Most of the answers will already be Kovalev because of recency bias, but Kovalev is still the correct answer.
The Dawson that beat Adamek would win imo, but the current Dawson would get knocked out in 1 or 2 rounds
Dawson back then was much more focused, more fluid, and better defensively. It's no coincidence that when Dawson left Floyd Sr his skills went down hill and he's been underachieving since. Dawson leaving Floyd Sr was probably one the dumbest moves he made in his career, and he's made a lot of them.
A guy like Dawson requires confidence to be good. A lot of physical gifts, but he was also mentally weak. He lacked the will to be a fighter. He may not be physically shot, but he's pretty mentally shot. Chad is not the type of guy to come back well after a KO loss...let alone 2. Dawson will get KO'ed. I don't think Chad has the confidence to believe that he an beat Kovalev.
Even that Dawson was subject to lapses in focus, just less of them. I think Kovalev would do what Adamek couldn't and finish Dawson after he knocked him down, even if he was trailing on the cards at the time.
Chad was a different fighter in 2007 and prior. He really looked different when he switched from Floyd Sr to Eddie Muhammad. It's not that Chad needed Floyd Sr, it's just that he was switching trainers so much (prior to hiring to Floyd Sr) Floyd Sr was the last trainer who knew how Dawson should be fighting effectively. He fired his first three trainers (who were from Connecticut) most likely because they were too hard on him. Floyd Sr being the nonsense type of guy he is, I'm surprised Dawson hired him in the first place. Had Chad stuck with Scully (back in 2004), Floyd Sr, or any of the other Connecticut based trainers he would be a much better boxer. When Chad hired Scully back in 2011 that was a really dumb move. I see flaws in Kovalev that Chad would have exposed, he doesn't get hit a lot compared to Cleverly, but Chad right now can easily be broken down both mentally and physically. When Dawson is fully prepared and fully confident he can beat anyone including punchers, but I haven't seen that from Chad since 2007 (when Floyd Sr was training him). But Chad has made so many bad decisions throughout his career, he has no one to blame but himself.
That's a solid breakdown; though we may differ slightly on what his ultimate ceiling would've been (my main concerns were from the neck up), I'd agree that Dawson's career may well have been one of unfulfilled potential. It seemed like the sky was the limit after the Adamek fight. Outside of shuffling trainers, his poor business decisions were his undoing- kinda like selling James Prince 10% of his purses for $20,000 cash. Sometimes I get the feeling that so little of Chad's purses actually make it back to his own bank account that it's killed his motivation.
Kovalev would knock Dawson out easily, no contest. Kovalev would have knocked Dawson out in Dawson's prime. The best Dawson gets knocked out by Kovalev period.............
Dawson has always been a fraud, had way too much hype hes just yet another lacy, berto, jacobs, seth mitchell yanks hype their fighters too much, and they get inflated p4p rankings because its biased