Kubrat Pulev will school and batter Dereck Chisora

Chisora’s durability and athleticism declined significantly in the 7 months between Parker 1 and Parker 2 and he will be an additional 7 months older with another brutal, 12 round, 3 KD beating under his belt, where he sustained a lot more punishment than he did in their first fight. Being dropped 3x, hurt early and hurt so many times by Parker of all people should be very concerning.

A formerly inactive Pulev is coming off a dominant 10 round win over short brawler Forrest about a month ago (who was unfortunate not to get the decisions against Zhang and Hunter and who pushed a pre-Joyce Takam over the 10 round distance). David Price claims that Pulev is a consummate pro and likes to stay in shape, which has not always been true of Chisora.

Chisora has lost to Fury, Helenius (controversial) Vitali, Haye, Fury, Pulev already, Whyte (controversial) Kabayel, Whyte, Usyk, Parker (controversial) and Parker. In terms of the result, Chisora has performed worse in all of his most prominent rematches.

Pulev conversely has only lost to Wlad and AJ, in fights where he rose from the canvas 3 times apiece.

Chisora has only stopped 2 of his last 7 opponents: Price and Szpilka. Chisora has lost 10 times as the underdog and only won twice (Scott, Takam) in highly competitive fights, in days when he was much fresher. Chisora has lost his last 3 fights (all to favourites) and lost 7 times in his last 14 fights going back to May 2016.

Chisora's style is based on determination, durability, speed and stamina: attributes which age is not kind to. Pulev's style is based on size (3 inches taller, 6 inches more reach, same weight) strength and skill, which are relatively evergreen. Chisora showed no ability to overcome Pulev's attributes 6 years ago, losing between 9 and 11 rounds by consensus.

A robbery in London is not impossible: there is a narrative that their first fight was close and Chisora has been the victim of a few questionable decisions over the years, so maybe they'll feel sympathy for him. He's also younger than Pulev and somewhat of a cult figure in Britain. But I don't think a robbery is likely for a number of reasons:

The fight will not be close, Chisora is old and shopworn, Chisora has a ton of losses already, this is a Matchroom card and Chisora is a Fury opponent rather than an AJ opponent like Pulev, Pulev is relatively well-known and is fighting on the top of the bill, where most eyes will be on the event.

Pulev will be more confident having already schooled Chisora and probably more motivated too, as a loss to Chisora would damage his legacy and career far more than it would Chisora's if he loses again to Pulev. Chisora has more or less admitted that he doesn't care whether he wins or loses and fights for money, entertainment and the crowd rather than victory (a virtue of necessity if there ever was one). Pulev also knows that he won’t get any favours from the officials in London so he can't afford to be lax (though if this old and shopworn version of Chisora is taking a bad beating the officials may be more compassionate than usual and stop the fight).

Chisora only has a puncher's chance and the typically cautious Pulev must know this. He will be happy to nick rounds early on before Chisora gasses and he will constantly be looking out for the big swinging overhand.

 

It would have been interesting 5 years ago but Pulev is too static and doesn't carry enough pop. He'd win a handful of rounds with his jab but the bombs would catch up with him. To beat a prime Pulev you have to either be an elite pointfighter or a KO artist with the speed, power and preferably size to bust through him, which Wilder has in abundance.

 

I concede that Zhang and Hunter were not at their best but it doesn't mean that the performances were meaningless; Forrest showed a lot of toughness and determination in those fights. Forrest was also very competitive with Takam after the 6th round, who put in a good 4 rounds against Joyce a year later and was battering Chisora before the 8th round KO nearly 4 years ago. Many were picking Forrest to beat Pulev so he has a lot more left than people thought. He should be even sharper against Chisora now he's shaken off the rust and is in against a potentially more dangerous opponent on a much bigger stage.

 

The active, pre-Joyce Takam was a year older than Chisora (after a less punishing career) and Forrest still pushed him, making it significantly more competitive than the Pulev fight. And the version of Forrest who fought the inactive Pulev had the experience of facing Takam, Zhang and Hunter behind him. Takam was longer, stronger and more skilled than Chisora (so probably better able to win rounds) though not as durable (which matters less when fighting Forrest as he lacks stopping power) or powerful.

 

Nothing is certain in boxing, especially heavyweight boxing but I suspect that a washed Pulev beats a washed Chisora at least 7 times out of 10. If Chisora declines as much from his Parker 2 form as he did from Parker 1 to Parker 2, Pulev should stop him.

 

We can't know that for sure. Maybe the winner (or loser) of Pulev-Chisora 2 will be AJ's comeback opponent after he's lost to Usyk again.