Good question. I think Lacy has the edge. Hmm, why? I think Lacy is far stronger at 168 than Pavlik. Pavlik's style would allow Lacy to load up on alot of punches unlike against Calzaghe.
Pavlik by TKO Pre-Calzaghe Lacy and I would have favored him, but now, I see this looking like the Miranda fight and I see Pavlik backing him up and landing with straight punches up the middle. Lacy has power though, so he is not to be overlooked.
If Lacy is back in working order, Lacy by early KO. Pavlik won't be walking him down and lacks the defence to avoid the bombs Lacy will throw and judging by how Taylor had him hurt badly, that indicates that Lacy being a much harder hitter will likely finish the job. But if Lacy is ruined for good, then I'd go with Pavlik. For the record, I'd also take Vitali Tsypko over Pavlik, he has the size, chin and skills to win.