I'm picking Kownacki to win by stoppage between rounds 3-6. And it has nothing to do with Martin's awful performance against AJ. I don't think Martin matches up well against Kownacki to begin with - and he hasn't been busy enough... 1) Maritn has been inactive for more than a year. 2) Martin's last two opponents were Marrone and Polley - Kownacki's last two were Kiladze and Szpilka. That's a pretty big difference in quality there. 3) Martin is an upright fighter and a plodder (for a man who claims his life revolves around R&B and hip-hop outside the ring...it's shocking how poorly he moves his feet). He's not a guy who's going to make Kownacki miss or get him turned around. 4) Martin tends to be a slow starter in fights; Kownacki is the opposite. 5) I don't think Martin has ever fought a brawler who throws 75 punches/round like Kownacki does. OTOH, Martin isn't too different from Kiladze - it's a look Kownacki has seen. I do think the fight could come to Martin if he makes it past rounds 6 or 7 - because Kownacki is going to start tiring. But unless Martin's counterpunching is *sharp* - and fighters who have been out of the ring for 15 months usually aren't *sharp* - he isn't getting that far.
On the Kow myself, got him by stoppage at +115 and tucked into a good sized parlay with Porter. Also arbed out for 50 dollars with Martin KO at +290. Just hoping for a knockout and I'll make out well!