Kovalev vs Cleverly for the WBO LHW strap.

Whilst your doubts over Kovalev are absolutly justified, and your assessments of Clevs strengths reasonable according to what we've seen, the validity of the betting odds will only be discovered on fight night - they sure as fvck ain't gonna be proven right or wrong by us talking 'bout it.

For me the lack of certainty over this fight is what makes it especially exciting, and the closeness of the betting odds just bears that out. Gonna be a nail-biter on the 17th.

 

I agree.


The first few rounds will be telling.

If Nath can handle his POWER he'll be winning the fight in my eyes.
He's a better boxer. He's faster and has a better engine.
If Clev gets hurt early its going to be a long(or early) night for one of the guys.
To me Kovalev's got a punchers chance. He's not a better boxer then Clev.
I've never seen Kovalev fight on the inside before.
This is Clev's specialty.

Clev's going to be all over that big lumbering Russian all night not allowing Kovalev to unleash the power.

 

You completely sure Clev throws more than Kovalev?

I erm.... have a mate who uses compubox and apparently their punch stats are pretty similiar over a 4 fight spread - in fact edging towards Kovalev if you allow that about 1 in 3 of his rounds actually last a lot less than 3 minutes.

(That said, I myself cannot see how Kovalev can fight at that pace over a longer fight - It would actually be quite amusing if he comes out boxing Russian Am technical style just to fvck everyone up)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNO5bVPP-uw (figure it out)

Look at about 1:32. (Kovalevs got experience beating military champs tho. - former World Military Champ)

 

He was out on his feet against that Polish guy, if he takes a solid hit from Kovalev he's going to be up and down off the canvas all night.

 

The first round will be very telling. Cleverly won't hold Kovalev's power for long, if at all. Saying you have a good chin (when you have never faced a world champion\world title challenger let alone a big hitter) is a bit silly. No-one wants to take punches, your punch resistance should be the last line of defence. He probably has a better engine and is faster, agreed. Kovalev is probably a better fighter than Cleverly and has crushing power. Kovalev will be stronger and will hit Cleverly with everything. It would be wise in close to bash Cleverly to the body. Kovalev has gotten to everybody so far. Cleverly takes the longer route on most fights. Cleverly takes a long time to finish opponents,with Kovalev it's fight over as soon as he connects a few times. He's not just a one punch blaster, he's more a really solid, heavy hitter with some extremely good combinations and he has excellent balance to throw powerful combinations from angles that cause serious damage. Kovalev to blast Cleverly out of there, multiple knockdowns.

 

The Kuziemski (that polish guy) scenario is the one that I really hope doesn't happen. To be fair Clev was winning handily, but he was badly buzzed in the third round, and the ref stoppage (nelson Jr) was clear BS. Not that Clev wouldn'ta won anyway, but someone wasn't willing to take that risk. If Kovalev gets cut there's the worrying possibility of a premature stoppage (that said, I ain't seen Kovalev cut or even bruised up yet).

My feeling is though that especially with the recent Boxnation deals the UK promoters/broadcasters are looking to increase transatlantic co-operation and broadcasts. I think F Wank won't be wanting to **** on HBOs shoes right now by pulling a blatant robbery, in fact, more likely he'd want to show that the UK is a viable venue for international fights.

Follow the money.

 

A worry perhaps. A forced Cleverly flurry, Kovalev on the ropes, a quick stoppage. A cut, cannot continue, or even deducted points for fouls.

With two heavy hitters you may have a cagey first round, but with one big hitter and a lighter punching boxer, what will happen? I don't think Kovalev will want to give up too much ground. But I don't think he will go all in too early. Maybe a counterpunch battle with Kovalev throwing the power combinations when Cleverly makes a mistake and is open to the shots?

Excellent match.

 

With you on that. This is a fight I'm really high on (not least 'cos I'm gonna be there on 17th) - it ain't so often in the UK you get to see a world top prospect fighting one of the top national fighters. And what's so special is they are both unproven in a lot of ways - it genuinely is an unpredictable fight.

Which T-shirt do you think I should wear?

 

Kovalev only gets off his power punches from distance.
Cleverly's not going to fight from a distance he's going to be swarming him all fight, working the body tiring him down for the later rounds when the class in the two fighters becomes more apparent.
I'm not denying Kovalev's knock out chances.
He's got real power.
But Clev's proved he's got one iron chin. Has the better stamina and is a better boxer.

The only way Kovalev is winning this fight is by KO.
He's not winning this fight over 12 rounds with power punches. Lol

 

A Welsh rugby shirt!

 

If he gets multiple knockdowns he could.

 

I know what you mean. Kovalevs best punches come from a distance.

However - look at the last 3 initial KDs - each one of them has come by Kovalev beating his opponent to the punch in close, in fact almost face to face. He's taken people down by surprise with the tightest of hooks then just jumped on them as soon as they've had their first count.

http://www.you;)tube.com/watch?v=MJM11GhMGiU @7.20

http://www.you;)tube.com/watch?v=rJCWrDPG2GI @10.08

http://www.you;)tube.com/watch?v=ZNokhPAGwOM @12.20 Edit. Actually in this last one Kovalev simply overwhelms White with an extended combo, Clev style, but harder.

I'm not at all convinced that Clevs best bet is to fight inside, 'cos I think Kov has the experience and skill to determine the distance if Clev tries to make it a knife fight. Clevs strengths are his mobility, stamina and handspeed - these to me dictate his strategy.

 

All of those fights his opponent wasn't fighting back.
As you mentioned Clev's hand-speed is faster then Kovalev's so in most of the fight he'll be beating him to the punch.
Cleverly will be fighting for 12 rounds non-stop on the inside.
I think this is deep water for Kovalev because I don't think he can BANG for 12 rounds.
The longer the fight goes, the lesser effect of his punches.
Clev gets STRONGER later in the rounds.

 

I agree with what you say. But Cleverly will get hit, other fighters hit him, Kovalev will hit him and he will stay hit. It's doesn't matter how good your chin his, because Kovalev hits more than hard enough and then some to hurt any opponent. Kovalev will be hurting Cleverly with his punches, what happens when Cleverly is rocked with a jab, or feels Kovalev's power on the arms and gloves, will be still be throwing so much? He might fold for all we know. Kovalev will get hit by fast combinations from Cleverly, I have no doubt about that, but what makes you think a former Super-middleweight who claims to have a solid chin (that has not been tested against a world champion or power puncher) will be able to handle Kovalev's power combinations? He's not just known as a one punch KO specialist, a lucky puncher, he's a strong combination puncher. Look at a video of Cleverly against Murat. He looks great in there, punching Murat with fast shots. Look at Kovalev knocking White around the ring. Take your pick.

 

We know what Clev's chin is capable off.
Cleverly WILL be testing Kovalev's chin and body in this fight.
We'll have our answers then.

All of Kovalev's fights he's been in complete control from the outset.
I don't think that is going to be the case in this fight at all.
We've seen Clev fight under pressure and prevail.
Will we see Kovalev come under that type of pressure and still stay within his own game-plan?
I'm not to sure he will.