikh was hurt by the body shot that dropped him against Rances, so that's definitely a concern with Prograis, because I can see him driving a straight left into his belly repeatedly. Ramos was the last guy that took him deep, but that didn't work out too well for him, quite frankly they should have stopped the fight around the 5th, all Ramos did from that point on was receive a vicious one sided beating, the same fate probably awaits Kiryl if he's durable enough to make that far.
