Know your fellow poster

Gambling is just another form of investment that resides on what is called the investment efficiciency locus (which is a curve that defines the relationship of the risk and return attributable to different investment instruments such as bonds, property, equity/shares, basically anything and everything where that asset can yield a return but where that return can vary to different degrees embodying a different risk profile ie gambling is high risk high return.

The reason I started with that description is an investor must first define their own risk tolerance and in most instances it is best to develop a diverse portfolio of risk exposures in different asset classes ie gambling can be a very sound component of that portfolio. Simply put an individual must ask themselve why they are pursuing a high risk high return investment strategy - is it balancing other elements of their investment portfolio, natural interest in the medium/sport which is the subject of the betting, kudos when success (ie bragging rights), a desire to take risk for its own (adrenalin fuelled sake) etc etc. Once that process has yielded a decision then one must ascertain what objectives are the be met ie what is the target rate of return and the goals. Ultimately one must decide what comparative advantage one has to be successful - how can one have a better understanding and measurement of the probability of events than the market (ie the book maker) does. I have been approached by bookmakers in this regard to act as a consultant as they appreciate I have that capacity. Unless you understand the market better than the market itself you can not win over the longer term.

If you want to gamble then be meticulous, anally so. Do fastidious research and always ask the simplest of questions "What are the factors that will result in me being wrong". In gambling it is the games or events you choose not to gamble on that will have a greater influence on your success than those events that yu do actually gamble on. I always recommend keeping notes as to the reasoning of making a bet and then revising those notes after the event with a retrospective analysis. Always record the amounts your bet, the odds, the outcome and the reason/how that outcome resulted and compare it to what your thought before the event. This all take time but you otherwise you a viewing the odds against the prospect of successful gambling. Lastly, be philosophical when you lose because that will help you learn from the experience to improve your performance for the future.

 

I was formerly married to a very psychologically disturbed person so I hope your experience has been a learning one that hasn't left scars too deep