Vitali was confident from the outset, so it is hard to see your point there. My point is that this was an even fight and Lewis was not even in shape.I do not think you have addressed that.
There is a huge difference in mentality when you are coming in as a massive underdog against an atg than when you are a slight underdog who lost controversially in a hard to duplicate manner. Vitali would have proceeded much more calmly and more defensively. As far as shape, I never thought it was a big deal either way. What would have really changed in the dynamic of the fight with Lewis in better shape? His weight likely helped him absorb the punishment vit was dealing him, and as Stewart noted, it helped him in the clinch. Personally, I think an "in shape" Lewis would be easier work for Vitali. Styles make fights, and while an thinner Lewis would be better against some fighters, I don't see how it helps him against the bigger, busier, iron chinned Vitali.
There was massive interest in a rematch. And only partisans would deny the first fight didn't beckon for a rematch. It reeked of unfinished business. If Lewis was confident he would win, he would have rematched Vitali and made as much money as he ever had in his career.
6 months later, with a full camp, Lewis I'd say. He beat him first time round and he always did better in rematches. In real life though it would have been about 13 months later and then I favour Vitali.
Vitali had 68 stitches in his face, inflicted by an overweight , unfocused champion .Lewis in shape stops him by tko again.
Maybe. But probably not. Winning on cuts is hard to do twice, and I don't see how being in better shape would have impacted this matchup much. But we'll never know, Lewis wouldn't go for the rematch.
My opinion: Six months later, given the way the fight unfolded, I'd say 50/ This. And Lennox was wise. And that's why I have Lewis at 3 and Vitali at 20.
PS It's a myth that Lennox wasn't in shape. He went in a bit heavier than usual because of Vitali's size.
Because: 1) It's obvious that Vitali > Lewis in the first fight 2) Winning by cuts when you're losing the fight is considered "lucky" 3) Lewis had been lipping off about how great he was and how he'd never been better 4) Lewis promised a rematch and never delivered 5) Other fighters that beat Lewis gave HIM rematches.
Lennox went into the fight the heaviest he has ever been at 257lbs. He was seen breathing heavily through his mouth from as early I think as the first or second round. Similar to when he fought Rahman at altitude. He also took the fight at late notice, so the idea he put the weight on specially for Klitschko is one of the most ridiculous things I've heard on this forum. What are you saying? He heard he was fighting Vitali so he decided to pile on the pounds a few weeks before the fight? How? By going down to Burger King? Also regarding the cuts, they take at least 9 months to heal properly when they are that severe, sometimes longer, otherwise they just open up again. Klitschko did fight 6 months later, but it was an easy fight, in fact if you go back to watch it, all the commentators were agreed that the fight was too soon. So Lennox in all likelihood has to wait 9-12 months for a rematch. By which time he is almost 40. You tell me a top boxer who is still in his prime at 40. The simple fact is his desire wasn't there any more, it is TOUGH to keep yourself going with that intensity day after day. Especially when you hit your mid 30s, your joints don't feel the same, your knees, your shoulders, your elbows, you get aches and pains everywhere when you've been putting that much stress on your body for that long.
He was at the end of his career and just did not have the desire for another hard training camp and tough fight. That explanation is just as reasonable as yours, if not more reasonable. Also, in terms of legacy another win over Vitali would not have done much back then. In retrospective, this might now be a little bit different