Toss up, I give a slight edge to Holmes based upon nostalgia (hey, at least I am being honest). I think Holmes chances increase if this is 15 rds, but over 12 I call it a toss up where I pick Holmes but keep my money in my pocket.
I think the feints would mess Holmes's style up badly. Can see him reacting to more than one and leaving himself exposed after a counter right hand falls short. Also not sure how well Holmes would react to constantly getting a stiff jab in his face while missing with his own, which is a very real scenario I can see happening. Then again, Fury has a tendency to brawl which would favour the quicker and sharper Holmes provided he's not overawed by Fury's physical mauling. It's a competitive fight, with a lot of possible outcomes.
I always assume these matches are prime for prime yet someone always reverts to a past prime version. In this case its Holmes. Now a pre prime version didnt seem to struggle too hard with the 6'5-6'6 Big Bad Roy Williams even though Holmes badly injured his hand early on.
Fury can fight, but not on "PRIME L.Holmes level. I see some of the " size kings" peeking their heads up again basing the winner of the fight on Furys height reach, and weight. Timing and quickness is much more important than height and reach when fighters are with in 9" 10 " of each . Holmes superior quickness better timing would consistently beat Fury to the punch. Or jab. The weight wouldn't be an issue because Fury doesn't use it to his advantage, not his style, if it was, Wilder would've been K'oed with in 5- 6 rds both fights. Holmes would win this fight unanimously in a 12 rd fight, stop Fury if the fights a 15rd fight. Holmes is a level or two better than Fury. The size advantage isn't as big an issue as some believe. In a long grueling fight it becomes a disadvantage.
As much a like Fury as a person and think its very possible he is the best HW of this generation, but even today he seems to be vunerable to Jabs. Wlad was too scared and Fury had defeated him mentally even before their fight, but you could see Wilder did land many jabs in the first fight, even if i believe Fury was far away from his best shape. The 247 lb Fury from the Wlad fight indeed would give Holmes much trouble, but i still think Larry wins it by UD. The 273 lb Fury from the Wilder 2 fight would arguably too slow and would get hit too much by Holmes´ jab, while Larry himself is too fast for Fury. Fury is amazing fast for his size, but not compared to guys like Ali or Holmes. I was laughing a couple months ago when ppl claimed Fury is as fast as Usyk. Total BS! Usyk is MUCH faster then Fury, handspeed, footspeed, overall moving speed, and MAYBE (i say maybe!) Fury would loose to Usyk today, i want to see that fight.
How do you determine prime though? It's not always so cut and dry. Holmes slowed as he became older but he also become more wiley. Lots of ATGs seem to follow a similar trajectory where their experience and overall fighting knowledge seem to increase as their physical skills decline, which serves to keep them treading water at the top while other, lesser fighters begin to decline.
In his decision-making as well. To me his easing off Cooney in the 2nd was a bad mistake, he could have saved himself further ring wear. To me the Snipes fight was also a tactical error, he never should have missed that shot from RS. That said, he ended up looking pretty great finishing Cooney and Snipes (not to mention Bey and Smith much later), and I thought he still looked easily like the best heavy in the world against Cobb.
I like Fury alot, but Holmes skillset and determination are insane! Gury might have a few good rounds but Larry would come on like the MOFO he is and get him drunk and knock him out
Fury might be too big for him. This isn't 225lb 6'5 Cooney, this is 250lb+ 6'7 ½ Fury and Fury is a level above Cooney in skill, it's not even close. Back then Larry Holmes was considered a tall heavyweight now he'd be considered small. But Coincidentally enough Fury struggled with 6'3 220lb Steve Cunningham. Cunningham was the only boxer to out slip Fury. He was so troubling to the point where Fury didn't try and outbox him he tried to get down and dirty. I think that shows fury struggled with short slick boxers. Id say Holmes UD but if Fury cleans out the division and retires undefeated I'd say Lennox Lewis is the only person who can beat Fury
Maybe Joe Louis, Foreman, Liston? Fury wouldn't have had enough power to keep Norton off of him, either. 60s Ali turns him into a staggering stumble bum in 10. Just my opinion, no disrespect intended.